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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:47 am

Good ratios with this?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:51 am

@sroc4 wrote:For those who want a little more general information on what a Norlun, or inverted trough is check out these links The video is great:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-norlun-trough/1351266009001
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/126/
http://wxedge.com/2013/01/20/what-is-a-norlun-trough/

thank you...
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:50 am

IVT on 12z gfs mainly CNJ on south 

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54


February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:20 am

GGEM IVT

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:48 am

frank and if these models verify...what would we be looking at...tx
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:01 pm

UKIE IVT

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:02 pm

I think most of eastern PA into SNJ-CNJ is looking at 3-6 inches Tuesday. NYC Metro is the tough forecast

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Post by frank 638 Sun Feb 07, 2016 2:17 pm

Frank do u think the snow totals will go up for Tues storm

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 07, 2016 2:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I think most of eastern PA into SNJ-CNJ is looking at 3-6 inches Tuesday. NYC Metro is the tough forecast

do you still think this is possible
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Post by Snow88 Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:22 am

Models are all over the place in regards to the trough
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Post by Snow88 Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:05 am

On this run, Euro develops an inverted trough but it hits the mid atlantic and SNJ.
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Post by Mathgod55 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:54 am

Hey guys wake up! Things have changed!
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:57 am

Yep, Norlun is creeping north on the 06z runs
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:00 am

It seems like all the Mets are saying something about the models are waffling on what's going to happen with snow total amounts for tomorrow afternoon. I guess that their talking about where the IVT sets up. Anybody have any info on what's going on ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:10 am

The inverted trough is likely to setup south of our area. DC-Philly-SNJ. I think there will be a period where it comes as far north as NYC too and stretch as far west as the PA/NJ boarder. Regardless of the IVT, I think everyone will get into snow showers tomorrow due to the unstable atmosphere and potent 500mb trough. 1-3 inches and for those who do get under the IVT could see 3-6" with locally higher amounts

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:22 am

Honestly Frank my guess with the IVT is that models almost never have the exact location nailed down.  I would not be surprised at all if it ends up setting up the heavier bands further north.  The one thing that it does look to do is stick aound.  My guess is that whoever reaps it benefits could end up with 6-12" when all is said and done.

I am actually hoping that the HV and NEPA gang get into that.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:27 am

Upton on the IVT:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE LOW...AND COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST TO ITS NORTH.
HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP ATTM...AND BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:38 am

I like thst I hope so as todsy looks like might bust for nyc area.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:13 am

@sroc4 wrote:Honestly Frank my guess with the IVT is that models almost never have the exact location nailed down.  I would not be surprised at all if it ends up setting up the heavier bands further north.  The one thing that it does look to do is stick aound.  My guess is that whoever reaps it benefits could end up with 6-12" when all is said and done.

I am actually hoping that the HV and NEPA gang get into that.

We appreciate the sentiment. Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up

This year we're like the uncoordinated kid in gym class that everyone cheers for when they manage to foul a ball off, or hit the rim in a pickup game. One of these days we may even score a basket.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:44 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Honestly Frank my guess with the IVT is that models almost never have the exact location nailed down.  I would not be surprised at all if it ends up setting up the heavier bands further north.  The one thing that it does look to do is stick aound.  My guess is that whoever reaps it benefits could end up with 6-12" when all is said and done.

I am actually hoping that the HV and NEPA gang get into that.

We appreciate the sentiment.  Thumbs up  Thumbs up  Thumbs up

This year we're like the uncoordinated kid in gym class that everyone cheers for when they manage to foul a ball off, or hit the rim in a pickup game. One of these days we may even score a basket.

Run Forest Run!!

I know what will happen, we will be forecasted for 1-2" come to work and then have to deal with driving home in 3-6". Was it March 2014 that this happened?

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:49 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Honestly Frank my guess with the IVT is that models almost never have the exact location nailed down.  I would not be surprised at all if it ends up setting up the heavier bands further north.  The one thing that it does look to do is stick aound.  My guess is that whoever reaps it benefits could end up with 6-12" when all is said and done.

I am actually hoping that the HV and NEPA gang get into that.

We appreciate the sentiment.  Thumbs up  Thumbs up  Thumbs up

This year we're like the uncoordinated kid in gym class that everyone cheers for when they manage to foul a ball off, or hit the rim in a pickup game. One of these days we may even score a basket.

lol! lol! lol!

This clip is the metaphor for the Hudson Valley winter this year.Totally ridiculous!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T-lyMcYM1E
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:28 am

NAM is north with this feature but SREFs and some other globals seem to want to focus the IVT further south like in SENJ back towards DC/MD/SEPA, this will not be an easy forecast, as storms have been unpredictable enough this year now we have an IVT where that sets up shop will recieve hefty snows with elsewhere just snow showers up to a couple inches. 12z NAM is good for the area but short range ensemble is concerning.
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Post by nujerzeedevil Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:58 am

For what it's worth:
http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2016/02/07/winter-storm-warning-suffolk-co-eastern-ct/
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:26 am

looks like inv trough will stay south of us. gfs and rgem really hit dc/philly hard....
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 Rgem_asnow_neus_16
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 Gfs_asnow_neus_14
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:33 am

cmc is about 2-4" for us more in line with nam...
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 13 Gem_asnow_neus_10
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