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Long Range Thread 10.0

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:52 pm

The only way we can salvage snow with this storm is that it becomes very weak and we get waa snows with the warm front and the main storm slides to our south out to sea. No models are showing that at the moment but with strong high pressure in the Northeast the storm could trend weaker. Ao Rising 2 positive PNA collapsing and no 50/50 or negative NAO to keep the cold air in place. This is going to be the exact opposite of what happened last Friday. We had temperatures in the fifties Thursday and it snowed Friday morning. This storms will have temperatures below zero Sunday and rains Monday night and Tuesday
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:17 pm

SYo their and SC coast may get snwo and ice - those peopel wioll be paralyzed for days.

Lets see if we can get this back as Scott and I were discussing yesterday n write up s GEFS showing the +PNA and - EPO coming back by teh 21st of Feb, JB has discussed this as well!

Mon/Tues storm trend not good but time to see it trend back - Backlash snow could be impressive as the storm pulls out for the HV and NWNJ and NNJ JB using 2002 DEC 24-26 analog

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 15 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:35 pm

I just need this storm 50 miles further east and I will get buried up in the Poconos on Monday night and Tuesday!!,

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:37 pm

12Z Euro cuts this storm over Syracuse and straight north on this run -  amazing 15* on Monday morning to mid 40's and driving rain 36 hours later. Stupid pattern couldn't drive the 970mb monster storm in this path Tuesday right?

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:39 pm

This past Monday an epic all time storm goes wide right. Nw we could have record setting cold and then 24 hours later, another 970 bomb go wide left. You cannot make this up!!

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:41 pm

Going back 10 days there was tons of hype about 3 or 4 big threats coming. Now we could be seeing a scenario where all but 1 busts, and that 1 only affected coastal sections. Completely wacky frustrating winter season. (However I cannot complain)

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:46 pm

IF WE HAD EVEN A FAINT BLOCK OR HP TO OUR N WE HAVE A MAJOR SNOWSTORM!!!

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:49 pm

syosnow94 wrote:This past Monday an epic all time storm goes wide right.  Nw we could have record setting cold and then 24 hours later, another 970 bomb go wide left.  You cannot make this up!!

Jim I hear ya this is nuts and frustrating as all heck!! Jesus but we have some time and we know the models can go from a blizzard to nada or from a rainstorm to any scenario yuo can imagine. Pattern as presently being shown is going to be tough to get an all out snowstorm for the NYC metro area IMO.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:51 pm

@amugs wrote:SYo their and SC coast may get snwo and ice - those peopel wioll be paralyzed for days.

Lets see if we can get this back as Scott and I were discussing yesterday n write up s GEFS showing the +PNA and  - EPO coming back by teh 21st of Feb, JB has discussed this as well!

Mon/Tues storm trend not good but time to see it trend back - Backlash snow could be impressive as the storm pulls out for the HV and NWNJ and NNJ JB using 2002 DEC 24-26 analog

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 15 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23

That does well for me in NWNJ we'll see..
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:08 pm

JB,
1:40 Update after the euro 12z run - synopsis
Posted EURO is out to lunch with its 12z run and that we shall see this trend east and the GFS has teh better idea of this storm a track up to the Oh valley then a secondary pops off the DE/NJ coast and NYC goes from a front end thump to a rain and west and  north of NYC stay mostly snow to ice. Not buying EURO idea. To many conflicts within itself for this run.3/4 weight) dec 26-27 2012, 1/4 March 2-4 1994 analogs

http://www.nycareaweather.com/2012/12/dec-26-27-2012-storm-summary/

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html

Many more runs and waffling by models are up coming so sit tight and let's see what comes about - will tehHP hang a bit more? Will the Storm take a futher track east - secondary? Will it track west and bring us more wet  than white?

We shall see.............


