Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Well.well well, good morning ya'll and I see we have a light to medium range storm from the latest maps. NW trend keeps ticking away!! Great job overnight Cree NJ and Al (other Al)!!
WHITE GOLLLLLLLLDDDDDDD BABY!! Take another 20 mile tick nw for imby please Alex!!
Fun times ahead here mates.
WHITE GOLLLLLLLLDDDDDDD BABY!! Take another 20 mile tick nw for imby please Alex!!
Fun times ahead here mates.
Last edited by amugs on Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:40 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Latest 4km NAM:


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
N&W snow drought continues
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
0Z UKIE!!!
WTH? WWA will be needed for NYC and EAST?

WTH? WWA will be needed for NYC and EAST?

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Wow! I forgot to include Ukie in my post but it too has been right in line with Euro/RGEM in consistency and higher totals west.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
SROC - 4K NAm is actually in line with each of the models but has teh heavier precip trending west




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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
@amugs wrote:SROC - 4K NAm is actually in line with each of the models but has teh heavier precip trending west
Yeah its crazy. 4k NAM has 10 IMBY. It has sharp cutoffs west though. Def trending west. The 12z today should be interesting.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
The differences at 500mb regarding tomorrow's system is quite different on latest modeling compared to earlier in the week.
Tuesday's 12z GFS valid 1pm Friday:

Latest GFS valid 1pm Friday:

Notice how the trough is stronger, the vorticity is more potent, and it's closer to the coast. This makes a huge difference with where the front and surface low tracks.
The RGEM seems to be leading the way with this one, as have the SREFS. The GFS caught on last night.


There is decent 700mb VV's as well to promote lift and enhanced snow rates along the coast, especially Long Island.


Right now I think this starts as a rain / mix for most with a transition to snow. Surface temps are above freezing but boundary layers are supportive of snow. I think most accumulations will be relegated to grassy surfaces. The worst of the snow will be between 5-9am on Friday. Here is what I am thinking with snow accumulations for the area.

We'll see how this plays out on today's models. There is no denying the west trend at this point.
Tuesday's 12z GFS valid 1pm Friday:

Latest GFS valid 1pm Friday:

Notice how the trough is stronger, the vorticity is more potent, and it's closer to the coast. This makes a huge difference with where the front and surface low tracks.
The RGEM seems to be leading the way with this one, as have the SREFS. The GFS caught on last night.


There is decent 700mb VV's as well to promote lift and enhanced snow rates along the coast, especially Long Island.


Right now I think this starts as a rain / mix for most with a transition to snow. Surface temps are above freezing but boundary layers are supportive of snow. I think most accumulations will be relegated to grassy surfaces. The worst of the snow will be between 5-9am on Friday. Here is what I am thinking with snow accumulations for the area.

We'll see how this plays out on today's models. There is no denying the west trend at this point.
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
WHOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA FRANCIS P WITH THE WHITE GOLD MAP - AGGRESSIVE CALL - FN LOVE IT!! THIS IS SUPER BOWL 2014 ALLOVER AGAIN - NEG TILT BIG TIME IN THE LATEST H5 MAP!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
How does this affect next week storm if at all?
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Wow, sneak attack NJ you were right all along, just needs jog a tony bit west to get me into some good stuff but Frank ur 2-4 makes me happy, guess I gotta let my CT and RI friends know to expect 3-6+, they won't be happy not snow lovers. I hope the media talks about this right now nothing on news.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
To expand a little further on what Frank mentioned regarding the GFS trend Ill show the Euro at 500mb since that was the example I used in my prev write up:
Recall the 00z Run from Jan 31st Euro 500mb map:

" />
Pay particular attention to the trough being positive by 12z Friday, the wave spacing between the next system and Friday system, and the ridge in between them.
Now look at last nights Euro 500mb map valid the same Friday 12z time frame:

Three important differences. Wave spacing between the two systems is better spread apart(second system is further west), and the the second system is deeper. This allows the ridge in between to be more amped than the prev image above. Pay particular attention to the height lines within the area I have circled, then look at the same area on the first map. Models clearly had those height lines flatter and have trended steeper with time.
The wave spacing was key to allowing the ridge to trend a tad more amped, this in turn allowed the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough better for Friday which is why it tilted into the neutral position. If you recall from the prev discussion the more the trough tilted towards neutral trough the stronger LP would be allong the frontal boundary, and a more robust moisture plume, and a NW trend to the precip shield.
Recall the 00z Run from Jan 31st Euro 500mb map:

Pay particular attention to the trough being positive by 12z Friday, the wave spacing between the next system and Friday system, and the ridge in between them.
Now look at last nights Euro 500mb map valid the same Friday 12z time frame:

Three important differences. Wave spacing between the two systems is better spread apart(second system is further west), and the the second system is deeper. This allows the ridge in between to be more amped than the prev image above. Pay particular attention to the height lines within the area I have circled, then look at the same area on the first map. Models clearly had those height lines flatter and have trended steeper with time.
The wave spacing was key to allowing the ridge to trend a tad more amped, this in turn allowed the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough better for Friday which is why it tilted into the neutral position. If you recall from the prev discussion the more the trough tilted towards neutral trough the stronger LP would be allong the frontal boundary, and a more robust moisture plume, and a NW trend to the precip shield.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Frank you lied to me 2 days ago when I said this Friday looked interesting and you said Na!!
All kidding aside, I will take 3" and run like I stole something!!


All kidding aside, I will take 3" and run like I stole something!!
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
latest rap...


algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
holy cow drove the kid to school, made a cup of tea, and wow...lots of changes!! is this a daytime storm...or overnight to night...rushing thru reading..so if I missed that somewhere sorry?!!
weatherwatchermom- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
@weatherwatchermom wrote:holy cow drove the kid to school, made a cup of tea, and wow...lots of changes!! is this a daytime storm...or overnight to night...rushing thru reading..so if I missed that somewhere sorry?!!
Early morning Joanne, just what you need to drive the kids to school!
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Wow








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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
SREFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!
NW TREND BAZINGA


Last edited by amugs on Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

_________________
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
@Dunnzoo wrote:@weatherwatchermom wrote:holy cow drove the kid to school, made a cup of tea, and wow...lots of changes!! is this a daytime storm...or overnight to night...rushing thru reading..so if I missed that somewhere sorry?!!
Early morning Joanne, just what you need to drive the kids to school!
tx. absolutely and some of these moms are insane drivers going into the school lot on a sunny dry day!!


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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Hudson Valley doesn't get invited to the party once again. Shocker.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
WOWZA!!!!!!!! HOLLY AN UPTON DO THE SCRAMBLE LATER TODAY AFTER 12Z RUNS ALONG WITH PRO METS!!


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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
NAM looking better consolidated and tucked in at 12z
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