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Long Range Thread 10.0

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:58 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Big rainstorm on the 8th for the majority of the northeast

A week away and this afternoon the operational had mostly snow. Who knows what tomorrow's runs bring.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:58 am

Just watched a great video from Joe cioffi. Showing the last few hrs runs and the difference between. He even says Theirs lots to change. Its the storm on the 8th.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JyAylaV-qew&feature=youtu.be
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:43 am

Lots of solutions on the table. We need the northern stream energy in Canada to phase into the southern branch. Some models close off H5 in Canada. Not good.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:51 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Lots of solutions on the table. We need the northern stream energy in Canada to phase into the southern branch. Some models close off H5 in Canada. Not good.
6z GFS is back to showing a more offshore track, albeit a little too far. Model mayhem is at work here.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:33 am

EPS is really close to the 6z GFS
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:14 am

For those worried about the GFS showing a warmer solution, today's 12z shows a complete miss and OTS solution. This is exactly why we can't get bent out of shape over thermal profiles, because we don't even know if we are going to see any precipitation lol We can't really worry about any threat until Wednesday's system is out of the picture, because A) that will set up the baroclinic zone, which completely determines the storm track and B) we won't have any sampling of the following energies until this weekend, so anything before then is a guess anyway. A LOT can change between now and then, so just take whatever you see these next several days with trepidation. Utilize ensembles more-so than the operational runs to try to find trends in the general pattern evolution, not the specifics.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:21 pm

@rb924119 wrote:For those worried about the GFS showing a warmer solution, today's 12z shows a complete miss and OTS solution. This is exactly why we can't get bent out of shape over thermal profiles, because we don't even know if we are going to see any precipitation lol We can't really worry about any threat until Wednesday's system is out of the picture, because A) that will set up the baroclinic zone, which completely determines the storm track and B) we won't have any sampling of the following energies until this weekend, so anything before then is a guess anyway. A LOT can change between now and then, so just take whatever you see these next several days with trepidation. Utilize ensembles more-so than the operational runs to try to find trends in the general pattern evolution, not the specifics.
No worries with the 12z GFS OTS solution. All winter long storms have trended west inside 72 hours.
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:23 pm

Rb the trend today is the southern system is faster than previous modeled. Going to be a lot of waffling of the models the next few days. By the way take a look at the CMC ill ride that one for today. Very Happy
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:06 pm

CMC is Godzilla verbatim for most even though the LP is actually slightly inland, I guess it brings its own cold?
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Post by Guest Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:16 pm

@rb924119 wrote:For those worried about the GFS showing a warmer solution, today's 12z shows a complete miss and OTS solution. This is exactly why we can't get bent out of shape over thermal profiles, because we don't even know if we are going to see any precipitation lol We can't really worry about any threat until Wednesday's system is out of the picture, because A) that will set up the baroclinic zone, which completely determines the storm track and B) we won't have any sampling of the following energies until this weekend, so anything before then is a guess anyway. A LOT can change between now and then, so just take whatever you see these next several days with trepidation. Utilize ensembles more-so than the operational runs to try to find trends in the general pattern evolution, not the specifics.

I Think Frank should put this up on the scroll 24/7. I feel like I read 2 or 3 posts exactly like this every day the past several weeks. (even though it's accurate) Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:21 pm

Is it just me or does the 12z CMC op show a storm on Friday into Saturday?

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:34 pm

Euro Op also looks like it's OTS.  Phase a little too late.  Southern energy a little too fast.  Storm bombs out though!

And whatever this Navy or NOGAPS model is? it shows a Humdinger of a storm around hour 168!

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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:46 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Is it just me or does the 12z CMC op show a storm on Friday into Saturday?
Ukie came way west and is a nice hit for us on Friday I'm not sure about temps but if it's snow it's a 2 to 4 inch type deal. Euro also came west but just scrapes New York City definitely something to watch
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:47 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Euro Op also looks like it's OTS.  Phase a little too late.  Southern energy a little too fast.  Storm bombs out though!

And whatever this Navy or NOGAPS model is? it shows a Humdinger of a storm around hour 168!
Euro looks to develop a second wave on the coast with the northern stream at hour 168
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:57 pm

Euro has a snow storm for our area from hour 168 - 192 all northern stream. Talk about a different solution the models are all over the place at least we're getting inside of 7 days or close to that
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:10 pm

12Z EURO

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f180

12Z CMC

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f171

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:35 pm

Friday anyone? Looks interesting!!!!

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:44 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Friday anyone?  Looks interesting!!!!

yes it is now - coming west on Euro - took a big jog west and srefs have it as a scrapper as well now. This could be a 1-3" type of event if we can get it to stay west - it woudl set up the barcolinic zone for the other storms next week. As rb said, lots of solutions out there and we have to be patient for these as the cutter moves through.

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f69

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f72

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:22 pm

If this happens it looks like a classic post-frontal passage overruning event.  Temps might be marginal though.

I agree about setting up the baroclinic zone by the way.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:39 pm

syosnow94 wrote:If this happens it looks like a classic post-frontal passage overruning event.  Temps might be marginal though.

I agree about setting up the baroclinic zone by the way.

True but lets worry about that later like Thurs night/Fri Morning- if we can get this it would be BIG going forward IMO.

Let's not forget my predictions here peeps:

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:52 pm

lee golberg said monday nite into tue we will have costal storm with snow even to the coast

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:03 pm

@frank 638 wrote:lee golberg said monday nite into tue we will have costal storm with snow even to the coast
I CALLED THIS LAST WEEK - S HIM!!

FRONTAL WAVE JUMPED ABOUT 100 WE ST ON GFS - MOOD FLAKES FOR LI AND COASTAL NJ - WATCH IT JUMP MORE AND GIVE US A 1-3"

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f57


JMA SAYS HELLO!!!!!!!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 P1_GZ_D5_PN_180_0000

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 P1_GZ_D5_PN_180_0000



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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:04 pm

JMA PART 2

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 GZ_D5_PN_168_0000

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 5 GZ_D5_PN_180_0000

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:07 pm

TAKE THIS MJO FROM .................ISOTHERM - TROP FORCING SUCKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!


JUST LIKE JAN 15-16TH - SO MANY CANCELLED WINTER - SOME SUCH YE LITTLE FAITH.

To no surprise, I encourage everyone to take a look at the difference b/t the 12z EPS geopotential height signal near Alaska in the D 11-15 range versus the 0z EPS run (around Feb 13th-15th). Significant difference. Does not drive the low heights eastward toward British Columbia as much, which consequently results in a much improved downstream signal over the East. 0Z EPS indicated warmer than normal temperatures D12-15, while the new run now has normal / slightly below and I'm confident is still correcting. All this talk of MJO ending winter in mid Feb is going to go down in proverbial flames in my opinion.


BOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!

PNA RIDGE SPIKE IS GOING TO BE LIKE +4 SD PEEPS WITH A N 2 TO 3ISH EPO YOU WATCH!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:09 pm

A little scary how the ggem was showing the last storm this far out with the jma and euro but was also a full day earlier at that time too

TWIGHLIGHT ZONE HERE PEEPS!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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