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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:41 pm

The latest GFS has 1.00 qpf for NYC

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:45 pm

18z GFS precipitation
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280482
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:45 pm

Pushing the 1.00 line out by me, wow...
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:46 pm

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f18

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f21

CAN U SAY NW TREND MADONNE!!

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:46 pm

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f24

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:48 pm

Been trending to a deeper and more consolidated LP system riding along that sharper trough..
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020418&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=021
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:51 pm

18z RGEM snow map, 4" line by me, 6" near the city

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020418/rgem_asnow_neus_11.png
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:53 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning.  People are going to be very shocked by this system.  I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much  

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Hrrr_r10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Hrrr_t11
I feel its extremely dependent on precipitation intensity. Also, looking at the RAP/HRRR, if the changeover occurs prior to sunrise, surface temperatures will have the ability to cooler easier without any incoming solar radiation, lessening wasted QPF. A 5am changeover is more favorable rather than a 7am changeover

Great Points. I believe sunrise is around 7am. I am pretty confident based on what Im seeing that the changeover happens before that for most areas. Its going to be a great now cast

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:58 pm

Is it safe to say changeover between 4-6 am for my area dinner north you go.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:59 pm

And is this rain that's going on now part of the same system
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:01 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning.  People are going to be very shocked by this system.  I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much  

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Hrrr_r10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Hrrr_t11
I feel its extremely dependent on precipitation intensity. Also, looking at the RAP/HRRR, if the changeover occurs prior to sunrise, surface temperatures will have the ability to cooler easier without any incoming solar radiation, lessening wasted QPF. A 5am changeover is more favorable rather than a 7am changeover

Great Points.  I believe sunrise is around 7am.  I am pretty confident based on what Im seeing that the changeover happens before that for most areas.  Its going to be a great now cast

Latest HRRR for around 2am tonight

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280481
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:03 pm

rgem 18z and gfs 18z...
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Rgem_asnow_neus_9
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Gfs_asnow_neus_7
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:03 pm

The changeover will take place from 2am to 4am from west to east. 3am around NYC

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:11 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:And is this rain that's going on now part of the same system

This rain is  rain via the frontal boundary.  The LP center is just starting to develop along the same boundary but way down south.  As the LP approaches it will enhance the movement of the cold air into the area

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Usa_None_anim
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 Pmsl

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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:14 pm

do you think the roads will be wet or snow coverd because its been warm for couple days

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:26 pm

My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:27 pm

21z RAP QPF
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=21&fhour=18&parameter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:30 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 CaZ1UuwUYAArt5F

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:34 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 CaZ1UuwUYAArt5F
May need to shift each of those to the left. With the city and LI being 6-8" possible if these trends continue.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:39 pm

Frontal boundary hanging back and GOM moisture pumping

http://climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:44 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 CaZ1UuwUYAArt5F
May need to shift each of those to the left. With the city and LI being 6-8" possible if these trends continue.

Yeah I am going to update my snow map when I get home from work. I have to expand my 3-6 west. I like his 3-6" zone I just may add the 6-8 out east.  No sure yet.  Worried the changeover lower ratio factor may come into play.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:48 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:My concern is school tom morning..Lee Goldberg has us in the 3-6 range, but wonder if they see rain to start if they will call the day...

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 12 CaZ1UuwUYAArt5F
May need to shift each of those to the left. With the city and LI being 6-8" possible if these trends continue.

Yeah I am going to update my snow map when I get home from work. I have to expand my 3-6 west. I like his 3-6" zone I just may add the 6-8 out east.  No sure yet.  Worried the changeover lower ratio factor may come into play.

I think the changeover lower factor ratio is more of a factor SE of 95, most models show precip as snow by 1am ish in my neck of the woods and it could take quite a few more hours for the line to sag south and east to reach the coast. Overall the enhanced qpf will make up for it there but the latest models bringing nearly 1" into my area enhances totals NW as well.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:49 pm

this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
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Post by crippo84 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:53 pm

Any thoughts on a 1:30 flight tomorrow afternoon? Serious impacts to air travel?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:57 pm

@algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
I know exactly who your talking about lol
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