Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
lets see what the 6z goo f us brings in 25 minutes!!!
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Uptons snow map page isn't loading, overload lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
amugs wrote:lets see what the 6z goo f us brings in 25 minutes!!!
Your so excited u don't know what time of day it is, think u mean 12z my friend : )
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
GET READY PEEPS - UPTON MAY PULL THE TRIGGER REAL SOON!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
NW TREND HERE
Last edited by amugs on Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:38 am; edited 1 time in total
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Quick question. How confident are you guys that we can get the snow to accumulate. It's been 50 degrees plus for almost a week and the ground is soft and wet. IMO this may cut totals down significantly no?
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
WARNING CRITERIA AS PER GFS PEEPS
1" QPF for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island. .75"+ for NYC
1" QPF for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island. .75"+ for NYC
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
THOMAS
NJ WEATEHR GUY FTFW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
amugs wrote:WARNING CRITERIA AS PER GFS PEEPS
1" QPF for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island. .75"+ for NYC
Wxbell is showing more than half being rain for NYC area, 2-5 areawide with a thump of rain first. This close in temps can be taken seriously no?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
GFS SAYS HELLO RGEM, UKIE, NAM SREFS - AS FN USUAL LATE TO THE DANCE
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
jmanley32 wrote:amugs wrote:WARNING CRITERIA AS PER GFS PEEPS
1" QPF for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island. .75"+ for NYC
Wxbell is showing more than half being rain for NYC area, 2-5 areawide with a thump of rain first. This close in temps can be taken seriously no?
GFS WARM BIAS AT PLAY COMES IN AROUND 4AM AGAIN MAY START AS RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY CHANGEOVER - LOTS OF THINGS GO DOWN WITH A NIGHT TIME STORM!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
RAP AGAIN WHOAAAA - NW TREND !!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
jmanley32 wrote:amugs wrote:WARNING CRITERIA AS PER GFS PEEPS
1" QPF for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island. .75"+ for NYC
Wxbell is showing more than half being rain for NYC area, 2-5 areawide with a thump of rain first. This close in temps can be taken seriously no?
Temp profiiles are diff on EuroRGEM/UKIE. Like Mugs said warm bias.
Edit: temp profiles at the time of the heaviest precip are similar 30-34*. with dew points and 2mT crashing. We could see ratios 7-8:1 over eastern sections which would dampen totals, but Im not so sure of that anyway
Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:07 am; edited 1 time in total
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:amugs wrote:WARNING CRITERIA AS PER GFS PEEPS
1" QPF for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island. .75"+ for NYC
Wxbell is showing more than half being rain for NYC area, 2-5 areawide with a thump of rain first. This close in temps can be taken seriously no?
Temp profiiles are diff on EuroRGEM/UKIE. Like Mugs said warm bias
Oh good, : )
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
amugs wrote:RAP AGAIN WHOAAAA - NW TREND !!
Dang how often does this model come out and how valid is it? Its the most NW of all models has warning level snow for man in the area.
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
amugs wrote:RAP AGAIN WHOAAAA - NW TREND !!
If this is taken seriously just NW of NYC on east is getting a WSW this afternoon.
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:amugs wrote:WARNING CRITERIA AS PER GFS PEEPS
1" QPF for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island. .75"+ for NYC
Wxbell is showing more than half being rain for NYC area, 2-5 areawide with a thump of rain first. This close in temps can be taken seriously no?
Temp profiiles are diff on EuroRGEM/UKIE. Like Mugs said warm bias.
Edit: temp profiles at the time of the heaviest precip are similar 30-34*. with dew points and 2mT crashing. We could see ratios 7-8:1 over eastern sections early on which might dampen totals, but Im not so sure of that happens
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
I hope for me it changes to snow eastern Cnj looks to get the goods
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
We lose the very beginning to rain when precipitation comes down as heavy as what the models are showing it will transition to snow quickly it may have a tough time accumulating at first but being that it's going to be at night and snowing at a good clip we shouldn't have too many problems accumulating
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
This could very well be a high impact storm with heavy wet snow sticking to a tree branches and wires going to be a nightmare for tomorrow morning's commute
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Timing is everything in these storms Al. NYC gets 30 inches of snow on a Saturday two weeks ago and walks away relatively unscathed. Meanwhile a 6 inch storm whose peak intensity is rush hour on a Friday morning could prove more eventful, at least commuting wise, than the aforementioned 30 inch storm.
Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:44 am; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
algae888 wrote:This could very well be a high impact storm with heavy wet snow sticking to a tree branches and wires going to be a nightmare for tomorrow morning's commute
Thanks for reminding me Al, LOL my job has no sympathy since the majority of people us public transit. I am too far to take that commute.
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:algae888 wrote:This could very well be a high impact storm with heavy wet snow sticking to a tree branches and wires going to be a nightmare for tomorrow morning's commute
Timing is everything in these storms Al. NYC gets 30 inches of snow on a Saturday two weeks ago and walks away relatively unscathed. Meanwhile a 6 inch storm whose peak intensity is rush hour on a Friday morning could prove more eventful, at least commuting wise, than the aforementioned 30 inch storm.
Totally it could and likely will be mayhem. There was a 5 car accident on the Bronx River northbound this morning with only damp roads.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
UKIE TO THE FN RECUE BOTH STORMS HERE - WOW!!
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
CHRIST WHAT A JUMP NW ON THIS RUN
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
What time is the startamugs wrote:UKIE TO THE FN RECUE BOTH STORMS HERE - WOW!!
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