NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 10.0

+37
moleson
dkodgis
jake732
Dunnzoo
Dtone
New Yorker 234
Grselig
keliza52
weatherwatchermom
docstox12
lglickman1
mako460
jimv45
SNOW MAN
hyde345
Bkdude
SoulSingMG
RJB8525
jmanley32
devsman
oldtimer
rb924119
NjWeatherGuy
nutleyblizzard
Joe Snow
chief7
algae888
frank 638
Radz
CPcantmeasuresnow
snow247
sroc4
Frank_Wx
skinsfan1177
Math23x7
amugs
Snow88
41 posters

Page 14 of 28 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 21 ... 28  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:00 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:12z para nice for all!!!
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Gfs_namer_153_850_temp_mslp_precip
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Gfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Gfs_namer_162_850_temp_mslp_precip

What did 12z Euro show?

Of course here we don't want the NW trend that has been the signature of this season because then it's rain for all. I hate to say I know what will happen.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:05 pm

yes cp I think it's a rainer. hp is in a terrible spot plus no block to help it move out slower.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:37 pm

@algae888 wrote:euro was a rain storm Sad if the euro verifies we go from near zero to 40"s and rain in 36 hours. plenty of frustrated folks if it's right

Al Euro is showing an apps runner right up teh spine of the appalachian - most likely never happens - need a major lp storm to do this or take this track. I summarize a track off teh coast up through LI into CT - if further East or a ENE track and we see a good storm - snow to ice to rain on the coast and LI and snow and ice N&W with more snow as yuo move away from teh coast.  Lots of time to trend but I am not seeing the Euro track at this time IMHO. Could it happen - heck anything is possible in the weather but is it as progged - I highly (99%) doubt it.

Have it go from Tenn and cut ENE is a favorable track - weenie in me. Very Happy

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12199
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:39 pm

I think the sleepless nights and long days caught up with me. I do not feel well. Of course our coldest temps of the season arrive this weekend. Sad

I am definitely tracking next weeks storm system. Huge differences between the GFS and EURO right now.

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Capture

The GFS close off the 500mb south of our area and track the 500mb low off the coast. The surface low pressure system takes a track along or just off our coast. This keeps the cold air locked into the northeast and would result in a wintry solution for most of the area.

The EURO, on the other hand, closes the 500mb trough west of us and tracks the 500mb low to our west. The surface low pressure system ends up taking a track up the Apps. This scenario keeps the wind flow from the south and east which allows mild air to stream into the area.

We have a 50/50 Low, +PNA, and -AO but the NAO is neutral to positive and the EPO is positive. This is an interesting setup and one that I think could bring a wintry solution to the area, especially those N&W of NYC. Even if this storm tries to cut, there will be a decent front-end thump of snow before changing to sleet then rain.

I am not favoring any model at this time. I want to see another 2 days worth of model runs before making that determination. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE, I would favor the front-end thump / inland track right now because it has Ensemble support. I also recall past events this winter where H5 closed off to our west resulting in rain for our area. Again, that is pure guess 6 days out. I will have better confidence on Friday.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:43 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter. Very Happy

Not a matter of if we get one last shot at winter Al. Its a matter of how awesome.  A little awesome or alot awesome: Not wishcasting.  

Hi at upper level sudden strat warming:  Almost to 2009/10.  A little later than then but I think with enough time to go out with a 3-5 week bang.  Nino is collapsing as well.    

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 30mb9065
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 10mb9065  

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Nino12

This will be our strongest warming of the season. Unfortunately, with 10hpa/60N winds not reversing this will be just another temporary change to our Tropospheric pattern instead of a permanent one. The Strat PV will redevelop over the Arctic by the end of this month.

Strat PV this week into the weekend:

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_1

Strat PV by next week:

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_15

There may be another warming very late this month - but by that time - we'll be heading into March and changes at the Troposphere by that point would just delay Spring. And that would just suck.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:59 pm

Could a clipper come in and help prevent the pd storm from cutting? Reinforce the cold air
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Guest Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:04 pm

Feel better Frank!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:05 pm

Frank you need your Mom or Nona to make you some good old fashion chicken soup and then have a hot toddy and go to bed!! Hope you feel better!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2950
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:49 pm

Feel.better frank and get ur rest

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2334
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:29 am

most of last nights guidance brings snow to rain for our area. those away from coast do better. euro and ukie trended east while cmc and gfs went west. gefs has a benchmark track while euro ens are west and warmer. interesting euro brings a second system right behind it. I do not have precip or temps but looks cold for snow....
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 F168
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 F192
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:43 am

gefs ind. members...
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26
cmc ens
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_25
eps
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_7
850's eps
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Guest Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:22 am

I'm actually not going to be home on LI next week. I will be in the Poconos for the week at Camelback with the family. It would be quite ironic if the snow followed me to the interior next week. I might start charging a fee where when it's going to snow I come and crash at your house so you can jackpot. Highest bidder wins!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:57 am

syosnow94 wrote:I'm actually not going to be home on LI next week.  I will be in the Poconos for the week at Camelback with the family. It would be quite ironic if the snow followed me to the interior next week. I might start charging a fee where when it's going to snow I come and crash at your house so you can jackpot. Highest bidder wins!

