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Long Range Thread 10.0

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Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:13 pm

VERY CLOSE CALL ON THIS ONE - 3RD ONE SHOULD BE A BOMB LETS SEE

CANT CLOSE OFF OVER FLA FOR GODS SAKE!!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f141

NYC AND LI GET SNOW OUT OF THIS

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:19 pm

#2 GIVES CITY AND LI ACCUMULATIONS FROM #2

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f144

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:21 pm

HOLY CRAP WHAT A PNA RIDGE OUT WEST WOWZA!!
MONSTER 50/50 OVER GREENLAND !!

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:24 pm

GFS CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH - WHAT A RIDICULOUS RUN HERE - HUGE SPIKE OUT WEST, MONSTER 50/50 BLOCK OVER GREENLAND AND IT TRIES TO FORM A STORM ON ITS TAIL END

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f174

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:25 pm

@amugs wrote:#2 GIVES CITY AND LI ACCUMULATIONS FROM #2

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f144
Coastal Jersey too Amugs lol. Now this Friday May scrape coastal areas too
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:26 pm

GOOD TRENDS HERE AS THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP WHAT HAS BEEN STRESSED HERE - THE CHANCES ARE THERE AND UKIE, CMC, EURO AND JMA ALL SHOW STORM FOR US THE LONE HERMIT - GFS RIGHT NOW!!

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:34 pm

Giddy up GW's cause look at what we have in store - from TWIT

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 56b1222e2ca7d_2-2-20164-39-13PM.thumb.jpg.daa2ab5e7be6ca7e1e9ee08c32da3617

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 56b12243a9eec_2-2-20164-39-33PM.thumb.jpg.9dea1b3d7c6961477d49f354d17cc2be

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:36 pm

@amugs wrote:Giddy up GW's cause look at what we have in store - from TWIT

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 56b1222e2ca7d_2-2-20164-39-13PM.thumb.jpg.daa2ab5e7be6ca7e1e9ee08c32da3617

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 56b12243a9eec_2-2-20164-39-33PM.thumb.jpg.9dea1b3d7c6961477d49f354d17cc2be
Can you explain mugs
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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:43 pm

Please explain is that good news or bad news

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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:54 pm

@amugs wrote:

TAKE THIS MJO FROM .................ISOTHERM - TROP FORCING SUCKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!



JUST LIKE JAN 15-16TH - SO MANY CANCELLED WINTER - SOME SUCH YE LITTLE FAITH.

To no surprise, I encourage everyone to take a look at the difference b/t the 12z EPS geopotential height signal near Alaska in the D 11-15 range versus the 0z EPS run (around Feb 13th-15th). Significant difference. Does not drive the low heights eastward toward British Columbia as much, which consequently results in a much improved downstream signal over the East. 0Z EPS indicated warmer than normal temperatures D12-15, while the new run now has normal / slightly below and I'm confident is still correcting. All this talk of MJO ending winter in mid Feb is going to go down in proverbial flames in my opinion.



BOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!

PNA RIDGE SPIKE IS GOING TO BE LIKE +4 SD PEEPS WITH A N 2 TO 3ISH EPO YOU WATCH!
Mugs read that earlier and he may be right. Things def look better today. My only concern is surface temperatures most guidance has us 40 or above through next Tuesday. Damn El Nino
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:00 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Friday anyone?  Looks interesting!!!!

Jersey coast and LI may get a snow shower or light accumulation but surface temps are above freezing. Not interested. Real threats are next week. 8th-11th. 2 storms to track.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:11 pm

@amugs wrote:GOOD TRENDS HERE AS THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP WHAT HAS BEEN STRESSED HERE - THE CHANCES ARE THERE AND UKIE, CMC, EURO AND JMA ALL SHOW STORM FOR US THE LONE HERMIT - GFS RIGHT NOW!!
Good trends today Mugs! All the models are showing a strong signal for a snowstorm early next week. Although the GFS currently shows an OTS solution, don't forget the west trend with storms this winter. Hope we can at least develop some transient blocking to slow this bad boy down. I'm starting to think we'll all be staying up late watching the models starting Friday night.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:45 pm

Nuts,
The gfs is lower resolution model without 4advar as the cmc,euro, ukie so it has one hell of a time deciphering between all these convective storms, probably be late to the party as usual!! 50/50 form over Gland and Canada Maritime, be a log jam of storms as we get to middle of next week.

@skins & frank 638

The map shows a lot of warming that totally dislogldges the PV off its arse well axis. Thus allowing for a  Neg AO = cold arctice air to filter down and a Neg NAO to form in response to this. This is what Frank has been talking about for weeks now.

@Al, let's not worry about temps at this stage, maybe problems for the coast and LI and not a problem n & w and if that happens well too bad, the lhv peeps need one of these old time storms. I'd take a snow sleet fest for them to get 6" plus.

Models are catching onto things as they did three weeks ago with the massive perturbation in the atmosphere by ..... shall I say it again TROP FORCING!!

If mjo makes it to phase 6 by mid late Feb then we are in great shape as per the maps in posted yesterday showing the 500mb level and the 2m temps fir us, win win baby!!

Two choices going forward here
1. get on the train or
2. stay at the station and miss all the fun

So what is your choice??


Wooooot.  Woooooooootttt

LGR!!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Guest Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:54 pm

Rangers do look good tonight Mugs. Without Schneider playing out of his mind it could easily be 3 or 4 nothing by now.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:11 pm

I'm ready for more snow
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Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 Empty Thanks for the information I say get on the train all a aboard woooo woooo let it snowwwwww

Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:27 pm

@amugs wrote:Nuts,
The gfs is lower resolution model without 4advar as the cmc,euro, ukie so it has one hell of a time deciphering between all these convective storms, probably be late to the party as usual!! 50/50 form over Gland and Canada Maritime, be a log jam of storms as we get to middle of next week.

@skins & frank 638

The map shows a lot of warming that totally dislogldges the PV off its arse well axis. Thus allowing for a  Neg AO = cold arctice air to filter down and a Neg NAO to form in response to this. This is what Frank has been talking about for weeks now.

@Al, let's not worry about temps at this stage, maybe problems for the coast and LI and not a problem n & w and if that happens well too bad, the lhv peeps need one of these old time storms. I'd take a snow sleet fest for them to get 6" plus.

Models are catching onto things as they did three weeks ago with the massive perturbation in the atmosphere by ..... shall I say it again TROP FORCING!!

If mjo makes it to phase 6 by mid late Feb then we are in great shape as per the maps in posted yesterday showing the 500mb level and the 2m temps fir us, win win baby!!

Two choices going forward here
1. get on the train or
2. stay at the station and miss all the fun

So what is your choice??


Wooooot.  Woooooooootttt

LGR!!!!

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:03 pm

Srefs trending west for Friday peeps!!!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 6 SREFNE24Precip21078

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:14 pm

Bring it more west let it snow

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:36 pm

Two of the 26 members of the 21Z SREF have LaGuardia Airport getting over 10" of snow this weekend...

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:37 pm

5th threat may be coming back, I put it in February discussion because its not really a LR threat.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:07 pm

You know, I'm just looking at the 00z GFS coming in, and it's almost like there is just too much energy headed our way lol I don't know what to focus on, I don't know if the models know what to focus on, and I don't know if it's too busy for anything to come of any of it at all ahaha

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:08 pm

Wave 2 (January 8th) still very much needs to be followed but there are two obstacles in its way.

1. Confluence. There's a sharp trough over eastern Canada that may prevent wave 2 from coming north. If H5 closes off too far south then this storm is likely to affect the southeast only. 

2. Wave 3. Bad thing about wave 3 (energy entering the west coast) is it may prevent wave 2 from happening. Good thing about wave 3 is it could bring a strong Miller B to the area.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:10 pm

Wave 3 would happen on the 10th by the way

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:11 pm

@rb924119 wrote:You know, I'm just looking at the 00z GFS coming in, and it's almost like there is just too much energy headed our way lol I don't know what to focus on, I don't know if the models know what to focus on, and I don't know if it's too busy for anything to come of any of it at all ahaha

Right now I think it's a matter of when not if. Pattern amplification like this usually bolds well for the area. I think something will pop between 8th-11th

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wave 2 (January 8th) still very much needs to be followed but there are two obstacles in its way.

1. Confluence. There's a sharp trough over eastern Canada that may prevent wave 2 from coming north. If H5 closes off too far south then this storm is likely to affect the southeast only. 

2. Wave 3. Bad thing about wave 3 (energy entering the west coast) is it may prevent wave 2 from happening. Good thing about wave 3 is it could bring a strong Miller B to the area.

January 8th?????

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