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Long Range Thread 10.0

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Post by dkodgis Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:57 pm

Doc, that is what I said about a month ago. I think it will be a cold, rainy spring and a cool, wet summer. If not, there will be cries of woe about the water table what with little snow this season (at least above I-84).
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Post by Snow88 Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:03 am

@amugs wrote:Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 2d165ax

GGEM cancels winter with no cold air in sight lol
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:08 pm

not one but two fantasy storms on 12z gfs to suck us back in...
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_asnow_neus_41
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_51
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:13 pm

@algae888 wrote:not one but two fantasy storms on 12z gfs to suck us back in...
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_asnow_neus_41
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_51

OK, that GFS would be the one that lets us in the HV catch up to you guys S and E.The way the trends have been for these snowstorms to go S and E for years, I'd say that GFS is a 50 to 1 shot.The kind of horse at the track you bet on that comes in three hours after the race starts.Nice to look at it, though, that map could be from the 50's and 60's.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:45 pm

This now brings my seasonal snowfall total, if all of the GFS fantasy storms this year reached their potential of 284 inches.

A good season in any fantasy world.
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:50 pm

Not bad CP. so what you are saying is the long range GFS has a 5% accuracy rate predicting snowfall. ( you received 1/20th of what it predicted)

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:15 pm

@algae888 wrote:not one but two fantasy storms on 12z gfs to suck us back in...
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_asnow_neus_41
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_51

That snowfall isn't even including the 2nd storm nor all of the 1st as the snow map only goes out to 240 hrs ha, reel us back in!
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:19 pm

What a tease the GooFuS is and CP is 1 million percent corrct, for every guidance fantasy storm it showed this winter we'd be grading this winter an A!!

2-3 days out, blocking on euro is insane, stj pumping and two big coastals on SV and what will happen??

Anyone's guess. IF thee LR OP and even the ENS maps are for real then March will be fun, JB thinks so and then we flip to spring by mid month. We shall see....

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:19 pm

Wxbell does however go out to 384 with snow map, ready for the fitrst storms totals..... Shocked

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Untitl12
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:21 pm

I guess this belongs in banter but I put it with what al had posted. I will post the ridiculous 384 hrs snow total in banter lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:25 pm

I wouldn't put any stock into the LR we have seen this all winter. Hey I got a bridge to sell.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Not bad CP. so what you are saying is the long range GFS has a 5% accuracy rate predicting snowfall.  ( you received 1/20th of what it predicted)

Jimmy, true up here in the HV with the forever S and E trend of these snowstorms.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:23 pm

JB touting the SOI crash and teh cooler much cooler waters in teh eastern pac from nino's collapse to shunt the OLR maps Frank pointed out and which should help trap the Trop Forcing over near the dateline area and not propagate west:

Because the water is much cooler in the eastern Pacific than central, it should stall the convective feedback area where it is and lead to this pattern setting up a southern jet under blocking for much of the coming month. Any shortening of wavelengths could mean big storms like you see now. given the trough should be near the east coast the first 15 days of the month, it would be there that we have the best chance for phasing but expect plenty of cold and storms or at least rumors of them for much of the nation from the southern and central rockies into the east as I dont expect the wild warm shots out of the southern plains, relative to normal, to show up from now till at least mid March, As reluctant as winter may have been to come, you may find it that way to go. I have may reasons, and have tried to lay them out for you in systematic fashion, When I say 5-10 days before I expect to see a big SOI crash to initiate something, the crash occurs, I am going to be awful stubborn backing off what I think the large scale result of that crash is

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Screen_Shot_2016_02_21_at_1_23_55_PM

This is nice to see if we get it to come to fruition!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Cmc_z500a_noram_61_1(2)

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:45 pm

NWS has us for highs in the upper 40's and low 50's early next week. What a disconnect here

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NWS has us for highs in the upper 40's and low 50's early next week.  What a disconnect here

I just saw that same forecast for here too .. logged on and saw we had same question...what the heck .did things change?? Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 23, 2016 7:39 am

@amugs wrote:JB touting the SOI crash and teh cooler much cooler waters in teh eastern pac from nino's collapse to shunt the OLR maps Frank pointed out and which should help trap the Trop Forcing over near the dateline area and not propagate west:

