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Roidzilla Storm Mode - January 23, 2016 Updated Final Call

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Post by petep1000 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:11 am

Oh NOOOOO, the NAM....... party
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Post by MikeFr Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:13 am

Probably 2-3 year lurker here, did visit the ch. 7 pages a bit too. Winter weather fan only. Appreciate the insight and passion found here regularly. I hope by this time tomorrow we're all in the same mood and digging out.

But because I remember last year, and I see the same trace of snow on cars as I did then.. What's the probability of this not matching the totals that everyone has come to accept?
Have we gotten so close to the event that it would be highly unlikely for it not to verify this way?

Is the "heavy" period we're expecting tomorrow something that could be shorter in duration than projected now, or would something else be the reason? I can't imagine it just being light snow, seeing how intense everything is south of us.
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Post by petep1000 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:14 am

All right CP. at least I know where I stand. I'll just be a "senior" member.....
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:15 am

Roidzilla Storm Mode - January 23, 2016 Updated Final Call  - Page 4 Mcd0057

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:16 am

FWIW 00z GFS Ensembles:

Roidzilla Storm Mode - January 23, 2016 Updated Final Call  - Page 4 Screen10

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Post by petep1000 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:17 am

Roidzilla Storm Mode - January 23, 2016 Updated Final Call  - Page 4 850mbtdconus


WOW
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:18 am

@MikeFr wrote:Probably 2-3 year lurker here, did visit the ch. 7 pages a bit too. Winter weather fan only. Appreciate the insight and passion found here regularly. I hope by this time tomorrow we're all in the same mood and digging out.

But because I remember last year, and I see the same trace of snow on cars as I did then.. What's the probability of this not matching the totals that everyone has come to accept?
Have we gotten so close to the event that it would be highly unlikely for it not to verify this way?

Is the "heavy" period we're expecting tomorrow something that could be shorter in duration than projected now, or would something else be the reason? I can't imagine it just being light snow, seeing how intense everything is south of us.

Mike to answer that our experts ( and I'm not one of them) really need to know where you live. If you're from Albany things don't look good, if you live in CNJ you could be in the sweet spot.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:19 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:18 am

@rb924119 wrote:FWIW 00z GFS Ensembles:

Roidzilla Storm Mode - January 23, 2016 Updated Final Call  - Page 4 Screen10

Wowwwww
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Post by petep1000 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:21 am

Roidzilla Storm Mode - January 23, 2016 Updated Final Call  - Page 4 Acc10_1snowconus

Roidzilla Storm Mode - January 23, 2016 Updated Final Call  - Page 4 Acc10_1snowne

GFS vs NAM
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Post by MikeFr Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:22 am

Sorry, I thought my profile said where I lived. Astoria, Queens.

I was always expecting 6" from this, hoping for more. So my question was about the 12-18" expectations for NYC now.
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Post by nujerzeedevil Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:22 am

@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@nujerzeedevil wrote:A solid 3" in Bayville Ocean County alreadly. Now dealing with mixed precip though....

Telling you this right now, for those of us in SNOW MAN, Doc, and CP country (and myself), the old-timers used to say when it rains on the coast, you're gonna get it good. If they're mixing already, this may be coming more north than current guidance suggests. Time will ultimately tell, but that's a good sign for us well north and west.
That is odd, literally the surface, 925mb and up are all frigid. Whats your temp? I am at 27.
Current temp is 28 and still a mix precip. Makes no sense...
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Post by petep1000 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:27 am

We need Frank to make a new depiction of a "Roidzilla" to replace his Godzilla....
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:27 am

@MikeFr wrote:Sorry, I thought my profile said where I lived. Astoria, Queens.

I was always expecting 6" from this, hoping for more. So my question was about the 12-18" expectations for NYC now.

Most of the SR and LR models seem to be pretty confident NYC sees at least 12 and the consensus now is around 16-18.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:28 am

70 in April CP I'm pulling for you!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:30 am

@oldtimer wrote:70 in April   CP  I'm pulling for you!!

Thanks oldtimer, same here for you. Lets not have any mixing issues there like a couple of places along the jersey shore are having.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:31 am

@nujerzeedevil wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@nujerzeedevil wrote:A solid 3" in Bayville Ocean County alreadly. Now dealing with mixed precip though....

Telling you this right now, for those of us in SNOW MAN, Doc, and CP country (and myself), the old-timers used to say when it rains on the coast, you're gonna get it good. If they're mixing already, this may be coming more north than current guidance suggests. Time will ultimately tell, but that's a good sign for us well north and west.
That is odd, literally the surface, 925mb and up are all frigid. Whats your temp? I am at 27.
Current temp is 28 and still a mix precip. Makes no sense...

YOU'RE MIXING???? WITH WHAT??

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:32 am

Ukie FTW 40-45 mm for nyc equa qpf of l 1.75 to 2.1" woohooo

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:32 am

Good night see ya'll in the morning for sime.more fun and pics

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Post by mwilli5783 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:33 am

petep...im 61...most people think im 49....lol

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Post by petep1000 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:35 am

OK, so I'm the 4th oldest. Congrats oldtimer, Big 70. It's only a number, that's the way I've looked at it. Goodnight Amugs, I'll be hitting bed too. Up early to drool over the radar and nowcasting...
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:40 am

whos here with me hahaha
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:40 am

@jmanley32 wrote:whos here with me hahaha

I am Jman, at least for the time being ahaha

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Post by oldtimer Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:43 am

Thanks Petep These kids are terrific They make me feel younger Great group here

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Post by mwilli5783 Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:49 am

turning in at 1am....im gonna be on the board about 7:30am just to see updates and look out the window(target wont b seeing me saturday)just gonna shovel and watch ted 2,straight outta compton and hotel trann(2)i expect by then we'll be in the 14+mode and still snowing...night

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:50 am

I am always here, I think everyone knows that by now lol
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