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01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

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01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

Post by mwilli5783 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:27 pm

that info came from my facebook page(epawa)

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:28 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Mike, you are an asset to this board and I have a slight man crush on you.
lol!

LOL, he really is
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank I will ask your opinion on this only once, I have seen the wind maps and they have close to 50kt gusts into my area, do you forsee them expanding the blizzard watch into southern westchester and maybe even southern ct if it trends north a bit or even stays status quo? NWS wsw meets blizzard criteria thats why i do not understand.

If the track of the storm trends north - so will the blizzard watches. Not for CT but for those just north of NYC yes.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:30 pm

So yes my area in other words (was ask about CT for my friend) ok thx, do you think they have taken into consideration the trend north on the advisories map or do u think they are waiting for the 00z?
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:30 pm

Those numbers do show what kind of an impressive storm it is though. 5 complete whiffs and still averaging just under 9 inches. Either that or it shows why it took me 3 tries to pass statistics with a "C".

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:31 pm

Mike, can you do the same analysis for the 21z SREFS??

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:31 pm

The NAM should be in shortly correct? I know you hate it Frank but lets hope it stays north with those nutty totals ( I know we won't see that much but to show that much means at least a foot I would guess)
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:32 pm

@TheAresian wrote:Those numbers do show what kind of an impressive storm it is though. 5 complete whiffs and still averaging just under 9 inches. Either that or it shows why it took me 3 tries to pass statistics with a "C".

Not to be mean, but this struck me as hilarious ahahaha too funny lmfao

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:32 pm

MIKE THE LATEST SREFS ARE MADONNE WORTHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 2 56a1865e58a95_Screenshot2016-01-2120.30.54.thumb.png.d670387db881c0e0fbf92a66f3705ddb

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:37 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:MIKE THE LATEST SREFS ARE MADONNE WORTHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 2 56a1865e58a95_Screenshot2016-01-2120.30.54.thumb.png.d670387db881c0e0fbf92a66f3705ddb

Their dynamical core is also like 75% the same as the NAM, just we have that established ahaha Nonetheless, I agree lmao Just a slight increase Shocked Shocked

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:42 pm

For what its worth, the 18z GFS projection of where the precipitation shield would be, (how big, areas of greatest intensity, how far north, etc) around 7-8 p.m. is almost exactly what the current radar shows.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:42 pm

Day in the life of the SREFS today.

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 2 12493802_1050993131598778_4899670729478307525_o

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Post by dsvinos Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:42 pm

@mwilli5783 wrote:just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

Just read the EPAWA's new write-up and it's fantastic! I hope they're right cheers cheers cheers

http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:43 pm

So if its as accurate for the next 24 hours as the first 6 we're in good shape Smile
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Post by snowlover 12345 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:44 pm

When does the new NAM come out?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:45 pm

The 00z NAM has started

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Post by Mac003 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:45 pm

Thanks to all, especially Frank, for providing honest analysts and information on a nearly continuous basis so people like me can follow and understand the dynamics that are in play. Hoping the next runs all move North

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:46 pm

@dsvinos wrote:
@mwilli5783 wrote:just read something for the epawa saying that the storm will shift north and west they read the nam and where areas getting 6-12 will change to 12-18 areas 3-6 will now get a 4-8 etc etc,this was there 8pm reading..might wanna check them out....

Just read the EPAWA's new write-up and it's fantastic!  I hope they're right cheers cheers cheers

http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Our maps are almost alike. They are a bit more NW than me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:47 pm

@Mac003 wrote:Thanks to all, especially Frank, for providing honest analysts and information on a nearly continuous basis so people like me can follow and understand the dynamics that are in play. Hoping the next runs all move North

No problem Mac. Thanks for being here.

And a sincere thank you to all the new members who have joined over the last 2 weeks. This place is awesome.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z NAM has started

Why am I torturing myself?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:51 pm

You know what's cool about the 00z NAM run so far? You can see the upper energy over Florida coming out of the Gulf. This system is going to be fueled like crazy.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:51 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z NAM has started

Why am I torturing myself?

You will go to bed a happy man tonight.

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Post by snowlover78 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:51 pm

Thanks Frank I am under your predicted area of 12-18".

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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:52 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 2 IMG_4933.gif.f0595b5d76fe9cb0cf8ca4a2a073e4fb
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:53 pm

@snowlover78 wrote:Thanks Frank I am under your predicted area of 12-18".

Let the force be with you.

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