NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 10.0

Page 1 of 28 1, 2, 3 ... 14 ... 28  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:19 pm

Larry Cosgrove

Super active storm track along the eastern seaboard coupled with frequent Arctic intrusions for nearly all of February and the first half of March.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:14 pm

Long Range Thread 10.0 Ecmwf10f240.thumb.gif.931d3bd5367b98aa4979c5a4f001eccb

This is showing not a splitting but a total dislodging of the PV - where this set ups is going to be key for the month of Feb into March. My idea is just West of Hudson Bay and a tad North -= that would be ideal BUT fACT BEING IT IS BEING DISLODGED WHICH IS GREAT NEWS.

fROM OUR STRAT EXPERT ISOTHERM:
Displacement SSW looking more and more likely at this point. I think the coupling process will be fairly rapid with this event. The lower stratosphere is very perturbed as well, and should initiate the -AO next week.Right now, I like the direction the Euro's headed.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:32 pm

0z GFS has the superbowl storm. It's a miller b like the euro but further north. NYC gets a few inches but SNE gets more. It really gets going in SNE. Long way to go. 500 looks great.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:38 pm

0z gfs runs for my storms

5th very close

Long Range Thread 10.0 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23

7th into the 8th - so close - LI gets a good Miller B
Long Range Thread 10.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f189

Long Range Thread 10.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f192

Long Range Thread 10.0 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31

Long Range Thread 10.0 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32




_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:41 pm

WOW LOOK AT THE ENERGY DIGGING WAY SOUTH ON THE GFS AT 231 AND 234

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:43 pm

THIS LOOKS LIKE A BOMB IS READY TO GO OFF AFTER THIS HR 240 MADONNE

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Math23x7 Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:46 pm

I just checked the 0Z GFS for the February 7th.  While the precipitation is over Eastern LI, surface temperatures are in the upper 30s to near 40...

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2285
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:46 pm

YOU HAVE A -EPO, BIG PNA, -AO AND 50/50 SET UP

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:47 pm

A BEAST WITH TREMENDOUS INTENSITY - BLIZZ WRITTEN ALL OVER THIS ONE

Long Range Thread 10.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f264

Long Range Thread 10.0 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42


Long Range Thread 10.0 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43


Last edited by amugs on Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:10 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:50 pm

Very explosive pattern on the GFS
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:03 am

14-17th peeps

Long Range Thread 10.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f372

Long Range Thread 10.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f384

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:08 am

Holy storminess and coldness setting up here as shown by the 0z gfs tonight - what until it picks up on the dynamics from our trop forcing and the GOA LP retrograding - showed signs with a huge pna spike and N epo and but still more work to be done in teh few days here.

Another Mugstradamus prediction - we are about to encounter one of the snowies feb/march couplets on record - I thing we eclipse last years couplet of snowfall for F/M

PS - All my storms are their in the call I made last night Mugs the Animal Steel coming through

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Guest Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:20 am

I know you can't put any faith in individual runs, but I'd love to see the 0z GFS play out just like that for the Feb 10-12.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:53 am

Euro has a coastal snowstorm for Feb 8.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:43 am

I know their are all storms showing up but does it become an issue with spacing?
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:31 am

Wow at EURO for next Sunday!

Long Range Thread 10.0 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f198

Long Range Thread 10.0 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f204

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19991
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:32 am

GFS is too late with the phase. Northern New England is in the bullseye for this storm.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19991
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:47 am

Plenty time to get it where we need it
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:06 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS is too late with the phase. Northern New England is in the bullseye for this storm.

A lot of solutions coming up
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:06 am

I wouldn't rule out the Friday storm just yet. GFS is really close.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:38 am

@Math23x7 wrote:I just checked the 0Z GFS for the February 7th.  While the precipitation is over Eastern LI, surface temperatures are in the upper 30s to near 40...

Way too far out to worry about those types of details Mikey.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6851
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:39 am

@Snow88 wrote:I wouldn't rule out the Friday storm just yet. GFS is really close.
I wouldn't rule anything out 5 days out the pattern is going to shift into a volatile one.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Guest Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:51 am

I know it's only the long range op runs so don't kill me here but.................

All these solutions so far look like a repeat of last year where Boston gets absolutely destroyed every 3 or 4 days while we just miss out, and they also look a little warm. Let me see the ensembles and I'll get excited. Hopefully the NW trends as we get closer continue.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:05 am

syosnow94 wrote:I know it's only the long range op runs so don't kill me here but.................

All these solutions so far look like a repeat of last year where Boston gets absolutely destroyed every 3 or 4 days while we just miss out, and they also look a little warm.  Let me see the ensembles and I'll get excited.  Hopefully the NW trends as we get closer continue.
I don't know about warm the PV is going to elongated and the the cold air will be pumping into the NE.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:06 am

https://youtu.be/ntITkhITzvA
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 28 1, 2, 3 ... 14 ... 28  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum