February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
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Mathgod55
snowday111
Quietace
jimv45
WeatherJeff1224
devsman
snow247
Math23x7
docstox12
Grselig
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Joe Snow
oldtimer
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nutleyblizzard
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NjWeatherGuy
CPcantmeasuresnow
SNOW MAN
algae888
skinsfan1177
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frank 638
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35 posters
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow
I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.
Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I agree with you, the accuracy of modeling IVT's even 12-18 hours before the event I feel is +/-75 miles and intensity forecast quality is even lower. I specifically remember one from January 2014 which was modeled to far north and ended up over CNJ. Broad-brushing an area where it can likely to form, and give general accumulation amounts is a much better way to forecast these; and at least aware the public. Though I wouldn't say this one is exactly a true textbook IVT, more of a hybrid LP/IVT type deal with associated interaction with multiple centers.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow
I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.
Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
True Cp I was mentioning a particular run got me excited. I will say though with how it's been this year and years past Monmouth and ocean counties seem to be bullseye for so.e read on or another.Quietace wrote:I agree with you, the accuracy of modeling IVT's even 12-18 hours before the event I feel is +/-75 miles and intensity forecast quality is even lower. I specifically remember one from January 2014 which was modeled to far north and ended up over CNJ. Broad-brushing an area where it can likely to form, and give general accumulation amounts is a much better way to forecast these; and at least aware the public. Though I wouldn't say this one is exactly a true textbook IVT, more of a hybrid LP/IVT type deal with associated interaction with multiple centers.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I saw inverted trough showed 18-24 snj,cnj,Philly areas wow
I wouldn't count on anything I see from an IVT even 12 hours before the event. That will be all over the place during the next 60 hours, that I can guarantee.
Of course Skins you seem to be some kind of snow magnet so in your case it probably happens.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
12z UKIE loves wave 3. Wants nothing to do with wave 2
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I think there too many vorts coming along for the first wave to slow down and move up the coast and become captured. Think it goes OTS or scrapes SNE/coast and tail energy phases with clipper to form the miller B IVT, just my 2 cents.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Can anyone clarify which days are we talking about for wave 1, wave 2 and wave 3. Thanks!
snowday111- Posts : 92
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Upton:
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN OFFSHORE STORM MIGHT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE REGION APPEARS TO BE ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK FARTHER WEST.
A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BRING MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN TERMS OF FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN OFFSHORE STORM MIGHT PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE REGION APPEARS TO BE ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK FARTHER WEST.
A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BRING MORE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN TERMS OF FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
NjWeatherGuy wrote:I think there too many vorts coming along for the first wave to slow down and move up the coast and become captured. Think it goes OTS or scrapes SNE/coast and tail energy phases with clipper to form the miller B IVT, just my 2 cents.
Wave 1 was yesterday. Wave 2 is Monday and 3 is Tuesday.
12z Euro shows zilch. Nada. Nothing. Ugly.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
THE EURO - WTH ?? MY GOD EITHER IT IS ONTO SOMETHING OR IT IS OUT TO LUNCH AND HAS REALLY DIGRESSED BIG TIME.
WHAT A FRICKIN' QUAGMIRE AT THIS STAGE. HEADACHE CITY.
WHAT A FRICKIN' QUAGMIRE AT THIS STAGE. HEADACHE CITY.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKIE loves wave 3. Wants nothing to do with wave 2
FRANK IT HAS ALWAYS LOVE WAVE 3 - SINCE THURSDAY - HOPE IT VERIFIES AND IT HAS HAD THE HOT HAND - A SHAME TO SEE A BEAST OF A STORM GO OTS BUT IF HE IT CAN THE H OUT OF THE WAY AND ALLOW THE 3RD ONE TO BLOSSOM WE'LL TAKE IT.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
amugs wrote:this was 300 miles ots a few days ago - now we are looking at 50-75 miles trek west do put us in a warning criteria, 100 -150 to crush us - it can be done and has been before, why in the world did my wife invite friends over for the sb tomorrow??? CCB is 75 miles off the coast.
Meet you at Cornerstone for the 12z's tomorrow???
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Euro has been atrocious this winter
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Dunnzoo wrote:amugs wrote:this was 300 miles ots a few days ago - now we are looking at 50-75 miles trek west do put us in a warning criteria, 100 -150 to crush us - it can be done and has been before, why in the world did my wife invite friends over for the sb tomorrow??? CCB is 75 miles off the coast.
Meet you at Cornerstone for the 12z's tomorrow???
Maybe - I have 15 people coming over at 4 for SB, kids hockey at 10:30 in Westchester and need to pick up food from BJ's in Paramus on way home I will text you ok?
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Snow88 wrote:Euro has been atrocious this winter
That it has Tony since Juno it has well - blown!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Will this be a 6 + storm for Tues for snow
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I'm going with IVT over Cnj bring it on
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Frank sent this message to me:
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Math23x7 wrote:Frank sent this message to me:
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE
A Moderate event maybe, but it continues to trend NW with precip shield at least. Unless I'm out to lunch I don't see big snow, 3-6 maybe.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Math23x7 wrote:Frank sent this message to me:
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE
A Moderate event maybe, but it continues to trend NW with precip shield at least. Unless I'm out to lunch I don't see big snow, 3-6 maybe.
Frank also sent this:
THE RH FIELD ON THE NAM IS LARGER THAN 12Z
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
12k nam 3-6" 4k nam 6-12. It definitely came west can post pics I'm on my cell
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Rgem is West baby New York City Metro in Long Island get into some good snows
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
It looks like coastal areas are in for big snows.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Someone help me out here. Isn't it too early to use the NAM and Rgem, or are we in range?
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Math23x7 wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Math23x7 wrote:Frank sent this message to me:
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE
A Moderate event maybe, but it continues to trend NW with precip shield at least. Unless I'm out to lunch I don't see big snow, 3-6 maybe.
Frank also sent this:
THE RH FIELD ON THE NAM IS LARGER THAN 12Z
CP, I told Frank what you said, his response:
TELL CP THIS IS A HIGH RATIO EVENT WITH A DECAYING CCB. IT'S 6+ FOR MANY
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
syosnow94 wrote:Someone help me out here. Isn't it too early to use the NAM and Rgem, or are we in range?
Frank's response:
TELL JAMES MONDAY IS ONLY 48 HOURS AWAY.
AND THE NAM WAS NAILING JONAS FROM 84 HOURS OUT
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Frank and scott the rgem does something crazy as the low moves offshore it tries to redevelop closer to the coast and it's still snowing at the end of ats range.
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