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01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

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01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:32 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Dtone wrote:NWS updated. 10" - 18" for NYC metro

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL
 PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
 DAMAGING WINDS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO
 VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
 AND INTO THE EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S.


* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
 STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
 TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
 POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

Awe come on I am so close to that its not even funny lol
I believe we talked about this last year. It is all a formality objection.

Yes we did sorry, and I read NWS reasoning thinking winds wont be as strong, but have me at 35mph, but ur right whatever, it just sounds cool lol
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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Dtone wrote:NWS updated. 10" - 18" for NYC metro

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL
 PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
 DAMAGING WINDS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO
 VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
 AND INTO THE EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S.


* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
 STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
 TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
 POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

Awe come on I am so close to that its not even funny lol
I believe we talked about this last year. It is all a formality objection.

Yes we did sorry, and I read NWS reasoning thinking winds wont be as strong, but have me at 35mph, but ur right whatever, it just sounds cool lol
Its clear you'll see blizzard conditions, but you know, the NWS has rules, and not everyone in your county might so they cant issue it.

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Post by Sharon117 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:36 pm

I am truly in awe of this storm!
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Post by snowlover 12345 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:38 pm

Whose got the new GFS that is coming out right now?

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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:38 pm

GFS looking north!
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:40 pm

30+ MILES NORTH THIS RUN.
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Post by snowlover 12345 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:40 pm

Hearing its looking like the NAM just not so crazy high in QPF

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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:41 pm

HI.

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 W5yt6P3
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:43 pm

Time for Upton to increase amounts for northern areas.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:44 pm

Well, the GFS finally caved almost completely to the NAM.
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Post by Biggin23 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:48 pm

Taking a while for the snow to get across the NJ state line, LOL

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:50 pm

GFS PUTS Orange County solidly in 12-16 area. I'd be a happy man. Not gonna get greedy.
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:50 pm

Thanks for the maps snow, holding it down lol
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Post by meeka312 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:54 pm

When is Frank's new snow map coming?

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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:54 pm

Wow. Jman u said this earlier but u r correct. A few days ago I was expecting a dusting. Now we are flirting with feet
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:54 pm

What we have seen today re. models is ASTOUNDING and rivals Boxing Day. Blown away. Wouldn't be surprised if NYC gets a 20" storm
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:59 pm

Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 Slide113

Looks decent to me lol

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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:01 pm

I think we can see 20 inches because the storm is getting stronger lots of moisture I can't wait thank god we are getting this storm I am so excited

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Post by emokid51783 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:01 pm

Where is the H5 going to form?!?!?! It's like Christmas Morning!!!!1111!!11

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:02 pm

@Grselig wrote:Wow.    Jman u said this earlier but u r correct.   A few days ago I was expecting a dusting.   Now we are flirting with feet
I always had a good feeling and wow at gfs on cusp of 15 to 20 wow wow.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:02 pm

The Weather Channel has me 12:18 inches of snow

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:02 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 Slide113

Looks decent to me lol
assuming u mean that's a very good spot


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:03 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 Slide113

Looks decent to me lol


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:03 pm

Still just WSWatch IN Orange County and that's for up to 6 inches max. NWS Is not convinced of northern trend yet cutoff is still very sharp so I can't say I blame them.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:04 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here's the current 500 hPa setup and my thoughts as to where the center (closed low) will form based on the wind field in the trough (in red).....

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 40 Slide113

Looks decent to me lol

Also looks like the s/w is coming onto the NW shore...top left corner

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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