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01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:00 am

06z NAVGEM is a huge hit for tri-state...
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:09 am

NWS Blizzard Warning 6"-10" Actually I thought Blizzard would be over 1'

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:12 am

@algae888 wrote:nws has the same maps as yesterday afternoon... actually they upped totals in my area a bit Very Happy
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 StormTotalSnowFcst
currently 22* at the park nice fresh cold air for this storm to work with

Yep al they pushed totals up saw the Euro came north, and 06z NAM welll.....I have no words lol. warning for us on the cusp of blizzard warning (though the warning for manhattan is for same amount of snow just winds gust to 55 instead of 30), wouldnt be surprised to see it upgraded with a slight tick north at 12z.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:18 am

06z gfs did come north, it was near nothing at 00z now it has 6-8 nyc, let this trend north about 25-50 miles more north at 12z and its a lock i think woooo
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:19 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:06z NAVGEM is a huge hit for tri-state...

yes around a foot.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:32 am

I don't know if models mean much at this point
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:52 am

I woke up to a blizzard warning and all the forecasts back up to over a foot for my area as well as word the Euro and GFS are back on board. I'll say this: the NAM and short range type models have been very consistent with this while Euro and GFS are jumping around seeming confused. Both Euro and GFS keep hinting they want to come toward the NAM. We're now only 18 hours out. I've got to side with consistency and most common trends at this point.
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:54 am

@snow247 wrote:GFS and Euro still look terrible for half of the board while the NAM crushes all of us.

That trend will apparently not break

It's basically now casting already
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:58 am

I'm to the point where I am just going all in on my area getting 10-14, NYC getting 8-12, north and northwest of NYC 4-8" and south Jersey (interior near Philly where they don't get mixing) 12-24". Just above the 4-8" area a sharp cutoff of 1-4". If it doesn't happen this way I'll just deal with it.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:01 am

@billg315 wrote:I'm to the point where I am just going all in on my area getting 10-14, NYC getting 8-12, north and northwest of NYC 4-8" and south Jersey (interior near Philly where they don't get mixing) 12-24". Just above the 4-8" area a sharp cutoff of 1-4". If it doesn't happen this way I'll just deal with it.

Sounds like a plan, but I also think its quite possible amounts go up for arears around nyc and south. But not much further than southern westchester northern NY and now maybe southern CT.
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:11 am

Parts of southern Illinois and Ohio already expecting to bust high on snow totals due to a more expansive northern fringe.
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Post by Biggin23 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:14 am

If I don't mix I'm well over a foot, if I do mix probably around 8 inches. Going to be close....I'm 20 miles east of Trenton and about 15 from the shore as a crow flys

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:16 am

Biggin I think you may see some sleet mix in at times but still stay mostly snow so it doesn't dramatically lower your total. I think east of you mixing has an affect on totals though.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:17 am

WHERE IS FRANK?

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:18 am

I'm watching radar at this point. Interested to see how far into Ohio/Indiana the northern edge gets. Looks like storm is about 4-5 hours from starting in DC.
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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:18 am

@billg315 wrote:Biggin I think you may see some sleet mix in at times but still stay mostly snow so it doesn't dramatically lower your total. I think east of you mixing has an affect on totals though.
Where she is absolutely not. Myself, yes, could happen, hence when I made my snow map I had myself in 6-10. Just part of life on the shore

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:20 am

Ok here is my 2nd call snow map.  I really like what I see, not only in the trends in the models, but also current observations.  
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 <a href=01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 Second10" />


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:44 am; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:21 am

Current H5
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 500mb10

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Post by Biggin23 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:22 am

@Quietace wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Biggin I think you may see some sleet mix in at times but still stay mostly snow so it doesn't dramatically lower your total. I think east of you mixing has an affect on totals though.
Where she is absolutely not. Myself, yes, could happen, hence when I made my snow map I had myself in 6-10. Just part of life on the shore

Either way, it is going to be awesome. If I get a foot of snow, it will be the most I have ever seen at one time. Moved here 1.5 years ago...bad thing is, I moved from just outside DC, LOL. Going to be fun this weekend!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:24 am

@sroc4 wrote:Ok here is my 2nd call snow map.  I may be the most bullish here but I really like what I see, not only in the trends in the models, but also current observations.  
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 <a href=01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 Second10" />
sroc4 is thst a mean joke leaving southern westchester and staten island blank lol. Is thst in the 8 to 14 I presume? Lol awesome map


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:26 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:25 am

Sroc, if I had map drawing skills mine would look a lot like yours. I think you are on target (as much as we can be at this point).
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Post by Dtone Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:26 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Ok here is my 2nd call snow map.  I may be the most bullish here but I really like what I see, not only in the trends in the models, but also current observations.  
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 <a href=01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 Second10" />
sroc4 is thst a mean joke leaving southern westchester blank lol. Is thst in the 8 to 14 I presume? Lol

lol Sunny skies in Staten Island, Manhattan, Bx, Westchester

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:29 am

@Quietace wrote:Current H5
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 500mb10

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 21 500mb10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:31 am

Looks like a pretty good ridge out west. Am I looking at that correctly?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:34 am

@billg315 wrote:Looks like a pretty good ridge out west. Am I looking at that correctly?

Absolutely correct. Looks great

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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