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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:08 pm

@sroc4 wrote: Valid 00z Feb 1st:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 <a href=Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn11" />

To this 00z Feb 2nd:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn12
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn13

To now this 00Feb 3rd:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn14
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn15



I know not many care about the friday threat because most live west of NYC, but us eastenders stand to measure something. 12Z Euro Ens cont to trend. Now Zero members have a miss on LI.
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn11

The Mean:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Eps_sn16

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:11 pm

RGEM a tick west again!!

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 56b2c0ad91093_0zrgem.png.6cabef9f083b2063bc7749ed7e029227

FROM A MET

The thing I think people are missing is the energy rounding the base of the trough and upper level jet. It argues for better lift further NW and also the wave to buckle the front further NW as well. I am not saying that its going to be a full on warning level snow, but i can see there being a little more than whats being shown now. And with heavier precip rates, the boundary layer will improve.

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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Empty Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:19 pm

@amugs wrote:RGEM a tick west again!!

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 56b2c0ad91093_0zrgem.png.6cabef9f083b2063bc7749ed7e029227

FROM A MET

The thing I think people are missing is the energy rounding the base of the trough and upper level jet.  It argues for better lift further NW and also the wave to buckle the front further NW as well.  I am not saying that its going to be a full on warning level snow, but i can see there being a little more than whats being shown now. And with heavier precip rates, the boundary layer will improve.

Yes sir.  Rgem/Euro OP/EPS vs the rest:

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:31 pm

RGEM cont to trend better and better along with the euro package.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:51 pm

Interestingly enough, the surface temperatures are in the 32-33 degree range for NYC on the RGEM...

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:27 pm

The 0Z GFS just came out and shows some light snow as well but it pretty much hits a brick wall once it gets just N&W of NYC.  And to get several inches of snow, you would need to go out to eastern LI.  Also, it shows temperatures in the mid-30s during the snow event.  It'll be interesting to see how this sets up the storm potential for next week which Frank spoke about in his blog.



PS. This is my 1,000th post!  party

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:15 am

GFS looked a bit better too and more robust on NW side. Perhaps still ticking in the right direction.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:15 am

6z NAM hr 31

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020406&time=6&var=APCPI&hour=031
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:20 am

hr 36...
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Nam_namer_036_precip_ptot
4k nam...
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Nam4km_asnow_us_11
I would say 1-3" for cpk and 4-6" c/s nj and most of LI
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:33 am

the latest srefs are much jucier for nyc area. high end bust potential...
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 F30
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:40 am

upton...
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 StormTotalSnowWeb1
either they think rain cuts down totals or they haven't looked at the latest data.
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 MaxSnowWeb
high end map. still feel this is to low.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:02 am

3z SREFs!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:05 am

rgem!!!!
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2016020406_027
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2016020406_028
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2016020406_029
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2016020406_030
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 I_nw_EST_2016020406_031
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:18 am

WOW!!! rgem
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Rgem_asnow_neus_12
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:19 am

Wow al she goes BM there
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:23 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Wow mugs she goes BM there
it's al nj. I think mugs is sleeping dreaming of what the rgem just showed.lol some one will be in for a big surprise.  I guess we were focused on the wrong storm. this one may get to warning levels for nyc metro s and e.
edit: I just saw you changed name.lol I know it's really early! good to be tracking our second storm this winter
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:25 am

@algae888 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Wow mugs she goes BM there
it's al nj. I think mugs is sleeping dreaming of what the rgem just showed.lol some one will be in for a big surprise.  I guess we were focused on the wrong storm. this one may get to warning levels for nyc metro s and e.

Caught it, i need sleep, been up for nearly 24 now and gonna get some rest before work later today...
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:51 am

gfs west too!!!
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_8
that's 2-5" nyc east. more east.
must be mixing issues as qpf is .75 to1" for c/nj and LI.
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Gfs_namer_042_precip_ptot
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:56 am

Omg beat me to it! Thought I was the only one up! Unbelievable how this has trended....

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:00 am

Nam has some snow for NNJ but hardly any accumulation, more east

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:44 am

Temps are marginal maybe wet snow at best
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:49 am

Yep skins, 51° here

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:58 am

So this has become a lot more interesting it appears. 06z GFS are well west to agree with RGEM and SREFS. It's a rain to snow scenario for most. 

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:02 am

From what I can see the upper level trough is not stringing out nearly as much as models originally intended. It's formidable which allows a wave of low pressure to develop along the Arctic front. With the trough slightly negative precip is able to extend far west. 12z runs should be interesting today. This could be a 3-6" event for LI but I want to see another set of model runs to get an idea of temps and timing of the snow. If it falls during the day it could be a problem even though all layers are crashing.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:48 am

My confidence is high in this type of set up when the RGEM, Euro, UKIE agree with each other, this morning and overnight CMC, GFS, and NAM have trended towards the RGEM/Euro/EPS/UKIE.  The one thing that is always difficult even for SR models to pick up on is exactly how the dynamics of this type of set up play out.  Its almost impossible for models to "see" the dynamics play out accurately because the frames are spread out by 3-6hrs on the medium range models, and only 1-3hrs on the SR models.  Even an hr can be too much time for models to accurately predict the timing of dynamic cooling and crashing temps at the diff levels which looks to be the case with this set up.  Alot can change in reality that the model may miss in the frame to frame images.  Eastern sections did extremely well with this sort of set up last year in March.  "Surprise" snowfall totals are def possible with this set up.  

Vertical velocities look to be quite high esp east of NYC leading to an enhanced area of vertical motion.  The baroclinic zone between cold air rushing in and the warm ocean temps in part drives this.  For this reason I think there could be an area where heavy banding sets up enhancing snowfall rates and totals.  Further shifts NW or SE are possible.    
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Nam_w710
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 4 Snow_m11


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:42 am; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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