Can you stop in NENJ on your way for a couple of days?? Homemade cannoli's, baileys and free room and board - hot showers and fresh linens daily and a stocked fridge with beer and food. cheers


Last edited by amugs on Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12199
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by SNOW MAN Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:00 am

syosnow94 wrote:I'm actually not going to be home on LI next week.  I will be in the Poconos for the week at Camelback with the family. It would be quite ironic if the snow followed me to the interior next week. I might start charging a fee where when it's going to snow I come and crash at your house so you can jackpot. Highest bidder wins!

I live about 15 minutes from Camelback. You can crash at my house and when it snows you can shovel it for me. Very Happy
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1353
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 61
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Guest Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:29 am

I might be in for both!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:27 am

12Z GFS caves to the Euro, big rain and or slop storm for everyone, even the far N and W. You really can't make this stuff up. It's actually getting quite hilarious. And  this will be on the heels of a -5 to -15 degree temperatures through most of the HV Sunday morning. Maybe RB does okay for once, possibly SnowMan but even that's iffy.

It's 5 days and I know anything can happen but it won't, I at least called this one several days ago. I'm taking a lot of time off, this sh!t is not good for my mental state.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:37 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:12Z GFS caves to the Euro, big rain and or slop storm for everyone, even the far N and W. You really can't make this stuff up. It's actually getting quite hilarious. And  this will be on the heels of a -5 to -15 degree temperatures through most of the HV Sunday morning. Maybe RB does okay for once, possibly SnowMan but even that's iffy.

It's 5 days and I know anything can happen but it won't, I at least called this one several days ago. I'm taking a lot of time off, this sh!t is not good for my mental state.

sigh..i'll enjoy winter rest of this week and weekend
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:41 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:12Z GFS caves to the Euro, big rain storm for everyone, even the far N and W. You really can't make this stuff up. It's actually getting quite hilarious. And  this will be on the heels of a -5 to -15 degree temperatures through most of the HV Sunday morning.

It's 5 days and I know anything can happen but it won't, I at least called this one several days ago. I'm taking a lot of time off, this sh!t is not good for my mental state.

CP, I know how you feel. The one time all winter the HV and EPA may be in a better position for snow and its too far west. There are still 5 days to go but it's looking like front end snow to brief FR and then to rain. I'm in the valley so it will be interesting to see how quickly the cold air gets pushed out at the surface.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:42 am

Not happening this year CP. The one storm that comes up my way and it will be heavy rain that's what I expected so no surprise.  I am ready for spring and Baseball I know its feb 11 but we just can't and will not cash in this year.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1140
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Guest Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:01 pm

Hold on, hold on. It's 5 days out. IMO you don't want to be in a good spot right now. I agree it doesn't look good right now, but I would rather have it that way than be in the bullseye. Storms ALWAYS trend. If it looks bad now it only has one way to trend right?

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:06 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hold on, hold on.  It's 5 days out.  IMO you don't want to be in a good spot right now.  I agree it doesn't look good right now, but I would rather have it that way than be in the bullseye.  Storms ALWAYS trend.  If it looks bad now it only has one way to trend right?

Sure, it could trend even further west. Mad
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Guest Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:07 pm

........as I just posted on the other thread. Winter Storm Warning in effect for the Outer Banks of North Carolina

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:08 pm

YEP IT WILL!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1140
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:20 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Hold on, hold on.  It's 5 days out.  IMO you don't want to be in a good spot right now.  I agree it doesn't look good right now, but I would rather have it that way than be in the bullseye.  Storms ALWAYS trend.  If it looks bad now it only has one way to trend right?

Sure, it could trend even further west. Mad

It will. This will be a Detroit special when all is said and done, which will make them happy, they are more snow deprived than us this year.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:27 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter. Very Happy

Do not recall was that a good winter?  Yeah at this point sorry guys but its just been big disappointments since last Friday, and the future weeks sound bleak before we get into nearing springtime.  Honestly I am ready for spring.  And bring on hurricane season LOL, I hear it may be a doozy
Jman really 95/96 75" and the historic blizzard. Actually if Central Park measured right it would have been over 80 inches

OMG duh, I was a teen then probably wasn't paying attention much but yes of course the 96 blizzard.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 14 of 28 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 21 ... 28  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum