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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Guest Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:44 am

WOW all 3 models Jackpot DC to Philly.

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:50 am

comments from another board on inv trough
"here are sounding from gfs Here's to hoping the instability axis parks right across our region later tomorrow

into the evening. The core of this thing almost has a March 2009 type of intensity

look to it.
700-500 lapse rate: 7.71 C/km
Total Totals Index: 55.87 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

I took it off the GFS forecast soundings. The core of where that band sets up will probably have

some pretty good convective snowfall rates. We may have to wait until the nowcast to see where it

really sits and dumps. This almost looks like summer EML midlevel lapse rates
Look at the RH field instead of just the precip field . It`s well N of the precip grids . Also I agree with Chris we are very unstable , 'there are actually 2 mesoscale features that take off from E of AC to S of the BM between hours 18 and 42 on the GFS .



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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:49 pm

I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:59 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know
it's a very complex set up. almost like a summer time thunder storm scenario where we just do not know where this will be. yes a low is forming just south of nyc but the coastal has robbed much of it's moisture so not a typical low bombing out with expansive precip fields. more showery type snows. it's going to be more of a convective type precip shield. one place may jackpot and another close by not so much. most models have heavy convective snows south of us atm but some like nam and cmc have trended north.
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Post by Biggin23 Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:13 pm

At what point will we begin to see the IVT set up? Is that it starting at the end of the HRRR, or is that just energy coming out of the Ohio Valley and not related to the IVT?

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:15 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know

Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.


JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:21 pm

UKIE PROBABLY HAS THE BEST IDEA OF THIS AND HAS HAD THE HOT HAND

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000


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Post by Guest Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:29 pm

Rayno not enthused. Says maybe 1-2" but 3-6 southern jersey back through Philly into Baltimore.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:57 pm

@amugs wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know

Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.


JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.
Thanks Amugs and Algae what's the start time.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:18 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know

Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.


JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.
Thanks Amugs and Algae what's the start time.

skins I imagine if anything is coming this weekend we should discuss in LR thread so as to not confuse this one, but yes I saw the Euro, it is a very mini system IF it happens.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm hearing that it's really not so much a ivt more like a low that develops. Does anyone know

Skins correct - it is very complex just like this winter so far - yuo have a SLP that will form to the south of DC and scoot of the coast and then on its way out spawn another LP that looks to form off teh Jersey Coast and head ENE which COULD IF correct bring the mod snow more north. There is so much instability that we have so much swirling around it woudl not surprise me we have a LP pop off the coast and if this turd can swing more NE then we get a good snowfall from the Drisco bridge North. I am not betting on any of this since models locked in a DC to Philly to SNJ special.


JB is saying a mini blizzard is in the cards for this weekends storm - we shall see.
Thanks Amugs and Algae what's the start time.

skins I imagine if anything is coming this weekend we should discuss in LR thread so as to not confuse this one, but yes I saw the Euro, it is a very mini system IF it happens.
Jman I was talking about tomorrow here.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:39 pm

whoops that was mugs saying that sorry. about the mini blizzard.
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:06 pm

I don't we won't see snow tom what a shame on to the next storm

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:07 pm

Nope I think we can shut this thread down, if anything its not going to be anything to call home about. But I wil lleave that up to the head honchos here.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:14 pm

That's not the case for Cnj peeps on here
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:22 pm

Hold on guys, 18z NAM gives DC the IVT, but also gives us a nice little coastal tomorrow night.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:22 pm

Needs to be watched.
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:27 pm

18z nam
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_12
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 Namconus_asnow_neus_15
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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:49 pm

I have a winter storm WARNING. Do I believe it??
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:49 pm

That looks little interestingwhat about the euro

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:51 pm

rgem agrees with nam...
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016020818_033
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016020818_034
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016020818_035
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016020818_036
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:54 pm

still going...
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016020818_037
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016020818_039
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 I_nw_EST_2016020818_041
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:04 pm

I'm really confused right now so chance of snow tonight bigger chance Tommorrow night.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:04 pm

9 hours of snow in the NNJ and NYC Metro area - this is 10:1 ratios - comes in at night giving us 12-15:1 ratios- here is a bookend surprise to Friday

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 14 Namconus_asnow_neus_19

This LP crawls from AC to the BM - RGEM, NAM have it in meoscale - HI TRES NAM, RGEM - this woudl be wave 3 comeback in a huge way for many who got skunked by today's Junmo part duece.


Last edited by amugs on Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:04 pm

@jake732 wrote:I have a winter storm WARNING. Do I believe it??
Really make?
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