NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

+58
Ferndue21
Snow88
Ronniek
CPcantmeasuresnow
nyrfan31
Mathgod55
Aerojet514
Sunflowers138
Deweydave
chief7
Vinnydula
Snowfall
SNOW MAN
JDKWeather
Grselig
essexcountypete
docstox12
dsvinos
nutleyblizzard
mwilli5783
snowlover78
Radz
Quietace
jake732
Joe Snow
mako460
Bkdude
pdubz
oldtimer
rb924119
Artechmetals
sroc4
billg315
Abba701
Dunnzoo
Sanchize06
Math23x7
lglickman1
algae888
2004blackwrx
Biggin23
gigs68
weatherwatchermom
WeatherBob
BARBIEFLY
Dtone
RJB8525
amugs
skinsfan1177
frank 638
NjWeatherGuy
jimv45
hyde345
devsman
SoulSingMG
jmanley32
snow247
Frank_Wx
62 posters

Page 28 of 29 Previous  1 ... 15 ... 27, 28, 29  Next

Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:10 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here's my First Call ladies and gents:

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Jan22-10

I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.

OUCH!!! :-/
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:11 pm

bernie rayno is friekin king!!!
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by mwilli5783 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:11 pm

rb...as the late yogi berra said"if ain't over,till it's over"...

mwilli5783

Posts : 146
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 66
Location : hempstead n.y

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:12 pm

Bernie Rayno doing a live chat, just said he thinks this will continue to trend well north, starting with the Euro tonight.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:12 pm

@jake732 wrote:bernie rayno is friekin king!!!
what did he say I don't have that app.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:13 pm

Starting with euro? The gfs and cmc are first.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:13 pm

@snow247 wrote:Bernie Rayno doing a live chat, just said he thinks this will continue to trend well north, starting with the Euro tonight.
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Snow88 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)
maps what about bx and southern westchester?

1QPF
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:14 pm

What was his reasoning. Is he Wishcasting? What was his science behind it.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:15 pm

@Snow88 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GEFS more north and wetter. 1 inch of QPF for NYC with more on the south shore of NYC ( Queens, Brooklyn, SI.)
maps what about bx and southern westchester?

1QPF
I'll take it at this pt!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jake732 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:16 pm

he always thought i will eventually go north and now that nam,gfs are showing a bit he feels the euro will show tonight
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Grselig Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:17 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Here's my First Call ladies and gents:

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Jan22-10

I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.

OUCH!!! :-/



I'm angry. Course not at u. Really hope u r wrong. I bet u agree w me
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1328
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by crippo84 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:17 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What was his reasoning. Is he Wishcasting?  What was his science behind it.

95% of the tri-state area are wishcasting right now.
crippo84
crippo84

Posts : 299
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-11-07
Age : 37
Location : Manhattan

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Snow88 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:19 pm

18z GEFS Members. Look really nice.
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip18054.gif

Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:21 pm

@amugs wrote:WTH?? The GFGS takes a 15 -20 mile jog north - lets hope it is trend to the NAM - that would be the BEST EVRRR!! People would poop in their pants and cry foul at the met world up here.

I am not following tonight (just to check in here and there)and when I wake up I will see what is what - this has been the most frustrating and headache storm I have ever tracked hands down.


I think I may join Frank at Lou's in my town where good friends meet!!

drunken


I'm in mugsy, let's gooooooo!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4377
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Ferndue21 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:25 pm

Chatter all over. Models trending north!!!! Please tell me this is correct!!!!!

Ferndue21

Posts : 3
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-18

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by kaos00723 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:25 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@snow247 wrote:
@jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.

No offense to anyone here but most of you aren't good at actual forecasting either. Reading models and maps maybe, but forecasting, not really.

You need to take common sense and decades of weather knowledge into consideration when forecasting weather, not just what guidance tells you.

Common sense tells us this:


  • Storms usually exit on the same latitude that they entered.
  • Coastal storms don't normally head dead East Southeast all of a sudden out of nowhere and for no reason. Most Mets agree that this simply doesn't make sense.
  • There is still a good amount of room for the storm to move North, there isn't nearly enough nearby blocking it from doing so.
  • The ocean waters are very, very warm still which will drop the pressure of this storm much more than what the models suggest and most likely bomb it out.


Of course none of this could happen and the Euro has been correct all along. That's why Meteorologists like Bernie Sanders make the big bucks and stick to their original forecast from the start without freaking out about every little shift in the models. Accuweather has been consistent on this storm from the start and will make their final determinations by tomorrow evening which is what everyone else should be doing for a storm like this. You really have no idea what's going to happen until it happens like so many times before. It's fun to see what the models are doing and trying to determine what this thing is going to do but in the end common sense tells us that the models are probably having some minor difficulties with the track of this storm once it hits the warm Atlantic waters and anything can happen come Saturday morning. Either way it's best to prepare for snow and/or power outages regardless of what's going to happen. cat

kaos00723

Posts : 13
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-18
Age : 45
Location : Hewitt, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:31 pm

@kaos00723 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@snow247 wrote:
@jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.

No offense to anyone here but most of you aren't good at actual forecasting either. Reading models and maps maybe, but forecasting, not really.

You need to take common sense and decades of weather knowledge into consideration when forecasting weather, not just what guidance tells you.

Common sense tells us this:


  • Storms usually exit on the same latitude that they entered.
  • Coastal storms don't normally head dead East Southeast all of a sudden out of nowhere and for no reason. Most Mets agree that this simply doesn't make sense.
  • There is still a good amount of room for the storm to move North, there isn't nearly enough nearby blocking it from doing so.
  • The ocean waters are very, very warm still which will drop the pressure of this storm much more than what the models suggest and most likely bomb it out.


Of course none of this could happen and the Euro has been correct all along. That's why Meteorologists like Bernie Sanders make the big bucks and stick to their original forecast from the start without freaking out about every little shift in the models. Accuweather has been consistent on this storm from the start and will make their final determinations by tomorrow evening which is what everyone else should be doing for a storm like this. You really have no idea what's going to happen until it happens like so many times before. It's fun to see what the models are doing and trying to determine what this thing is going to do but in the end common sense tells us that the models are probably having some minor difficulties with the track of this storm once it hits the warm Atlantic waters and anything can happen come Saturday morning. Either way it's best to prepare for snow and/or power outages regardless of what's going to happen. cat

Welcome to the party Kaos. I must say for a first post its a bit on the brazen side, although you do make some valid points. Not everyone in this forum is changing a forecast with individual runs. There are all levels of experience in here from completely green to actual meterologists. Everyone is entitled to there opinion as long as its respectful. So ease up a touch. Some of your points sound verbatim like Bernie R. ie: number 1. Just saying.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6888
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:33 pm

i was watching 3 meteorologist and the one i trust is nick gregory because he nailed the blizzard of 96 and 03 and 09
nick gregory has 7 to 12 for nyc and parts of long island and 4 to 7 north and east
lonnie quinn has 4 to 7 for nyc long island and parts of westchester and 2 to4 for north and east
news 12 i dont know why 3 to 6 for everyone

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2334
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by mancave25 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:34 pm

Didn't the 96 storm show 3-6 in. The day before it came in and we all know what happened after that

mancave25

Posts : 112
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-02-05

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:36 pm

I believe boxing day was written off by this time too and look what happened.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:38 pm

@frank 638 wrote:i was watching 3 meteorologist and the one i trust is nick gregory because he nailed the blizzard of 96 and 03 and 09
nick gregory has 7 to 12 for nyc and parts of long island and 4 to 7 north and east
lonnie quinn has 4 to 7 for nyc long island and parts of westchester and 2 to4 for north and east
news 12 i dont know why 3 to 6 for everyone
no one agrees 36 hrs b4 start wow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Dtone Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:43 pm

@frank 638 wrote:i was watching 3 meteorologist and the one i trust is nick gregory because he nailed the blizzard of 96 and 03 and 09
nick gregory has 7 to 12 for nyc and parts of long island and 4 to 7 north and east
lonnie quinn has 4 to 7 for nyc long island and parts of westchester and 2 to4 for north and east
news 12 i dont know why 3 to 6 for everyone

News 12 is almost a non factor imo. Only slightly better than NY1.

The storm exiting the coast and heading due east to SSE seems so bizzare. What conditions would cause that, I've been looking for a logical explanation.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:45 pm

we all remember the day after christmas storm of 2010 that went from snow to nothing to a blizzard

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2334
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:49 pm

frank do mind if i join u for drinks i think we all need drinks this storm is giving us a headache holy crap

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2334
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 28 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 28 of 29 Previous  1 ... 15 ... 27, 28, 29  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum