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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 06, 2016 11:29 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow

I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.

Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 06, 2016 11:35 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow

I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.

Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.
I agree with you, the accuracy of modeling IVT's even 12-18 hours before the event I feel is +/-75 miles and intensity forecast quality is even lower. I specifically remember one from January 2014 which was modeled to far north and ended up over CNJ. Broad-brushing an area where it can likely to form, and give general accumulation amounts is a much better way to forecast these; and at least aware the public. Though I wouldn't say this one is exactly a true textbook IVT, more of a hybrid LP/IVT type deal with associated interaction with multiple centers.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 06, 2016 11:46 am

Quietace wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow

I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.

Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.
I agree with you, the accuracy of modeling IVT's even 12-18 hours before the event I feel is +/-75 miles and intensity forecast quality is even lower. I specifically remember one from January 2014 which was modeled to far north and ended up over CNJ. Broad-brushing an area where it can likely to form, and give general accumulation amounts is a much better way to forecast these; and at least aware the public. Though I wouldn't say this one is exactly a true textbook IVT, more of a hybrid LP/IVT type deal with associated interaction with multiple centers.
True Cp I was mentioning a particular run got me excited. I will say though with how it's been this year and years past Monmouth and ocean counties seem to be bullseye for so.e read on or another.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:20 pm

12z UKIE loves wave 3. Wants nothing to do with wave 2 

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 9 Pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:24 pm

I think there too many vorts coming along for the first wave to slow down and move up the coast and become captured. Think it goes OTS or scrapes SNE/coast and tail energy phases with clipper to form the miller B IVT, just my 2 cents.
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Post by snowday111 Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:49 pm

Can anyone clarify which days are we talking about for wave 1, wave 2 and wave 3. Thanks!

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:52 pm

Upton:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN OFFSHORE STORM MIGHT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE REGION APPEARS TO BE ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK FARTHER WEST.

A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BRING MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN TERMS OF FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:11 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I think there too many vorts coming along for the first wave to slow down and move up the coast and become captured. Think it goes OTS or scrapes SNE/coast and tail energy phases with clipper to form the miller B IVT, just my 2 cents.

Wave 1 was yesterday. Wave 2 is Monday and 3 is Tuesday. 

12z Euro shows zilch. Nada. Nothing. Ugly.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:31 pm

THE EURO - WTH ?? MY GOD EITHER IT IS ONTO SOMETHING OR IT IS OUT TO LUNCH AND HAS REALLY DIGRESSED BIG TIME.

WHAT A FRICKIN' QUAGMIRE AT THIS STAGE. HEADACHE CITY.


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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKIE loves wave 3. Wants nothing to do with wave 2 

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 9 Pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

FRANK IT HAS ALWAYS LOVE WAVE 3 - SINCE THURSDAY - HOPE IT VERIFIES AND IT HAS HAD THE HOT HAND - A SHAME TO SEE A BEAST OF A STORM GO OTS BUT IF HE IT CAN THE H OUT OF THE WAY AND ALLOW THE 3RD ONE TO BLOSSOM WE'LL TAKE IT.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:35 pm

amugs wrote:this was 300 miles ots a few days ago - now we are looking at 50-75 miles trek west do put us in a warning criteria, 100 -150 to crush us - it can be done and has been before, why in the world did my wife invite friends over for the sb tomorrow??? CCB is 75 miles off the coast.

Meet you at Cornerstone for the 12z's tomorrow??? drunken

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Post by Snow88 Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:39 pm

Euro has been atrocious this winter
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:44 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:this was 300 miles ots a few days ago - now we are looking at 50-75 miles trek west do put us in a warning criteria, 100 -150 to crush us - it can be done and has been before, why in the world did my wife invite friends over for the sb tomorrow??? CCB is 75 miles off the coast.

Meet you at Cornerstone for the 12z's tomorrow???   drunken

Maybe - I have 15 people coming over at 4 for SB, kids hockey at 10:30 in Westchester and need to pick up food from BJ's in Paramus on way home I will text you ok?

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:44 pm

Snow88 wrote:Euro has been atrocious this winter

That it has Tony since Juno it has well - blown!!

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Post by frank 638 Sat Feb 06, 2016 2:41 pm

Will this be a 6 +  storm for Tues for  snow

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 06, 2016 2:55 pm

I'm going with IVT over Cnj bring it on
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:41 pm

Frank sent this message to me:

THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:50 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Frank sent this message to me:

THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE

A Moderate event maybe, but it continues to trend NW with precip shield at least. Unless I'm out to lunch I don't see big snow, 3-6 maybe.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:52 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Frank sent this message to me:

THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE

A Moderate event maybe, but it continues to trend NW with precip shield at least. Unless I'm out to lunch I don't see big snow, 3-6 maybe.

Frank also sent this:

THE RH FIELD ON THE NAM IS LARGER THAN 12Z

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:54 pm

12k nam 3-6" 4k nam 6-12. It definitely came west can post pics I'm on my cell
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:56 pm

Rgem is West baby New York City Metro in Long Island get into some good snows
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 06, 2016 3:56 pm

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 9 Nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_14
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 9 Nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_15
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 9 Nam4km_asnow_neus_21

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:00 pm

It looks like coastal areas are in for big snows.
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:01 pm

Someone help me out here. Isn't it too early to use the NAM and Rgem, or are we in range?

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:01 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Frank sent this message to me:

THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE

A Moderate event maybe, but it continues to trend NW with precip shield at least. Unless I'm out to lunch I don't see big snow, 3-6 maybe.

Frank also sent this:

THE RH FIELD ON THE NAM IS LARGER THAN 12Z

CP, I told Frank what you said, his response:

TELL CP THIS IS A HIGH RATIO EVENT WITH A DECAYING CCB. IT'S 6+ FOR MANY

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:05 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Someone help me out here.  Isn't it too early to use the NAM and Rgem, or are we in range?  

Frank's response:

TELL JAMES MONDAY IS ONLY 48 HOURS AWAY.


AND THE NAM WAS NAILING JONAS FROM 84 HOURS OUT

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:06 pm

Frank and scott the rgem does something crazy as the low moves offshore it tries to redevelop closer to the coast and it's still snowing at the end of ats range.
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