NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Page 10 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:41 pm

@Quietace wrote:Be wary of using QPF to translate into snowfall. Coastal areas especially might lose a significant percentage of it for cooling the surface. .75 QPF might be 3-6 inches....1.0 QPF might be 5-8 inches...
I agree Ace with temps being warm but even if .25 is rain it's still a good hit for us
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Quietace Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:47 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Be wary of using QPF to translate into snowfall. Coastal areas especially might lose a significant percentage of it for cooling the surface. .75 QPF might be 3-6 inches....1.0 QPF might be 5-8 inches...
I agree Ace with temps being warm but even if .25 is rain it's still a good hit for us
More like .25 QPF as R, .25 QPF used as S to cool the surface, than .25 QPF as grassy accumulations, then .25 QPF as full on accumulating snow on all surfaces. It really depends on the forcing that actually shows up and rates as the coastal low gets to out latitude. I would go 3-6 on the coast and go from their dependent on how the RAP and HRRR look overnight with the change over and rates during the day tomorrow.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 23
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:52 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Be wary of using QPF to translate into snowfall. Coastal areas especially might lose a significant percentage of it for cooling the surface. .75 QPF might be 3-6 inches....1.0 QPF might be 5-8 inches...
I agree Ace with temps being warm but even if .25 is rain it's still a good hit for us
More like .25 QPF as R, .25 QPF used as S to cool the surface, than .25 QPF as grassy accumulations, then .25 QPF as full on accumulating snow on all surfaces. It really depends on the forcing that actually shows up and rates as the coastal low gets to out latitude. I would go 3-6 on the coast and go from their dependent on how the RAP and HRRR look overnight with the change over and rates during the day tomorrow.
Thanks Ace
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:01 pm

18z NAM
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020418&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=016
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:04 pm

Totals
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=027
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:04 pm

NAM not as impressed.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:05 pm

ALERT STORM MODE!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
00Z
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Eps_sn10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Eps_sn11


The trend cont on the 12Z Euro Ens:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Eps_sn12
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Eps_sn13

The Mean:

00Z
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Eps_sn16

12Z
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Eps_sn17

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6851
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:07 pm

SREF loop, not bad
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:09 pm

I'm going to be honest no one I have talked to even my job doesn't but it
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:09 pm

Wow huge jump on Euro, many of those have me in 5 some in 10+, I understand could be a portion rain, wxbell doesn't account for rain In those maps.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:09 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest no one I have talked to even my job doesn't but it

Well who do you think will have egg on their face come tomorrow?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:10 pm



5 members showing 6+ out here, many others close too it, and not a single advisory, hmm. None now show a total miss out here.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:12 pm

MT HOLLY JUST WENT FOR IT on their updated snow map.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2738
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge jump on Euro, many of those have me in 5 some in 10+, I understand could be a portion rain, wxbell doesn't account for rain In those maps.

What? Shouls be able to distinguish rain, does make a mistake with ZR and sleet though.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest no one I have talked to even my job doesn't but it

Well who do you think will have egg on their face come tomorrow?
They will jman like always. I only tell my job because we plow and salt they did nothing.lol
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:18 pm

And thank GOD TWC caught on. elephant

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Image20
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2738
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:19 pm

Earlier 12z RGEM (18z not updated here yet) wow, could be a fast and hard hitting dynamic system where rain quickly goes to a few hours of moderate to heavy snow and drops a few surprise issues and makes hell out of tomorrows commute. What I was afraid of happening.
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Snow map
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020412/gem_asnow_neus_7.png

Sorry if im reposting a lot but this came quite a way since I fell asleep at 4am


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:28 pm

12z GFS six panel
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html#picture

.6" QPF out here?!? wow
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:31 pm

HRRR Fri 4am
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280466
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:35 pm

RAP at 18, storm still ongoing at this time
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280465
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:40 pm

NWS upton updated at 3:29 not buying it. Has less than a inch and in local forecast slight chance snow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:42 pm

wwa just went up for most of NJ
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Okx
upton is very slow


Last edited by algae888 on Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by bloc1357 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:42 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:NWS upton updated at 3:29 not buying it.  Has less than a inch and in local forecast slight chance snow.

That time stamp is 3:29 AM

bloc1357

Posts : 311
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2013-03-05
Age : 44
Location : West Babylon, NY - 11704

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:43 pm

Neither is TWC for NYC anyways, I hope Frank is right along with the SR models.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 10 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 10 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum