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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 27 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:18 pm

@jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:19 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:LETS GIVE IT UP
I'm not. I'll be staying up for the 0zGFS run. Another 25-50 tick north and this board will explode!!! Basketball

it just seems like you can't give up on this one..a gut feeling for me
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 27 Screenshot_2016-01-21-16-51-16.thumb.png.9e0860423550313e8eb554b6d6d5a276
Frank will you have an in depth on what to expect timing,winds,tides, and final cal tonight
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:21 pm

@algae888 wrote:01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 27 Namconus_asnow_us_24

I've been at clients all day so I just logged onto my phone and I see my area is smack in the middle of 30 inches. this morning when I left I was pretty much expecting zero. I thought someone might be playing a joke and then realized it was the latest NAM, so someone is playing a joke.
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Post by mwilli5783 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:24 pm

this storm started out sunday/monday as a mecs(godzilla)then tues it changed to a secs and now here its thursday and some of the mets calling a 3-6 in storm..im still gonna be on here cause i still think were gonna get at least a 8-12......btw u guys name storms as godzilla(mecs)12-23 in,roidzilla(hecs)24-35 in and frankzilla(becs)36+..so hears a new one..hand of god 40+ and beyond

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:25 pm

@snow247 wrote:
@jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:27 pm

Does anyone know if their is mixing issues for northern coastal ocean county
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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:28 pm

i was watching lonnie quinn he has nyc long island and north 4 to 8 come on this depressing when will see higher amounts

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Post by Deweydave Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:28 pm

jake732 wrote:
‏@NEweatherHQ
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Jake i live in Danbury CT Western Part the cutoff will be so bad it could be snowing in the Westchester and the Sun could be out on Sat in CT lol

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:42 pm

WTH?? The GFGS takes a 15 -20 mile jog north - lets hope it is trend to the NAM - that would be the BEST EVRRR!! People would poop in their pants and cry foul at the met world up here.

I am not following tonight (just to check in here and there)and when I wake up I will see what is what - this has been the most frustrating and headache storm I have ever tracked hands down.


I think I may join Frank at Lou's in my town where good friends meet!!

drunken

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:44 pm

Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno
I will be doing a periscope at 6pm to discuss..yes the NAM and the new GFS. They both provide some interesting insight.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:46 pm

Thanks for all the analysis and hard work. I mean that sincerely.

I give you guys credit. This waffling and wish casting isn't good for me. If I wake up tonight I'll looka t the forum and see what's up, but no joke if we are at 3-6" or even 4-8" I'd rather have 0" I know you guys will kill me but this is BS. I'd rather remember getting less than 1" for the winter than a 6" storm that will go down as one of the most impressive in history. By the way 12-14" in Memphis TN tonight. Screw this.

Long, frustrating, pointless week!

...and GOD do I hope I'm embarrassed tomorrow morning about giving up on this "storm"

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:Any chat tonight or just regular forum talk?

Regular forum until I find a new chat platform

frank I can ask my husband if you want some ideas...after he is done scolding me for opening a map this morning that might have been a joke or might have infected the computer I was on... Rolling Eyes
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Post by Ronniek Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:54 pm

Unreal Lonnie Quinn just said 4-8 more likely 4 in the five boroughs winds around 25mph what a joke this storm is turning into by tomorrow it will be 1-3 inches

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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:55 pm

just bec lonnie quinn said that it doesnt mean hes correct
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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:57 pm

Hearing the GEFS is north and wetter.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:57 pm

@Ronniek wrote:Unreal Lonnie Quinn just said 4-8 more likely 4 in the five boroughs winds around 25mph what a joke this storm is turning into by tomorrow it will be 1-3 inches

Were his sleeves rolled up?

lol Jake i think he's the worst in the entire tri-state
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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:58 pm

hes out 2 lunch
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Post by Snow88 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:58 pm

GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:59 pm

Accuwx has blizzard for me sat night winds gust 50mph 6 inches. Sat daytime 4 inches 45 mph gusts. I agree that gfs may b catch to mam and a foot plus is in order. 30 plus umm doubt highly but omg if....
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:00 pm

@Snow88 wrote:GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)
maps what about bx and southern westchester?
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Post by Ferndue21 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm

Some of the weather guys on TV have upped their totals again!

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Post by Ronniek Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm

Lonnie Quinn's sleeves weren't rolled up but he losened his tie lol

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:06 pm

Here's my First Call ladies and gents (note that this was based on all data up to and including 12z runs today):

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 27 Jan22-10

I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.


Last edited by rb924119 on Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:11 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:10 pm

Wow zero snow for me basically. I hope ur wrong th no offense but respect to ur profession.
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