February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
looks like inv trough will stay south of us. gfs and rgem really hit dc/philly hard....
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
cmc is about 2-4" for us more in line with nam...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
comments from another board on inv trough
"here are sounding from gfs Here's to hoping the instability axis parks right across our region later tomorrow
into the evening. The core of this thing almost has a March 2009 type of intensity
look to it.
700-500 lapse rate: 7.71 C/km
Total Totals Index: 55.87 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
I took it off the GFS forecast soundings. The core of where that band sets up will probably have
some pretty good convective snowfall rates. We may have to wait until the nowcast to see where it
really sits and dumps. This almost looks like summer EML midlevel lapse rates
Look at the RH field instead of just the precip field . It`s well N of the precip grids . Also I agree with Chris we are very unstable , 'there are actually 2 mesoscale features that take off from E of AC to S of the BM between hours 18 and 42 on the GFS .
"here are sounding from gfs Here's to hoping the instability axis parks right across our region later tomorrow
into the evening. The core of this thing almost has a March 2009 type of intensity
look to it.
700-500 lapse rate: 7.71 C/km
Total Totals Index: 55.87 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
I took it off the GFS forecast soundings. The core of where that band sets up will probably have
some pretty good convective snowfall rates. We may have to wait until the nowcast to see where it
really sits and dumps. This almost looks like summer EML midlevel lapse rates
Look at the RH field instead of just the precip field . It`s well N of the precip grids . Also I agree with Chris we are very unstable , 'there are actually 2 mesoscale features that take off from E of AC to S of the BM between hours 18 and 42 on the GFS .
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
it's a very complex set up. almost like a summer time thunder storm scenario where we just do not know where this will be. yes a low is forming just south of nyc but the coastal has robbed much of it's moisture so not a typical low bombing out with expansive precip fields. more showery type snows. it's going to be more of a convective type precip shield. one place may jackpot and another close by not so much. most models have heavy convective snows south of us atm but some like nam and cmc have trended north.skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
At what point will we begin to see the IVT set up? Is that it starting at the end of the HRRR, or is that just energy coming out of the Ohio Valley and not related to the IVT?
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.
JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
UKIE PROBABLY HAS THE BEST IDEA OF THIS AND HAS HAD THE HOT HAND
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Rayno not enthused. Says maybe 1-2" but 3-6 southern jersey back through Philly into Baltimore.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Thanks Amugs and Algae what's the start time.amugs wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.
JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
skinsfan1177 wrote:Thanks Amugs and Algae what's the start time.amugs wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.
JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.
skins I imagine if anything is coming this weekend we should discuss in LR thread so as to not confuse this one, but yes I saw the Euro, it is a very mini system IF it happens.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Jman I was talking about tomorrow here.jmanley32 wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:Thanks Amugs and Algae what's the start time.amugs wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.
JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.
skins I imagine if anything is coming this weekend we should discuss in LR thread so as to not confuse this one, but yes I saw the Euro, it is a very mini system IF it happens.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
whoops that was mugs saying that sorry. about the mini blizzard.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I don't we won't see snow tom what a shame on to the next storm
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Nope I think we can shut this thread down, if anything its not going to be anything to call home about. But I wil lleave that up to the head honchos here.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
That's not the case for Cnj peeps on here
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Hold on guys, 18z NAM gives DC the IVT, but also gives us a nice little coastal tomorrow night.
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Needs to be watched.
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algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
That looks little interestingwhat about the euro
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
rgem agrees with nam...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
still going...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
I'm really confused right now so chance of snow tonight bigger chance Tommorrow night.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
9 hours of snow in the NNJ and NYC Metro area - this is 10:1 ratios - comes in at night giving us 12-15:1 ratios- here is a bookend surprise to Friday
This LP crawls from AC to the BM - RGEM, NAM have it in meoscale - HI TRES NAM, RGEM - this woudl be wave 3 comeback in a huge way for many who got skunked by today's Junmo part duece.
This LP crawls from AC to the BM - RGEM, NAM have it in meoscale - HI TRES NAM, RGEM - this woudl be wave 3 comeback in a huge way for many who got skunked by today's Junmo part duece.
Last edited by amugs on Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough
Really make?jake732 wrote:I have a winter storm WARNING. Do I believe it??
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