HomeBlog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
Page 4 of 13
Page 4 of 13 • 
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11, 12, 13
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:08 pm
" />
I know not many care about the friday threat because most live west of NYC, but us eastenders stand to measure something. 12Z Euro Ens cont to trend. Now Zero members have a miss on LI.
The Mean:
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6852
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:11 pm
RGEM a tick west again!!
FROM A MET
The thing I think people are missing is the energy rounding the base of the trough and upper level jet. It argues for better lift further NW and also the wave to buckle the front further NW as well. I am not saying that its going to be a full on warning level snow, but i can see there being a little more than whats being shown now. And with heavier precip rates, the boundary layer will improve.
FROM A MET
The thing I think people are missing is the energy rounding the base of the trough and upper level jet. It argues for better lift further NW and also the wave to buckle the front further NW as well. I am not saying that its going to be a full on warning level snow, but i can see there being a little more than whats being shown now. And with heavier precip rates, the boundary layer will improve.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12067
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:19 pm
@amugs wrote:RGEM a tick west again!!
FROM A MET
The thing I think people are missing is the energy rounding the base of the trough and upper level jet. It argues for better lift further NW and also the wave to buckle the front further NW as well. I am not saying that its going to be a full on warning level snow, but i can see there being a little more than whats being shown now. And with heavier precip rates, the boundary layer will improve.
Yes sir. Rgem/Euro OP/EPS vs the rest:
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6852
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:31 pm
RGEM cont to trend better and better along with the euro package.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6852
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by Math23x7 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:51 pm
Interestingly enough, the surface temperatures are in the 32-33 degree range for NYC on the RGEM...
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2285
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by Math23x7 Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:27 pm
The 0Z GFS just came out and shows some light snow as well but it pretty much hits a brick wall once it gets just N&W of NYC. And to get several inches of snow, you would need to go out to eastern LI. Also, it shows temperatures in the mid-30s during the snow event. It'll be interesting to see how this sets up the storm potential for next week which Frank spoke about in his blog.
PS. This is my 1,000th post!
PS. This is my 1,000th post!
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2285
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:15 am
GFS looked a bit better too and more robust on NW side. Perhaps still ticking in the right direction.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:15 am
6z NAM hr 31
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020406&time=6&var=APCPI&hour=031
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020406&time=6&var=APCPI&hour=031
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:20 am
hr 36...
4k nam...
I would say 1-3" for cpk and 4-6" c/s nj and most of LI
4k nam...
I would say 1-3" for cpk and 4-6" c/s nj and most of LI
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:33 am
the latest srefs are much jucier for nyc area. high end bust potential...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:40 am
upton...
either they think rain cuts down totals or they haven't looked at the latest data.
high end map. still feel this is to low.
either they think rain cuts down totals or they haven't looked at the latest data.
high end map. still feel this is to low.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:02 am
3z SREFs!
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:19 am
Wow al she goes BM there
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:23 am
it's al nj. I think mugs is sleeping dreaming of what the rgem just showed.lol some one will be in for a big surprise. I guess we were focused on the wrong storm. this one may get to warning levels for nyc metro s and e.@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Wow mugs she goes BM there
edit: I just saw you changed name.lol I know it's really early! good to be tracking our second storm this winter
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:25 am
@algae888 wrote:it's al nj. I think mugs is sleeping dreaming of what the rgem just showed.lol some one will be in for a big surprise. I guess we were focused on the wrong storm. this one may get to warning levels for nyc metro s and e.@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Wow mugs she goes BM there
Caught it, i need sleep, been up for nearly 24 now and gonna get some rest before work later today...
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:51 am
gfs west too!!!
that's 2-5" nyc east. more east.
must be mixing issues as qpf is .75 to1" for c/nj and LI.
that's 2-5" nyc east. more east.
must be mixing issues as qpf is .75 to1" for c/nj and LI.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:56 am
Omg beat me to it! Thought I was the only one up! Unbelievable how this has trended....
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4349
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:00 am
Nam has some snow for NNJ but hardly any accumulation, more east
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4349
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:44 am
Temps are marginal maybe wet snow at best
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:49 am
Yep skins, 51° here
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4349
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:58 am
So this has become a lot more interesting it appears. 06z GFS are well west to agree with RGEM and SREFS. It's a rain to snow scenario for most.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx- Godzilla Seeker
- Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ -
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:02 am
From what I can see the upper level trough is not stringing out nearly as much as models originally intended. It's formidable which allows a wave of low pressure to develop along the Arctic front. With the trough slightly negative precip is able to extend far west. 12z runs should be interesting today. This could be a 3-6" event for LI but I want to see another set of model runs to get an idea of temps and timing of the snow. If it falls during the day it could be a problem even though all layers are crashing.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx- Godzilla Seeker
- Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ -
Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)
by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:48 am
My confidence is high in this type of set up when the RGEM, Euro, UKIE agree with each other, this morning and overnight CMC, GFS, and NAM have trended towards the RGEM/Euro/EPS/UKIE. The one thing that is always difficult even for SR models to pick up on is exactly how the dynamics of this type of set up play out. Its almost impossible for models to "see" the dynamics play out accurately because the frames are spread out by 3-6hrs on the medium range models, and only 1-3hrs on the SR models. Even an hr can be too much time for models to accurately predict the timing of dynamic cooling and crashing temps at the diff levels which looks to be the case with this set up. Alot can change in reality that the model may miss in the frame to frame images. Eastern sections did extremely well with this sort of set up last year in March. "Surprise" snowfall totals are def possible with this set up.
Vertical velocities look to be quite high esp east of NYC leading to an enhanced area of vertical motion. The baroclinic zone between cold air rushing in and the warm ocean temps in part drives this. For this reason I think there could be an area where heavy banding sets up enhancing snowfall rates and totals. Further shifts NW or SE are possible.
Vertical velocities look to be quite high esp east of NYC leading to an enhanced area of vertical motion. The baroclinic zone between cold air rushing in and the warm ocean temps in part drives this. For this reason I think there could be an area where heavy banding sets up enhancing snowfall rates and totals. Further shifts NW or SE are possible.
Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:42 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6852
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Page 4 of 13 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11, 12, 13
Page 4 of 13
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum|
|
|