February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
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Mathgod55
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35 posters
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Remember we still have some time left for this puppy though the window of this is shrinking with this winter trend never give up
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
amugs wrote:A 50-75 mile west shift will do us good - i think we can get it - positive juju
The frontogenesis factor is impressive. We don't need the dramatic shifts to get good snow into the area. Verbatim the NAM may be a 2-4" snowfall. We'll take it! With more to come on Tuesday we could see up to 6" by the end of the week. Let's see if NAM and SREFS and garner support from other models.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
No major changes on SREF, slightly less ballistic members
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html#picture
Feel that wave one closes and is pushed east initally by wave two, perhaps a scrape or moderate event for the coast/SNE (again) but the real threat is the combination of the energies, how strong they phase and where the IVT forms, thats just my opinion
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html#picture
Feel that wave one closes and is pushed east initally by wave two, perhaps a scrape or moderate event for the coast/SNE (again) but the real threat is the combination of the energies, how strong they phase and where the IVT forms, thats just my opinion
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Frank_Wx wrote:
Geez, this is water boarding type torture, so close to a monster and very little to show for it. If this could somehow take a 100 mile shift west, I know that's a lot to ask, we all get buried.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I'm going with a coating to 3 inches for the area right now minus eastern PA. A coating means you're at least seeing some snow showers while 3 inches means you're under heavier returns from the enhanced frontogenesis over the area. This is most likely from Jersey Shore to Long Island.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
this was 300 miles ots a few days ago - now we are looking at 50-75 miles trek west do put us in a warning criteria, 100 -150 to crush us - it can be done and has been before, why in the world did my wife invite friends over for the sb tomorrow??? CCB is 75 miles off the coast.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
A sub 980mb bomb east of the BM. WHY WHY WHY
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Look what the NAM does with wave 3
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
are u kidding me - look at this IVT??
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Inverted trough (wave 3) on the NAM is favored from CNJ-Jersey Coast-SNJ-Philly-DC
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Hi-res NAM for wave 2. Sorry for the back and forth.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
HI res says hi
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Inverted trough
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
NAM expands the IVT to this - wow!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
amugs wrote:HI res says hi
WOW!!!
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Closer look at wave 2 hour 57
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I'll stay with the C-3" forecast for now. This is ONLY for Monday. I may have a snow map late today.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
HI RES still on wave 2 giving HV and NNJ some mod snow here
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
This, once again, has the look of a HV screw job that has defined the winter up here. Strike 1, strike 2, strike 3. You're out!!
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
wave 2 still producing snow in hv and nnj HI RES nam
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Join date : 2013-01-07
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
hyde345 wrote:This, once again, has the look of a HV screw job that has defined the winter up here. Strike 1, strike 2, strike 3. You're out!!
hyde - wave 2 brings you some snow maybe moderaste since it throw a good amount of moisture back inland as it goes up the coast and Gulf of Maine.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Frank aren't inverted troughs tough to pinpoint this far out and they can shift hundreds of miles even a day before a storm
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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