Because the water is much cooler in the eastern Pacific than central, it should stall the convective feedback area where it is and lead to this pattern setting up a southern jet under blocking for much of the coming month. Any shortening of wavelengths could mean big storms like you see now. given the trough should be near the east coast the first 15 days of the month, it would be there that we have the best chance for phasing but expect plenty of cold and storms or at least rumors of them for much of the nation from the southern and central rockies into the east as I dont expect the wild warm shots out of the southern plains, relative to normal, to show up from now till at least mid March, As reluctant as winter may have been to come, you may find it that way to go. I have may reasons, and have tried to lay them out for you in systematic fashion, When I say 5-10 days before I expect to see a big SOI crash to initiate something, the crash occurs, I am going to be awful stubborn backing off what I think the large scale result of that crash is

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Screen_Shot_2016_02_21_at_1_23_55_PM

This is nice to see if we get it to come to fruition!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Cmc_z500a_noram_61_1(2)

JB is often spot on when it comes to his "cattle prod to the atmosphere" when the SOI crashes occur. Here is the latest daily values. The crash continues. FWIW he called for an additional 10-20" of snow in NYC before the season is up. We shall see.

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Soi10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Tue Feb 23, 2016 8:35 am

I hope he's right! 10-20" more would be insanely good at this juncture. As I posted up above, NWS has me for upper 40's to low 50's early next week.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 23, 2016 8:58 am

syosnow94 wrote:I hope he's right!  10-20" more would be insanely good at this juncture.  As I posted up above, NWS has me for upper 40's to low 50's early next week.

If we get it it will likely not be during any sustained cold.  It will be in and out..most likely.  After the cold shot later this week by early next week models have the western ridge collapse with a ridge undercutting the PV in Canada and leading to above normal temps again. GFS

Cold shot/Friday
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_z500a_namer_14


By Sat
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_z500a_namer_19

Sunday into Monday:
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_z500a_namer_24

Euro is very similar

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Snow88 Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:40 am

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I hope he's right!  10-20" more would be insanely good at this juncture.  As I posted up above, NWS has me for upper 40's to low 50's early next week.

If we get it it will likely not be during any sustained cold.  It will be in and out..most likely.  After the cold shot later this week by early next week models have the western ridge collapse with a ridge undercutting the PV in Canada and leading to above normal temps again. GFS

Cold shot/Friday
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_z500a_namer_14


By Sat
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_z500a_namer_19

Sunday into Monday:
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Gfs_z500a_namer_24

Euro is very similar

Not looking good for any sustained period of winter weather
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:59 am

So no 40 inch snow storm in Orange County next week as per yesterdays GFS?

Well knock me over with a feather.
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Post by Guest Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:20 am

GFS has a GLC on March 1st. Then 2 gigantic sub 990 bombs right on the BM. One on the 3rd and the other on the 9th. Canadian and Euro both have the first cutter than not so much after.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:40 am

Ride the wave of teleconnections - for the 1st week of March

EPS AO
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Eps_ao_00

NAO
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Eps_nao_00

EPO
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Eps_epo_bias

PNA
Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Eps_pna_bias

Looks like a cold shot possible warm up then a decently sustained period from the 3rdish until 10thish if the teles prove right. This would line up with the trop forcing and the MJO phase going into 8 this weekend

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 NCPE_phase_21m_full

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 ECMF_phase_51m_full


Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 27 Combined_image

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:50 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:So no 40 inch snow storm in Orange County next week as per yesterdays GFS?

Well knock me over with a feather.

affraid affraid affraid
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:35 pm

Frank, about a week ago, you seemed pretty confident that NYC would get the 8.8" it needs to hit 40" on the seasonal snow total. Do you still have that level of confidence going into March?

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:GFS has a GLC on March 1st.  Then 2 gigantic sub 990 bombs right on the BM.  One on the 3rd and the other on the 9th.  Canadian and Euro both have the first cutter than not so much after.  

00Z GFS now shows the cutter on March 1st. The 2nd storm threat which was on the BM on March 3rd now is a cutter tracking over Detroit. (a 600 mile move west from one run to the next) and the storm threat for 3/9 trended west and disorganized. I know this far out it means almost nothing but it is actually comical!! Shocked Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

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