NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Page 2 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Sanchize06 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:48 am

12z RGEM for Friday morning

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:14 am

Models trending much sharper with the trough and vort and GFS showing more consolidated low and "comma head" of RH completely absent from previous runs. Very good trend to see! 12z GFS hr 48

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avn48.html
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:24 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:12z RGEM for Friday morning

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16

It wont take much more of a shift west/ sharper trough and stronger s/w to get us in the goods with this setup. Only concern is HP in the west pushing things off to the east too quickly but its not incredibly strong, no worry of suppression from the north.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:27 am

Edit 1034 is moderately strong but timing and capturing can still change.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by sabamfa Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:30 am

If this were to somehow impact Morris and eastern Passaic counties in NJ....any idea on timing?

sabamfa
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 236
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-11-05
Age : 34
Location : Wayne, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:36 am

This is as far west as GFS goes

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:37 am

I can actually see this being rain or a mix on Long Island then maybe going over to snow. Timing is after Midnight late Thursday through 10am Friday.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:40 am

12z Ukie, wow

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280210
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:46 am

Oh I think thats 0z, precip for 12z not available yet but looks good, 1008 low near BM.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:59 am

12z Ukie precipitation, quite robust, 3-4 frames of precip in the area

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:02 pm

I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:11 pm

Ride th EURO WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f48

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:11 pm

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f51

THOMAS BRININ' HER HOME - WOO HOOOO!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:12 pm

@algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this

BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT

NJWF WWE STYLE!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:29 pm

@amugs wrote:
@algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this

BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT

NJWF WWE STYLE!!
Mugs you out of your mind!lol you and Scott did have this but Tom is the one who made it Trend west. The Atlantic is becoming very blocky with a big ridge in the central Atlantic. with all the short waves bombing out it really could set us up good for next week.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:31 pm

If the euro and ukie verify the eastern half of Long Island will have warning criteria snows
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:34 pm

Temps are in the upper 30s to low 40s on the EURO. Really not sure how this would play out

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Temps are in the upper 30s to low 40s on the EURO. Really not sure how this would play out
Frank these are the soundings on the euro for New York City
Hour 48 @ KNYC 

850 - 7

925 - 4

BL 33 
 .25 KNYC
 

.4 CNJ/CLLI  .6 E LI

algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:58 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this

BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT

NJWF WWE STYLE!!
Mugs you out of your mind!lol you and Scott did have this but Tom is the one who made it Trend west. The Atlantic is becoming very blocky with a big ridge in the central Atlantic. with all the short waves bombing out it really could set us up good for next week.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Frabz-Tough-crowd-no-respect-dbff09

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:13 pm

@amugs wrote:Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f51

THOMAS BRININ' HER HOME - WOO HOOOO!!

Good trends so far, keep it coming! 18z suite rolling soon.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Grselig Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:15 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this

BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT

NJWF WWE STYLE!!
Mugs you out of your mind!lol you and Scott did have this but Tom is the one who made it Trend west. The Atlantic is becoming very blocky with a big ridge in the central Atlantic. with all the short waves bombing out it really could set us up good for next week.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Frabz-Tough-crowd-no-respect-dbff09

Gentlemen,
Its time this got really old school. its gonna be a three man tag Texas Death Match.
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 D4a9b7f6040925a371800230b592e19e
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1328
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:24 pm

@amugs wrote:
@algae888 wrote:I'm hearing euro is further west 1-3, 2-4 type deal for a New York City and Long Island. Wow great job nj with not giving up on this

BS SROC AND I HAD THIS WEEK AGO - WE ARE WRESTLING TONIGHT

NJWF WWE STYLE!!

Mugs I think its time we join forces.  I think its time that Hacksaw The SRoc Duggan, Mugs the Animal Steele, and the newly acquired Tom The Super Fly Snuka form a fearsome threesome and lead the charge on this Feb 5th system.  It will be us against all the nae sayers.  Bring it!!  I love the trends!! (make sure to read all the way to the bottom...there is actual analysis)

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 8504d2dde007f725a8f76c49403b5b56
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 4Steele8_display_image
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Jimmy-Superfly-Snuka-Fighting

And to not completely ruin this thread as it is mostly banter above I will provide some actual analysis.  This is based on the Euro verbatim.  So hrs 48-54 is when the bulk of the precip moves in: Fast and furious.  

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_12
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_69

Verbatim surface temps are crashing and are between 32-35* during these time frames:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_70
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_71

Dew Points are plenty below freezing which would crash the surface temps further during heavier precip:  Also notice dew points are decreasing with time.  This screams dynamic cooling.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_72
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_73

850''s and 925's are perfect for snow growth:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_74
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_75

To add to the drama this set up reminds me a lot of March last year.  Weak waves of LP developing along a stalled frontal boundary.  Anomalously warm SST and temperatures crashing behind the front screams baroclinically driven enhanced vertical motion.  Eastern sections could very well verify similar to what the Euro just showed IF, and that's a big fat IF these trends cont.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Ecmwf_13

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:02 pm

Great analysis here SROC and yes LET'S TAG TEAM THIS ONE AND GET 'ER DONE!! I LOVE THE TASTE OF TURNBUCKLE YUM YUM!!

GOOD JUJU HERE - WE GET THIS ONE THEN HE SHALL COME!! MUGS 1:6

Stealin' a line from the greatest father's Day movie of all time IMB - Field of Dreams - Build it and he will come   Sad  but  Very Happy  cheers  cheers  cheers !!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:09 pm

15z SREF, some nicely amped

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:17 pm

SREF HOLDING STEADY ON SV

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 2 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum