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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:39 pm

Frank: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Wx10
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:40 pm

@snow247 wrote:01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 SREFNE24Precip21087
That purple spot is right on me lol
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:41 pm

Come on NAM, throw us weenies a bone.
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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:41 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Frank: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Wx10

Wow, didn't think they would be that bullish. Nice.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:45 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:frank do you think we will have a blizzard watch or winter storm watch by tom afternoon in our area

I mentioned this earlier: A friend of mine with a contact at UPTON said they are planning on (I'm assuming if things continue as-is guidance wise or trend better) releasing a Blizzard Watch for the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and in turn, warnings around 18:00 on Friday.

Just NYC metro? Or all upton area nearer the coast?
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:frank what do you think the chances of this thing giving us valley peeps more snow?

It is very hard to say at this point. The gradient is incredibly tight. I personally think the cut-off is too dramatic. There is a big relative humidity field with this storm. The air should be saturated enough to get snow bands into northern areas. We have to see how far north the frontogenesis gets.

By the way - I will have the specifics around wind and coastal flooding tomorrow.

thanks frank...starting to get nervous about those aspects of the storm...tv saying 60+ wind gusts...for prolonged period of time..makes me a little jittery..
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:frank do you think we will have a blizzard watch or winter storm watch by tom afternoon in our area

I mentioned this earlier: A friend of mine with a contact at UPTON said they are planning on (I'm assuming if things continue as-is guidance wise or trend better) releasing a Blizzard Watch for the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and in turn, warnings around 18:00 on Friday.

Just NYC metro? Or all upton area nearer the coast?

I didn't get specific counties. I'd assume Southern Westchester would be included as it's close enough to the required sustained winds.
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:47 pm

Thank you Soul

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:47 pm

My accuwx local has 52mph gusts sat. wow, and I am about 10-15 miles from the coast but pretty near the hudson which does have higher winds than over land.
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:59 pm

00z NAM closed off at hour 15 over NE Kansas.
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:59 pm

Slightly more negatively tilted at 22. More noticeable height rises this run so far.


Last edited by snow247 on Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:59 pm

One thing that concerns me is people here on coast are focusing the snow but hearing tidal flooding May rank in top 5 ever. Not good sign.
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:00 pm

Here's accuweather map 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 2cGLQkJ
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Post by gigs68 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:00 pm

Great job by Lee on Facebook explaining what could go wrong with storm
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Post by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:00 pm

NWS discussion states 20 foot waves....wow, this is a SNOWICANE

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Post by 2004blackwrx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:02 pm

Bed time for me Trend north and cheer me up for the morning. The trend Is my friend.

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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:03 pm

Opens up again at hour 21.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:04 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:Bed time for me Trend north and cheer me up for the morning. The trend Is my friend.


good night do not forget..pj's inside out and spoons under your pillow!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:05 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:Here's accuweather map 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 4 2cGLQkJ

Thanks. 

Also, I can't take NAM seriously. Don't care what it shows.

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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:05 pm

Trough trying to go negative earlier.

More moisture so far too. Classic comma head at hour 27.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:13 pm

Not taking precip into consideration, the NAM is further north with the H5 low which allows heights to rise more ahead of the trough.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:14 pm

Nam has a ton of moisture with it and closed over Northern Bama - come on baby

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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:14 pm

FWIW the precip shield is considerably further west this run.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:17 pm

God dam Vort in teh PAC - need top watch this closely

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:18 pm

H5 is considerably NW of last run

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