Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
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SoulSingMG
track17
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skinsfan1177
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NjWeatherGuy
30 posters
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Page 13 of 13 • 1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Any thoughts on a 1:30 flight tomorrow afternoon? Serious impacts to air travel?
crippo84- Posts : 383
Join date : 2013-11-07
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
I know exactly who your talking about lolalgae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Is their any chance coastal no gets over 6 I ask because some models showing a lot of qpf
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
18z GFS 6 panel and surface temps/winds
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html#picture
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html#picture
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
I was actually going to call on Tom for this question as he is def the guy that knows about the dynamics of thunderstorms. I am not as educated on this subject although I know some basics. IE: you need rapidly rising air. There is no doubt VV will be high during the peak QPF. I also noticed the helicity values on the 4Km NAM are quite high over LI, so I would not rule it out.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
23z RAP precipitation, nudged west again
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=23&fhour=17¶meter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=23&fhour=17¶meter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
There's virtually no CAPE or lifting going on with this system and that is what you need to produce large building thunderheads and unstable thunderstorms. There is a high streak of shear and a time where helicity values are raised as you mention but often this isnt enough to produce thunderstorms, heavy precip, yes but not quite thunderheads. Not going to rule it out completely but id say its unlikely.sroc4 wrote:NjWeatherGuy wrote:Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
I was actually going to call on Tom for this question as he is def the guy that knows about the dynamics of thunderstorms. I am not as educated on this subject although I know some basics. IE: you need rapidly rising air. There is no doubt VV will be high during the peak QPF. I also noticed the helicity values on the 4Km NAM are quite high over LI, so I would not rule it out.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
GEM-LAM is sharper with NW cutoffs
Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize
Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Latest SREFS
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Thunder snow is often seen with High MUCAPE and MULI(general instability parameters). Forcing is also important(and is seen in this system by our thermal gradient.) If enough instability is present in the heavier convection it is certainly possible with this set up; though i would expect it stays offshoresroc4 wrote:NjWeatherGuy wrote:Havent seen it since 2014 with the strong low the bombed out right off our coast and snow to lull to thunderstorm and thundersnow. Usually with strong LPs and this one is weak, unlikely IMO.algae888 wrote:this from a pretty good met on another board. he always tells it like it is. gets under peoples skin sometimes but never hypes anything.
"there is an unstable layer on gfs bufkit. i think we get thunder snow"
that would be great!!! scott and frank what are you're thoughts on this?
I was actually going to call on Tom for this question as he is def the guy that knows about the dynamics of thunderstorms. I am not as educated on this subject although I know some basics. IE: you need rapidly rising air. There is no doubt VV will be high during the peak QPF. I also noticed the helicity values on the 4Km NAM are quite high over LI, so I would not rule it out.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
SREFS did tick east in their latest run. It mainly effects those N&W of NYC. NYC on east is the same.
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