01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

The globals could be right with jumping the surface low east, but there's arguments to be made that short range models handle the convection better. We won't know for sure until tomorrow which is crazy.

And if the low doesn't jump east?

snow247 wrote:I hope the GFS goes 500 miles north..... lol

Btw, reading on the other board that the NAM is actually south.

Not true. If 12z NAM is south its by as much as a city block. Basically Its not south

Frank_Wx wrote:The globals could be right with jumping the surface low east, but there's arguments to be made that short range models handle the convection better. We won't know for sure until tomorrow which is crazy.

blows me away

This may be banter but........Tracking this storm for a week makes me have to listen to my dad. He makes fun of me for years for tracking the weather. He has ALWAYS said "look out the window the day of and you'll see what's coming down and then you'll know" I know you guys will argue against my point, but what is the point of all this modern technology and different model runs if they don't agree or keep changing every 6 hours?

NWS Mount Holly has expanded Blizzard Watch for most of state:
BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAYMORNING




WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH

WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


* LOCATIONS

CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.


* HAZARD TYPES

POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY
SNOW

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.


* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

10 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE.


* TIMING

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE ON SATURDAY.


* WINDS

NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.


* VISIBILITIES

ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.


* TEMPERATURES

IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.


* IMPACTS

THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS
COULD PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY BE DRY AND FLUFFY AT THE START

BUT WILL
BECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAY CLING TO
WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES. ROADS
WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING SNOW ACCUMULATION
DURING THE EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS



A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

TheAresian wrote:And if the low doesn't jump east?

We get blitzed.

syosnow94 wrote:This may be banter but........Tracking this storm for a week makes me have to listen to my dad.  He makes fun of me for years for tracking the weather.  He has ALWAYS said "look out the window the day of and you'll see what's coming down and then you'll know"  I know you guys will argue against my point, but what is the point of all this modern technology and different model runs if they don't agree or keep changing every 6 hours?

Jim, I tell people often that even with advanced technology and superior algorithms models still can't solve Mother Nature. It keeps this hobby humbling, that's for sure.

The 12z RPM - another mescoscale model - hammers us,

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z RPM - another mescoscale model - hammers us,

Maps?

And I know this sounds crazy that I'm posting the NAM, RPM, and RGEM may be right especially since I hate these models, but trusted sources really are not buying the globals at all. And think of this, maybe there is a reason Upton and Mt Holly remain bullish.

Does the RPM hammer ALL of us? Or just the city on south.

From Garrett Bastardi:

Mike and Bobby can attest to this, as here is the clear as day definition of convective feedback. At all levels, 850, 700, 500, the respective lows at each level are right over VA Beach. Now here is the amusing part. So is the surface low. If you take a look at the wind barbs at 60hrs, it is quite clear the center of circulation is right on or 5-10 miles off the coast. Its tucked, but the pressures try to react by falling rapidly where convection has gone off in the warm sector. This is the difference of 25-50miles. Which obviously is gigantic with this cutoff.

I agree Frank. There must be a reason Upton and Mount Holly are enhancing their forecasts not downgrading them. Let's hope the mesos have this one right.

I don't have the RPM I read it from earthlight

WPC put their forecast as low confidence. They are seeing the same issues.

CYCLONE SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM/GFS MAINLY APPEAR SLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE 500/700
HPA LEVELS, ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SPREAD -- A TRADITIONAL NAM BIAS AND OCCASIONAL GFS BIAS. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, THE TIME CENTERED AROUND THE SYSTEM'S EMERGENCE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST (ROUGHLY 72 HOURS OR SATURDAY EVENING) IS WHEN CERTAIN
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TEND TO SHOW A SLOW BIAS, INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z CANADIAN LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC SPREAD. THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF SHOWS SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S COMMA HEAD OVER THE
MID-SOUTH/MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY, WHICH ALSO COULD MEAN ITS SOLUTIONS ARE TOO SLOW.
HOWEVER, THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED QUICKER, PAST THE CENTER OF ITS OLD
ENSEMBLE MEAN. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO A COMPROMISE OF THE PAST COUPLE ECMWF RUNS AND
THE 18Z GFS PARALLEL RUN, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING.

How do the North and West areas do with this new information ?

Frank, Sroc, and all,

There is no doubt that this is going to be coming down to a now-cast situation where we go all in and either fold or win the pot. The best way that we will be able to see what is actually going on, even at this instant, is going to be to analyze the pressure falls. Wherever your falls are greatest is where your surface low is going to track. The problem is that I'm still trying to find a good source for this info ahaha All bets are off for me, but I'm trying my damnedest to sneak a peak at Mother Nature's hand for you guys haha

RAP at 500mb and Surface at Hr18(500 mb chart is mislabeled on wxbell).

I still think NYC is in the range for 12 to 16 " just my feelings

I've been a member for 2 years now but never post....I can't help myself right now!! News 12 NJ just said that my area in Western Monmouth NJ has been downgraded to 6-12 and a later start time!! I am losing my mind and driving my husband insane just trying to figure out what they're seeing!!

I'm not saying News 12 forecast is wrong, they may be right. But it is inconsistent with the NWS update at 10:37 this morning which issued a blizzard watch for 10-18" in western Monmouth.

All of NYC is now in a BW. Damn.

Hearing the 12z CMC is even worse than the GFS.

rb924119 wrote:Frank, Sroc, and all,

There is no doubt that this is going to be coming down to a now-cast situation where we go all in and either fold or win the pot. The best way that we will be able to see what is actually going on, even at this instant, is going to be to analyze the pressure falls. Wherever your falls are greatest is where your surface low is going to track. The problem is that I'm still trying to find a good source for this info ahaha All bets are off for me, but I'm trying my damnedest to sneak a peak at Mother Nature's hand for you guys haha

Will be fun live chatting on here while it's happening

billg315 wrote:I'm not saying News 12 forecast is wrong, they may be right. But it is inconsistent with the NWS update at 10:37 this morning which issued a blizzard watch for 10-18" in western Monmouth.

Thank you

SoulSingMG wrote:Hearing the 12z CMC is even worse than the GFS.

Confirmed: