Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

@sroc4 wrote: Valid 00z Feb 1st:


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To this 00z Feb 2nd:




To now this 00Feb 3rd:

I know not many care about the friday threat because most live west of NYC, but us eastenders stand to measure something. 12Z Euro Ens cont to trend. Now Zero members have a miss on LI.



The Mean:

RGEM a tick west again!!



FROM A MET

The thing I think people are missing is the energy rounding the base of the trough and upper level jet. It argues for better lift further NW and also the wave to buckle the front further NW as well. I am not saying that its going to be a full on warning level snow, but i can see there being a little more than whats being shown now. And with heavier precip rates, the boundary layer will improve.

@amugs wrote:RGEM a tick west again!!



FROM A MET

The thing I think people are missing is the energy rounding the base of the trough and upper level jet.  It argues for better lift further NW and also the wave to buckle the front further NW as well.  I am not saying that its going to be a full on warning level snow, but i can see there being a little more than whats being shown now. And with heavier precip rates, the boundary layer will improve.

Yes sir.  Rgem/Euro OP/EPS vs the rest:

RGEM cont to trend better and better along with the euro package.

Interestingly enough, the surface temperatures are in the 32-33 degree range for NYC on the RGEM...

The 0Z GFS just came out and shows some light snow as well but it pretty much hits a brick wall once it gets just N&W of NYC.  And to get several inches of snow, you would need to go out to eastern LI.  Also, it shows temperatures in the mid-30s during the snow event.  It'll be interesting to see how this sets up the storm potential for next week which Frank spoke about in his blog.



PS. This is my 1,000th post! 

GFS looked a bit better too and more robust on NW side. Perhaps still ticking in the right direction.

6z NAM hr 31

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020406&time=6&var=APCPI&hour=031

hr 36...

4k nam...

I would say 1-3" for cpk and 4-6" c/s nj and most of LI

the latest srefs are much jucier for nyc area. high end bust potential...

upton...

either they think rain cuts down totals or they haven't looked at the latest data.

high end map. still feel this is to low.

3z SREFs!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture

rgem!!!!

WOW!!! rgem

Wow al she goes BM there

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Wow mugs she goes BM there

it's al nj. I think mugs is sleeping dreaming of what the rgem just showed.lol some one will be in for a big surprise.  I guess we were focused on the wrong storm. this one may get to warning levels for nyc metro s and e.
edit: I just saw you changed name.lol I know it's really early! good to be tracking our second storm this winter

@algae888 wrote:

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Wow mugs she goes BM there

it's al nj. I think mugs is sleeping dreaming of what the rgem just showed.lol some one will be in for a big surprise.  I guess we were focused on the wrong storm. this one may get to warning levels for nyc metro s and e.

Caught it, i need sleep, been up for nearly 24 now and gonna get some rest before work later today...

gfs west too!!!

that's 2-5" nyc east. more east.
must be mixing issues as qpf is .75 to1" for c/nj and LI.

Omg beat me to it! Thought I was the only one up! Unbelievable how this has trended....

Nam has some snow for NNJ but hardly any accumulation, more east

Temps are marginal maybe wet snow at best

Yep skins, 51° here

So this has become a lot more interesting it appears. 06z GFS are well west to agree with RGEM and SREFS. It's a rain to snow scenario for most. 

From what I can see the upper level trough is not stringing out nearly as much as models originally intended. It's formidable which allows a wave of low pressure to develop along the Arctic front. With the trough slightly negative precip is able to extend far west. 12z runs should be interesting today. This could be a 3-6" event for LI but I want to see another set of model runs to get an idea of temps and timing of the snow. If it falls during the day it could be a problem even though all layers are crashing.

My confidence is high in this type of set up when the RGEM, Euro, UKIE agree with each other, this morning and overnight CMC, GFS, and NAM have trended towards the RGEM/Euro/EPS/UKIE.  The one thing that is always difficult even for SR models to pick up on is exactly how the dynamics of this type of set up play out.  Its almost impossible for models to "see" the dynamics play out accurately because the frames are spread out by 3-6hrs on the medium range models, and only 1-3hrs on the SR models.  Even an hr can be too much time for models to accurately predict the timing of dynamic cooling and crashing temps at the diff levels which looks to be the case with this set up.  Alot can change in reality that the model may miss in the frame to frame images.  Eastern sections did extremely well with this sort of set up last year in March.  "Surprise" snowfall totals are def possible with this set up.  

Vertical velocities look to be quite high esp east of NYC leading to an enhanced area of vertical motion.  The baroclinic zone between cold air rushing in and the warm ocean temps in part drives this.  For this reason I think there could be an area where heavy banding sets up enhancing snowfall rates and totals.  Further shifts NW or SE are possible.