New York City Snowfall Average and Storms

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:CP, I commend you in your efforts.  Without wackos like you ( I mean that in a very respectful way ), idiots would rule the world and f all the data up.  Keep up the good work and try and keep them in check!  

Bob, I know exactly how you mean it.

When I told my wife about a year ago that I finally got NOAA to change the incorrect 30 year snowfall averages for Central Park, she looked at me and said, "why did you hide this weather fetish thing from me before we got married, if I'd known I may have said no".

I'm pretty sure she was kidding, but not positive.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:While watching TWC this weekend which is something I only do in a storms aftermath, I mean why watch them for forecasts when you have this forum, I noticed they still posted the NYC 30 year snowfall averages at Central Park incorrectly. Since it appears everyone is exhausted and the site has slowed for a couple of days I thought I would post a short story about those averages. "Wow", say the readers, "sounds fascinating CP".

The 30 year snowfall average in NYC from January 1981- December 2010 is actually 25.9 inches. Some places post it as 25.1 or 25.3 (notably TWC) but NOAA changed that average in 2014 when someone (me) pointed out their math was incorrect. No applause just send donations. After exchanging many emails, they did finally acknowledge their mistake and posted the correct 30 year average on their site, for some reason as 25.8 even though the simple addition and division as I painstakingly pointed out to them is 25.9, but at least they attempted to correct it and they came as darn close as I suppose most government agencies can.

Once the 1980's, which is the lowest snowfall decade ever in NYC HISTORY, are taken out of the equation and the new 30 year average is calculated in January 2021 the new 30 year average will very likely be above 30 inches, possibly by several inches. Currently if Central Park had no more snow from now through December 2020 or almost 5 years the next 30 year average would be 26.2 inches. God forbid that happens and I just put a hex on the next 5 years.

The average yearly snowfall in NYC since records have been kept in 1869 is 28.8 inches. That's a running total through last month, this month will increase the historical average up to 28.9 inches. At some point when there is another down period I will post the e-mails of the back and forth I had with NOAA to show them their average was incorrect. It's kind of amusing it took several e-mails. We weren't talking about splitting the atom we were discussing adding and dividing, simple stuff guys.

Anyway in the end I give them credit for making the change, just like I give them credit for changing last years totals after the very successful e-mail campaign waged by this Forum. I also want people to realize that this change to having the Conservancy measure snow this year instead of the incompetents at the Central Park Zoo was all because of our e-mail campaign last year. They acknowledged finally that something had to be done about the constant under counts at Central Park and they did something. Whether it's a change for the better that remains to be seen. I'd give the Conservancy an A for the first 19 hours of the storm and an F for everything after 7 pm when they dropped the ball and blew what should have been a record breaking snowfall.

Maybe in the future with another group effort we can have them change the great under counts of the past, Boxing Day, The Blizzard of 96, the 1978 blizzard and on and on and on.

More to come as time allows, I'm sure most of you will sleep restlessly in anticipation.

CP

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The links below were provided by the famous Uncle W, my weather stat idol -

These are fascinating accounts about the blizzard of 1888. For those that don't know this was a 34-40 inch storm that ravaged NYC, with general 40-60 inch snow amounts in the HV and parts of CT, and ultimately was recorded as 21 inches in Central Park.

The stories, pictures and observations in surrounding areas prove the zookeeper is immortal and was even measuring back then. All kidding aside how this has never been adjusted in all these years is a travesty. It should be the #1 storm in NYC history. This was truly a BECS, a Frankenzilla on steroids.

Emboldened by recent successes, getting the 30 year average snowfall corrected in Central Park, getting three of last years snow totals adjusted upward after ridiculous under measuring, and ultimately getting rid of the zookeeper himself, it is time to take on the great white whale. My next quest with NJ forum help is to get that storms totals adjusted once and for all. Ryan (Ace) gave me the pathway, Uncle W supplied the ammunition, and the NJ Strong forum will be the army. Stealing from the slogan in the battle for the great northwest for latitude 54 40 or fight. The battle for the Blizzard of 1888 shall be 34 to 40 inches or fight.

