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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:57 pm

@algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:00 pm

Is their any chance coastal no gets over 6 I ask because some models showing a lot of qpf
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:03 pm

18z GFS 6 panel and surface temps/winds

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html#picture
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:54 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.


I was actually going to call on Tom for this question as he is def the guy that knows about the dynamics of thunderstorms.  I am not as educated on this subject although I know some basics.  IE: you need rapidly rising air.  There is no doubt VV will be high during the peak QPF.  I also noticed the helicity values on the 4Km NAM are quite high over LI, so I would not rule it out.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 Hires_10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 Hires_11

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:27 pm

23z RAP precipitation, nudged west again

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=23&fhour=17¶meter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:32 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.


I was actually going to call on Tom for this question as he is def the guy that knows about the dynamics of thunderstorms.  I am not as educated on this subject although I know some basics.  IE: you need rapidly rising air.  There is no doubt VV will be high during the peak QPF.  I also noticed the helicity values on the 4Km NAM are quite high over LI, so I would not rule it out.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 Hires_10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 Hires_11
There's virtually no CAPE or lifting going on with this system and that is what you need to produce large building thunderheads and unstable thunderstorms. There is a high streak of shear and a time where helicity values are raised as you mention but often this isnt enough to produce thunderstorms, heavy precip, yes but not quite thunderheads. Not going to rule it out completely but id say its unlikely.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:16 pm

GEM-LAM is sharper with NW cutoffs


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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 Hrdps_qpf_boston_49

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:16 pm

Latest SREFS

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 SREFNE24Precip21030

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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:25 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.


I was actually going to call on Tom for this question as he is def the guy that knows about the dynamics of thunderstorms.  I am not as educated on this subject although I know some basics.  IE: you need rapidly rising air.  There is no doubt VV will be high during the peak QPF.  I also noticed the helicity values on the 4Km NAM are quite high over LI, so I would not rule it out.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 Hires_10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 Hires_11
Thunder snow is often seen with High MUCAPE and MULI(general instability parameters). Forcing is also important(and is seen in this system by our thermal gradient.) If enough instability is present in the heavier convection it is certainly possible with this set up; though i would expect it stays offshore

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:27 pm

SREFS did tick east in their latest run. It mainly effects those N&W of NYC. NYC on east is the same.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f15

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f18

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 13 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

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