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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

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Post by jake732 Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:30 pm

im just wondering y bernie rayno only has a threaT FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS FRIDAY ? according to the short range coastal can also grap a few inches. AM I WRONG????
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:42 pm

This threat just showed up on mu WU weekly forecast.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:03 pm

@jake732 wrote:im just wondering y bernie rayno only has a threaT FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS FRIDAY ? according to the short range coastal can also grap a few inches. AM I WRONG????

No not wrong Jake. Someone like Bernie who is in the public eye esp dont want to flip and flop with the models. Plus he may be 100% right. Models are showing a western trend, but it doesnt mean the final outcome ends up that way. He will make his adjustment by tomorrow if the trends cont. Remember for the Jan 23rd storm he did not change until last minute either. Its not a bad thing to hold firm to a forecast. I respect it tremendously. He knows a heck of alot more than me. Even though he didnt change his snow totals until late for the Jan 23rd, in his videos he kept explaining and acknowleding where and how the trend N and west could happen. I have not seen his latest video so not sure if he mentions the possibilty of a further west trend or not.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:08 pm

I heard on 1010 wins tom night rain  changing to wet snow by Friday morning then  ending by the morning with a coating maybe an inch on grassy area

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:21 pm

Lee Goldberg just said could be a snow chance thru. Into Fri morning commute some might have a couple of inches east of city..he will discuss later in the program
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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:23 pm

NWS Upton for Thursday Night-Friday
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Stormt10
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:33 pm

18z rgem....
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:35 pm

@aiannone wrote:NWS Upton for Thursday Night-Friday
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Stormt10

We miss you down here buddy. I hope Binghamton is treating you well.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:40 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:NWS Upton for Thursday Night-Friday
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Stormt10

We miss you down here buddy.  I hope Binghamton is treating you well.  

Academically? Yes. Weather wise? NO!! lol. Dry and not even a trace of snow up here.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:51 pm

Close but no cigar on GFS and NAM.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:51 pm

18Z RGEM better for Friday am:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

12z:
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:58 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Close but no cigar on GFS and NAM.
yea gfs and nam are a tad east at 18z. almost all international guidance has some snow for us not US models though.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:06 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Close but no cigar on GFS and NAM.
yea gfs and nam are a tad east at 18z. almost all international guidance has some snow for us not US models though.

Last March the rgem/euro did great with these set ups. We'll see how she unfolds.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:11 pm

ukie:
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:ukie:
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

Frame before = better
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:21 pm

@sroc4 wrote:18Z RGEM better for Friday am:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

12z:
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

Its trying but im worried its gonna hit a brick wall and not go any more west. Will take any mood flakes I can get but would be nice to get a bit of an accumulation.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:28 pm

12z GEFS
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html#picture
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:44 pm

nws disco...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.


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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 6:14 pm

@algae888 wrote:nws disco...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF NYC ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE AND BECOMING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST THU NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES COOL AND LIGHT
RAIN..QUICKLY MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW.

BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THE MOST LIKELY FCST...1-3 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC.

THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER WEST COULD RESULT IN UP TO 3-6
INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WITH HIGH IMPACT DURING
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...A DUSTING OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OR NO SNOW.

STAY TUNED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.



Al I was scrolling through and just realized you posted the 18zrgem about 20 mins before I did. My bad.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 03, 2016 6:46 pm

Np scott great to have storms to track.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 6:58 pm

Here is the link to bernies latest video. Great video. Outlines everything very nicely for this Friday. And goes into next week as well.
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/stormy-week-ahead-snow-threat-

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:25 pm

21z SREF, mood flakes about sums it up, if at all, trends seem to hit a brick wall 18z today. Hmph.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:29 pm

For Friday, the 21Z SREFs have a mean of 0.93" of snow but a median of 0.005" of snow.  Five of the 26 plumes have over one inch of snow.  Of those five, the snow totals for LaGuardia Airport are: 1.32", 2.12", 3.28", 5.35", and.....10.58"(!).  Of course, 13 of the 26 plumes show NO snow for LGA for Friday.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:30 pm

500mb vort is just a little too fast and whole flow is too progressive. As Frank and RB said (paraphrasing) it doesnt have enough time before the HP forces it out to sea. Overall I dont think itll be a complete non event for everyone, but not a major accumulation for most of us either. Thinking right now possibility of light accums SE of 95 and flakes flying in most of the state possible (NJ) as well as extreme SEPA and SENY.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:34 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:For Friday, the 21Z SREFs have a mean of 0.93" of snow but a median of 0.005" of snow.  Five of the 26 plumes have over one inch of snow.  Of those five, the snow totals for LaGuardia Airport are: 1.32", 2.12", 3.28", 5.35", and.....10.58"(!).  Of course, 13 of the 26 plumes show NO snow for LGA for Friday.

NMB3 and ARW4, me likey!
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