I will try to keep the loss of life to a minimum.

The easiest way to read the below links is to expand the PDF files they give access to 100%.

1888 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1888-03-13/ed-1/seq-1/

from the NY Sun...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1888-03-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1888-03-13/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1888-03-13/ed-1/seq-3/

1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://fultonhistory.com/Newspapers%207/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201888%20Grayscale/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201888%20Grayscale%20-%200455.pdf

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Quietace wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:While watching TWC this weekend which is something I only do in a storms aftermath, I mean why watch them for forecasts when you have this forum, I noticed they still posted the NYC 30 year snowfall averages at Central Park incorrectly. Since it appears everyone is exhausted and the site has slowed for a couple of days I thought I would post a short story about those averages. "Wow", say the readers, "sounds fascinating CP".

The 30 year snowfall average in NYC from January 1981- December 2010 is actually 25.9 inches. Some places post it as 25.1 or 25.3 (notably TWC) but NOAA changed that average in 2014 when someone (me) pointed out their math was incorrect. No applause just send donations. After exchanging many emails, they did finally acknowledge their mistake and posted the correct 30 year average on their site, for some reason as 25.8 even though the simple addition and division as I painstakingly pointed out to them is 25.9, but at least they attempted to correct it and they came as darn close as I suppose most government agencies can.

Once the 1980's, which is the lowest snowfall decade ever in NYC HISTORY, are taken out of the equation and the new 30 year average is calculated in January 2021 the new 30 year average will very likely be above 30 inches, possibly by several inches. Currently if Central Park had no more snow from now through December 2020 or almost 5 years the next 30 year average would be 26.2 inches. God forbid that happens and I just put a hex on the next 5 years.

The average yearly snowfall in NYC since records have been kept in 1869 is 28.8 inches. That's a running total through last month, this month will increase the historical average up to 28.9 inches. At some point when there is another down period I will post the e-mails of the back and forth I had with NOAA to show them their average was incorrect. It's kind of amusing it took several e-mails. We weren't talking about splitting the atom we were discussing adding and dividing, simple stuff guys.

Anyway in the end I give them credit for making the change, just like I give them credit for changing last years totals after the very successful e-mail campaign waged by this Forum. I also want people to realize that this change to having the Conservancy measure snow this year instead of the incompetents at the Central Park Zoo was all because of our e-mail campaign last year. They acknowledged finally that something had to be done about the constant under counts at Central Park and they did something. Whether it's a change for the better that remains to be seen. I'd give the Conservancy an A for the first 19 hours of the storm and an F for everything after 7 pm when they dropped the ball and blew what should have been a record breaking snowfall.

Maybe in the future with another group effort we can have them change the great under counts of the past, Boxing Day, The Blizzard of 96, the 1978 blizzard and on and on and on.

More to come as time allows, I'm sure most of you will sleep restlessly in anticipation.

CP

Their is a way for this to be done. If enough people contact them about these issues, It will make them reanalyze a system. Through this they can manipulate past recordings through the  process, similar to how the NHC does post season analysis and can upgrade(or downgrade name/non-named storms). I would start by contacting the OPL or the MIC at Upton. Something should be done, and most meteorologists in the field are aware of the issue, and just brush it off as a "normal process they are used to" with "nothing can be done about it due to staff shortages."

This is very intriguing Ryan. The question then becomes do we start off slow or go right for the jugular and have the blizzard of 1888 changed to 30 or 40 whatever inches it actually was once and for all. I did have a chat today on another forum with uncle W who also believes it was greatly under measured. When I get home tonight I will post some of the articles he posted for me concerning the storm. It's comical if not pathetic that this storm is recorded as 21 inches in Central Park. It makes the zookeeper measurements of the past look precision like.