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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:14 pm

This reminds of last year Superbowl storm where we went from snow to ice to sleet then back to snow

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:11 pm

i think i'll put this here i was trying to decide where would be the right place lol. some watches are going out for the cold

SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
215 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING DANGEROUS
 LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW WIND CHILLS AND FRIGID AIR
 TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN FROZEN PIPES,
 FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

* TEMPERATURES...5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

wonder if they'll spread that down to warren county and a few other
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:47 pm

Models look west with this, far interior hit only, some frozen precip to start maybe but unless a large trend east occurs we're seeing mostly rain. Good news is were not in the jackpot zone 5 days out and it will change every run so hopefully it shifts east. Just keep my lips sealed for a few days and check in once in a while, wouldnt go run to run with this yet.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:48 pm

Started a thread for 16th threat

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:08 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Models look west with this, far interior hit only, some frozen precip to start maybe but unless a large trend east occurs we're seeing mostly rain. Good news is were not in the jackpot zone 5 days out and it will change every run so hopefully it shifts east. Just keep my lips sealed for a few days and check in once in a while, wouldnt go run to run with this yet.

Dunno about an east shift, everythings been shifting west this season.

Anyway, I'd rather have the 1 or 2 inches of plain rain or 12 to 24 inches of fluffy snow.Can't stand the slop in between.
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:19 pm

The Mets out at Penn State in their 12 day outlook said that after this rain/snow event we would have warm air move in next Friday causing a minor snowfall. Then it would be warmer next weekend and probably through the end of the month with a few chances for rain showers. But they also said cold air would be looming to the North for March. I guess we shall see. I'm getting the feeling our Winter is coming to an end with a fizzle not a bang. Sad
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:39 pm

Some believe we got out with a bang so we shall see
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:18 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:The Mets out at Penn State in their 12 day outlook said that after this rain/snow event we would have warm air move in next Friday causing a minor snowfall. Then it would be warmer next weekend and probably through the end of the month with a few chances for rain showers. But they also said cold air would be looming to the North for March. I guess we shall see. I'm getting the feeling our Winter is coming to an end with a fizzle not a bang. Sad

It is a small window of warm or above normal.temps 22nd to 24th ish then we reload for what looks to be till the middle of March as MJO.pulse goes into phase 8 then then 2 and we have our triplet friends the n epo, pos pna which looks to be hyuuge, and a n ao come into play with a transient n nao.

PV dislodge from a ssw event as orogged currently and an active stj still and things get interesting once again. You know late Feb through mid March we see the big noys, nor'eastern and with an an sst atlantic this could be a lot of fun with polar air sitting up to our north or right over us .

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:01 pm

momma mia if this is right for late feb and early March - 1888 all over again - woop woop!!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 15 Ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.5f32872bb2eda1b606c2ab922af74648

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:29 pm

SCOTT THE SECOND WAVE HERE MY MAN :

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 15 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_27


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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 14, 2016 7:31 am

Can this winter just end please? Too many teases and not a sustained moderately cold airmass, transient cold and random storms going wherever the hell they want.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=264&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160214+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:49 am

I do not see our next winter storm threat coming until February 23rd-26th. There will be slight moderation of temps ranging from normal to slightly above between the 19th-22nd. By the 23rd, a +PNA looks to return with a -AO. The NAO will remain positive for the rest of the winter due to the inability of the Strat PV to favorably displace itself to the other side of the globe. I firmly believe February will end below normal despite the couple of warm days to start the month. If successful, the winter outlook will verify. In terms of snow amounts, I placed Central Park between 30-40". Another big storm the end of Feb will take them over 40" so we'll see what happens. Typically snowfall amounts in winter outlooks are a crapshoot. The main point is this will be another season of finishing above average with snowfall.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:59 am

We can actually finish above normal temp wise overall and above snowfall. Crazy winter
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:00 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:We can actually finish above normal temp wise overall and above snowfall. Crazy winter

That's not very rare in El Nino seasons. Snow pack is not known to last because of the above normal temps and rainstorms mixed in throughout the winter.

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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:22 am

GFS shows a big snowstorm on the 23rd
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