Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
12z NAM improves again, baby steps
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrf48.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrf48.html
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
TOM,
BRING ON HERE HOME MAN - AWESOME JOB - YOU ARE LOCKED IN WITH THIS ONE!!
SREFS!!!! TICKING NW!! NYC, LI AND COASTAL NJ SO FAR
BRING ON HERE HOME MAN - AWESOME JOB - YOU ARE LOCKED IN WITH THIS ONE!!
SREFS!!!! TICKING NW!! NYC, LI AND COASTAL NJ SO FAR
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
12z RGEM for Friday morning
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Models trending much sharper with the trough and vort and GFS showing more consolidated low and "comma head" of RH completely absent from previous runs. Very good trend to see! 12z GFS hr 48
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avn48.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avn48.html
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Sanchize06 wrote:12z RGEM for Friday morning
It wont take much more of a shift west/ sharper trough and stronger s/w to get us in the goods with this setup. Only concern is HP in the west pushing things off to the east too quickly but its not incredibly strong, no worry of suppression from the north.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Edit 1034 is moderately strong but timing and capturing can still change.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
If this were to somehow impact Morris and eastern Passaic counties in NJ....any idea on timing?
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
This is as far west as GFS goes
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
I can actually see this being rain or a mix on Long Island then maybe going over to snow. Timing is after Midnight late Thursday through 10am Friday.
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
12z Ukie, wow
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280210
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280210
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Oh I think thats 0z, precip for 12z not available yet but looks good, 1008 low near BM.
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
12z Ukie precipitation, quite robust, 3-4 frames of precip in the area
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Ride th EURO WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
THOMAS BRININ' HER HOME - WOO HOOOO!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this
BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT
NJWF WWE STYLE!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Mugs you out of your mind!lol you and Scott did have this but Tom is the one who made it Trend west. The Atlantic is becoming very blocky with a big ridge in the central Atlantic. with all the short waves bombing out it really could set us up good for next week.amugs wrote:algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this
BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT
NJWF WWE STYLE!!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
If the euro and ukie verify the eastern half of Long Island will have warning criteria snows
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Temps are in the upper 30s to low 40s on the EURO. Really not sure how this would play out
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Frank these are the soundings on the euro for New York CityFrank_Wx wrote:Temps are in the upper 30s to low 40s on the EURO. Really not sure how this would play out
Hour 48 @ KNYC
850 - 7
925 - 4
BL 33
.25 KNYC
.4 CNJ/CLLI .6 E LI
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
algae888 wrote:Mugs you out of your mind!lol you and Scott did have this but Tom is the one who made it Trend west. The Atlantic is becoming very blocky with a big ridge in the central Atlantic. with all the short waves bombing out it really could set us up good for next week.amugs wrote:algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this
BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT
NJWF WWE STYLE!!
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
amugs wrote:
THOMAS BRININ' HER HOME - WOO HOOOO!!
Good trends so far, keep it coming! 18z suite rolling soon.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
sroc4 wrote:algae888 wrote:Mugs you out of your mind!lol you and Scott did have this but Tom is the one who made it Trend west. The Atlantic is becoming very blocky with a big ridge in the central Atlantic. with all the short waves bombing out it really could set us up good for next week.amugs wrote:algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this
BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT
NJWF WWE STYLE!!
Gentlemen,
Its time this got really old school. its gonna be a three man tag Texas Death Match.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
amugs wrote:algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this
BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT
NJWF WWE STYLE!!
Mugs I think its time we join forces. I think its time that Hacksaw The SRoc Duggan, Mugs the Animal Steele, and the newly acquired Tom The Super Fly Snuka form a fearsome threesome and lead the charge on this Feb 5th system. It will be us against all the nae sayers. Bring it!! I love the trends!! (make sure to read all the way to the bottom...there is actual analysis)
And to not completely ruin this thread as it is mostly banter above I will provide some actual analysis. This is based on the Euro verbatim. So hrs 48-54 is when the bulk of the precip moves in: Fast and furious.
Verbatim surface temps are crashing and are between 32-35* during these time frames:
Dew Points are plenty below freezing which would crash the surface temps further during heavier precip: Also notice dew points are decreasing with time. This screams dynamic cooling.
850''s and 925's are perfect for snow growth:
To add to the drama this set up reminds me a lot of March last year. Weak waves of LP developing along a stalled frontal boundary. Anomalously warm SST and temperatures crashing behind the front screams baroclinically driven enhanced vertical motion. Eastern sections could very well verify similar to what the Euro just showed IF, and that's a big fat IF these trends cont.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Great analysis here SROC and yes LET'S TAG TEAM THIS ONE AND GET 'ER DONE!! I LOVE THE TASTE OF TURNBUCKLE YUM YUM!!
GOOD JUJU HERE - WE GET THIS ONE THEN HE SHALL COME!! MUGS 1:6
Stealin' a line from the greatest father's Day movie of all time IMB - Field of Dreams - Build it and he will come but !!
GOOD JUJU HERE - WE GET THIS ONE THEN HE SHALL COME!! MUGS 1:6
Stealin' a line from the greatest father's Day movie of all time IMB - Field of Dreams - Build it and he will come but !!
_________________
Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
15z SREF, some nicely amped
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
SREF HOLDING STEADY ON SV
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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