February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

hyde345 wrote:This, once again, has the look of a HV screw job that has defined the winter up here. Strike 1, strike 2, strike 3. You're out!!

hyde - wave 2 brings you some snow maybe moderaste since it throw a good amount of moisture back inland as it goes up the coast and Gulf of Maine.

Frank aren't inverted troughs tough to pinpoint this far out and they can shift hundreds of miles even a day before a storm

Yes Al. Nearly impossible. But you can gauge where models are leaning. I feel most of them try to jackpot Philly Metro and SNJ.

Peeps,

This is a complex set up with these two waves - not enough spacing at this time but I think this could turn out to be a long duration of light to moderate snow for some areas. The IVT look the CCB's that the Hi RES NAM showed decaying all have me intrigued for a good snow event from Monday through Tuesday. The HI RES NAM shows a good thump even for our snow starved HV gang and the IVT over SNJ ands CNJ well good luck being the bulls this far out that sucker will shift and could end up over CP and DOC .

BREAKING NEWS RGEM JUST SHIFTED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE COAST STILL A WAYS TO 100 MILES GO FOR A CRUSH JOB BUT THIS IS A GOOD SIGN!!

@ FRANK I THINK WE CONFUSED THE HELL OUT OF FORUM MEMBERS HERE WITH THE NAM AND HI RES AS I LOOK BACK ON OUR POSTS TRYING TO GET AN IDEA OF BOTH STORMS - THIS IS NUTS MAY HAVE TO SEPARATE THREADS TO WAVE 1 AND WAVE 2 SO WE DON'T OVERLAP THEM - PEOPLE HEADS WILL BE SPINNING.

PS -pm me a few pics of the models yuo were with last night and this morning - give a 45 yr old a rush from the glory days!!

There is a norlun trough on every model.

Ughh Norluns are always such a headache

amugs wrote:Peeps,

This is a complex set up with these two waves - not enough spacing at this time but I think this could turn out to be a long duration of light to moderate snow for some areas.  The IVT look the CCB's that the Hi RES NAM showed decaying all have me intrigued for a good snow event from Monday through Tuesday. The HI RES NAM shows a good thump even for our snow starved HV gang and the IVT over SNJ ands CNJ well good luck being the bulls this far out that sucker will shift and could end up over CP and DOC .

BREAKING NEWS RGEM JUST SHIFTED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE COAST STILL A WAYS TO 100 MILES  GO FOR A CRUSH JOB BUT THIS IS A GOOD SIGN!!

RGEM pictures please.

hyde345 wrote:This, once again, has the look of a HV screw job that has defined the winter up here. Strike 1, strike 2, strike 3. You're out!!

hyde, I'm sick of these Miller B,Miller C, Norlon troughs etc etc etc.They have not produced the big snowstorm in our area.We need a huge Miller A like March '93 right out of the Gulf and up the coast positioned so City, Coast and LI get heavy rain and we get blasted with temps around 30 degrees.

Doc Hyde I think around the 15th 16th we may see one of those but not getting my hopes up this year.

jimv45 wrote:Doc Hyde I think around the 15th 16th we may see one of those but not getting my hopes up this year.

And how did I get dropped from this discussion? I'm a HV die hard longer than any of you.

I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow

algae888 wrote:Frank aren't inverted troughs tough to pinpoint this far out and they can shift hundreds of miles even a day before a storm

Yea, but its sort of a different setup, storm looks to produce a wide swath of light snow unlike most IVTs which are very small mesoscale events, problem will be figuring out where the heavier swath will set up

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jimv45 wrote:Doc Hyde I think around the 15th 16th we may see one of those but not getting my hopes up this year.

And how did I get dropped from this discussion? I'm a HV die hard longer than any of you.

Sorry, CP. It's a pretty depressing topic, the total lack of a Miller A Bomb , a HV Special, so I guess I left you out so as not to irrigate you.

Anyway, the Long Range crew here is on to something next week that could lift our spirits plus cold looks to come back again.

The GFS is a Godzilla Tuesday with the inverted trough over our area!!!!

Well, even though CP has mentioned we are way above normal temperature wise since Nov, there has been no lack of events for tracking with a busy period coming up!!!

GFS wants nothing to do with wave 2 like the NAM. It's only focused on wave 3 (tuesday). Snow map for wave 3 from GFS 

Snow for 24 hours too. 6-12 inches over 24 hours is manageable. It's a high ratio event too.

So I'm thinking a C-3" Monday (SREFS and NAM blend) and possibly another 4-8" Tuesday into early Wednesday.

sorry Cp didn't forget you just saw doc and hyde were chatting!!

Frank is this looking good for us Dutchess county snow starved people?

But again the HV is on the northern edge of things. I've seen this song and dance before where the models have me in the 2-4 range and I get nothing. Norluns are tricky and I'm worried about subsidence. Monday's storm tracks close enough to give points N and W nothing andit may screw things up and for Tuesday-Wednesday event. In HV I'm expecting periods of snow showers and light snow from Monday night thru Wednesday with only light accums.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow

I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.

Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow

I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.

Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.

I agree with you, the accuracy of modeling IVT's even 12-18 hours before the event I feel is +/-75 miles and intensity forecast quality is even lower. I specifically remember one from January 2014 which was modeled to far north and ended up over CNJ. Broad-brushing an area where it can likely to form, and give general accumulation amounts is a much better way to forecast these; and at least aware the public. Though I wouldn't say this one is exactly a true textbook IVT, more of a hybrid LP/IVT type deal with associated interaction with multiple centers.