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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:53 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I've made a decision. 

I'm going to the bar tonight.

Good decision....
lol so we won't b hear from u till tomorrow I guess.
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Post by Radz Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I've made a decision. 

I'm going to the bar tonight.

Thanks for all the effort and hard work Frank, and everyone else too- great job by all, you deserve a drink!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:Out of depression or celebration?

Anxiety. 

The 18z GFS gives NYC almost a foot. At 12z it was 4 inches. 

What the hell is going on? I'll try and make sense of it around 8pm for my 2nd call snow map.
frank ur do gr8 this is a huge model mess. There is something that is messing them up.big time. Or not but it's just amazing within 48 hrs and still don't know. Such consensues for days now all jumbled up.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:56 pm

Any chat tonight or just regular forum talk?
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Post by jimv45 Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:57 pm

Just saw Lee on 7 he seems very relaxed with the south trend 3-6 NYC

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Post by Grselig Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:58 pm

Is there really any hope for us northerners at this point. It's been a hard long week with a cold funeral today. Would love to have a little snow hope
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:00 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 26 35lyts9

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:01 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:Any chat tonight or just regular forum talk?

Regular forum until I find a new chat platform

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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:01 pm

is that the gfs?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:01 pm

@Grselig wrote:Is there really any hope for us northerners at this point.     It's been a hard long week with a cold funeral today.   Would love to have a little snow hope
imo this is one of the most amazing last minute model mayhem I've ever seem. Some Mets relaxed some confused again I say why goes due east. Like bernie it's just odd. Watch it follow Nam road and even with less precipitation still crushes entire area. It's been consistent. Lol
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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:02 pm

frank, when mets say less on coast? how many miles west is considered coast??
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:03 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Just saw Lee on 7 he seems very relaxed with the south trend 3-6 NYC
Somebody better give Lee a tweet and give him an update!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:03 pm

Ooz Sr models go b big telling imo. Lr too but I think we need start pay more attention to Sr tonight.
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Post by Snowfall Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:03 pm

Please I beg oh lord

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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:05 pm

This could also just be model noise at this point. Would like to see the 00z GFS be north as well before getting excited.
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Post by hyde345 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm

Hudson Valley is toast. Nam tried to pull me in again but I'm out. C-1 north of 84.
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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:09 pm

this is driving us nuts i just want a foot of snow come on dam it Embarassed pig pig

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:10 pm

Frank what caused the northward trend on the 18zGFS? Did the h5 low close later or less confluence?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:11 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank what caused the northward trend on the 18zGFS? Did the h5 low close later or less confluence?

I'll have more in writeup, but H5 low track further north and the surface low was less anxious to chase convection. It stays organized and closer to coast longer which allowed CCB to pivot.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:12 pm

How weird is this wsw 2 to 8 inches winds gust to 45mph no bluzzard watch but how is that even a wsw 2? Lol whatever this is just crazy
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:15 pm

LETS GIVE IT UP

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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:16 pm

‏@NEweatherHQ
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:16 pm

I'll reiterate what I said earlier, it seems the GFS has more desire to move toward the NAM then the NAM has to completely collapse. I think the answer may lie in between (although maybe closer to the 18z GFS).
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:LETS GIVE IT UP
I'm not. I'll be staying up for the 0zGFS run. Another 25-50 tick north and this board will explode!!! Basketball
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:Out of depression or celebration?

Anxiety. 

The 18z GFS gives NYC almost a foot. At 12z it was 4 inches. 

What the hell is going on? I'll try and make sense of it around 8pm for my 2nd call snow map.

Same here... 18z NAM shows 2 feet in Sussex, NJ. Hires shows 0, although its only through 60, seriously? Here its less dramatic, 18z reg shows about 2 feet, hires shows about a foot give or take...
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