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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:09 pm

@algae888 wrote:rgem agrees with nam...
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 I_nw_EST_2016020818_033
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 I_nw_EST_2016020818_034
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 I_nw_EST_2016020818_035
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 I_nw_EST_2016020818_036

forget the first 3 hours:

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 I_nw_EST_2016020818_030
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 I_nw_EST_2016020818_031
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 I_nw_EST_2016020818_032

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:09 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really confused right now so chance of snow tonight bigger chance Tommorrow night.
some places will get some light snow tonight as precip rotates back over us then tomorrow late afternoon thru wens morning moderate snow for most as a coastal develops south of nyc 2-4" at 10-1 ratio's
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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:10 pm

Yes skinns I have a warning with 4to8 I don't believe t
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Post by Biggin23 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:11 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jake732 wrote:I have a winter storm WARNING. Do I believe it??
Really make?

Mt Holly has almost all of ocean county south 5-6 inches....good storm

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:12 pm

@jake732 wrote:Yes skinns I have a warning with 4to8 I don't believe t
Yes jake your right just saw it I guess they think Cnj is going to get the goods
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:13 pm

@ Skins and those who may seem confused - what Al and I are discussing is the possibility of another coastal popping up along the Jersey coast Tuesday night into Wed this is NOT the IVT at this time. The ivt is going to be s of us cnmj to philly and south to dc


Last edited by amugs on Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:14 pm

@jake732 wrote:Yes skinns I have a warning with 4to8 I don't believe t

hey if you don't mind me asking were are you located?
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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:16 pm

Lakewood nj. Ocean county
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Post by Biggin23 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:16 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jake732 wrote:Yes skinns I have a warning with 4to8 I don't believe t
Yes jake your right just saw it I guess they think Cnj is going to get the goods

Yes, a lot of recent guidance shows a decent storm for CNJ

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:16 pm

@amugs wrote:@ Skins and those who may seem confused - what Al and I are discussing is the possibility of another coastal popping up along the Jersey coast Tuesday night into Wed this is NOT the IVT at this time.
Got you this is what mt holly must be watching for tommorrow
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:17 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:@ Skins and those who may seem confused - what Al and I are discussing is the possibility of another coastal popping up along the Jersey coast Tuesday night into Wed this is NOT the IVT at this time.
Got you this is what mt holly must be watching for tommorrow

yes they are - you could get two mecs back to back!!!

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:19 pm

Here is my first call for tomorrow:

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Slide110

While this is only based on data through today's 12z runs, I would not be surprised if I have to add a little bit to the northern/western extent of my 3-6" zone, and maybe add a 6-9"/"locally up to 8/9" area based on what I have seen so far today. While there is still a broad consensus that the IVT stays largely south of NYC, some of the modeling is starting to hint that it may end up further north than it has been progged to, and instead of only targeting Baltimore/D.C. and possibly Philly, it looks to me like it has crawled northward to now also include central NJ and the eastern half of LI. This idea has support to me in looking at the mid-levels, as what used to be a shortwave begins to become sheared out as it rounds the base of the trough. Through PVA, it looks to hold together long enough to possibly bring some moderate snows further north. This also translates to H7, where a local closed-low beneath this shortwave/PVA may aid in enhancing omega for a  period of time tomorrow midday and afternoon. Another concern of mine is that these same forcing mechanisms may be just enough to develop a relatively weak coastal system right along the coast, and almost as an extension of the IVT, when combined with the large degree of baroclinic instability between the warm Atlantic and incoming Arctic airmass. While it may be weak and the forcing mechanisms may be declining in strength, this developing surface low could throw more moisture back over its northwestern side, mainly in the form of bands with some stratiform precipitation. This will be a key feature to watch in the very short-range guidance, as well as how the mid-level energy allows the levels beneath to evolve. Just my thoughts.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:24 pm

GOOD CALL RB AND LOOK AT THE FOLLOW UP WAVE - I AM GOING TO START A NEW THREAD FOR THIS

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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:24 pm

i was looking at the future cast it does not look good espe for nyc and east

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:24 pm

I am going to look at this in more detail when I get home but I think the dynamics at play are in fact due to the IVT. The axis simply shifts.

I want everyone to be very clear on this. IVT has HUGE bust or BOOm potential. I am willing to bet you will get folks down in the DC area crying because they busted because it either never materilaized, or set up different than what was modeled. This is the nature of an IVT. I NEVER trust the models verbatim to where they set up and trust even less so the amt of QPF they spit out over the areas they do show it set up. What appears to be a 4-6" event under the IVT can turn into 12-14" in a heart beat. Not saying that happens here but it has and will happen again.

We are all in the game still for this event.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:25 pm

@jake732 wrote:Lakewood nj. Ocean county
 tx Smile  We are not too far from each other I am in Hazlet...
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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Empty FEB 9-10TH COASTAL

Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:26 pm

FOLKS,

NAM, RGEM are calling for a coastal to pop up off teh jersey shore and travel ene to the benchmark at this time. Al is the first to catch this and I give him credit here.

18ZRgem map of liquid

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 PR_024-048_0000

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:27 pm

The map above is at 10:1 ratio but this bad boy is coming at night and it woudl be a 12 to 15:1 ratio type storm.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:28 pm

I'm not worried about the ivt more about the coastal.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:28 pm

snj is mostly rain for this one since the coastal is forming right over your heads

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 PR_000-048_0000

rain

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 RN_000-048_0000

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:31 pm

that is about .5 -.7 " of liquid if it serves on the rgem. nice little storm

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:32 pm

12Z Metogram precip charts

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Rgem_ensemble_precipitation_meteogram.thumb.jpg.7c450f50976f2247601d61ae46ab429b

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:33 pm

better view of rgem
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13
falls at night so should be better for stickage
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:36 pm

0z runs are big tonight for this


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:37 pm

rgem still snowing...
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 15 Rgem_asnow_neus_13
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