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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:33 am

@amugs wrote:SREF for WAVE 2 which is trending NW - this could mess up the Tuesday storm - not give it enough space to amplify! OR it be a big storm.

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 Sref_namer_087_precip_p24

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 Sref_namer_075_mslp
Joe cioffi just had a blog on it. Not good
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:52 am

Boys maybe Wave 2 turns out to be the big storm as it trends more and more nw like today's did.

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:58 am

syosnow94 wrote:Boys maybe Wave 2 turns out to be the big storm as it trends more and more nw like today's did.
nam...
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 Nam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:37 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:All the local Mets in my area have already wrote Tuesday's storm off as OTS. It just makes me shake my head. Their call is that there will be a clipper type system that will slip down from the North and push the main Low off the coast and OTS and the clipper will give us a light snowfall. I think it's way to early to make that kind of call already wouldn't you all agree ?  
 

This is an atrocious approach. The possibility of a Miller B storm and the "main low" acting as a 50/50 block is a plausible as what they describe. With the way the Jan 23 and current systems such a definitive statement is less than ideal to put it PC.

I heard that last night on channel 2 and this morning on channel 4 they are basically saying we will see more today than tuesday..this is a new england storm next week..
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:37 am

I have a sneaking suspicion we get a storm Jonas style from the next storm that was progged to go OTS, it has been coming back toward coast Euro now NAM, yes its days away but something just tells me that monster aint going ots. The two show events we have and including today have been surprise why not a 3rd.
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:02 am

@jmanley32 wrote:I have a sneaking suspicion we get a storm Jonas style from the next storm that was progged to go OTS, it has been coming back toward coast Euro now NAM, yes its days away but something just tells me that monster aint going ots.  The two show events we have and including today have been surprise why not a 3rd.

I agree jman, and don't see any reason to deny the pattern. Mugs posted earlier about the tendency for models to "perform poorly in the troposphere during/following stratospheric warming events". If the pattern is to correct N&W in the last two or three days before the storm, then we should look for the signs of that happened again, no?
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:08 am

@jmanley32 wrote:I have a sneaking suspicion we get a storm Jonas style from the next storm that was progged to go OTS, it has been coming back toward coast Euro now NAM, yes its days away but something just tells me that monster aint going ots.  The two show events we have and including today have been surprise why not a 3rd.
I've got that sneaky suspicion too. Don't count out wave 2 hitting us in the end. People are getting all bent out of shape of it not getting out of the way in time thus adversely effecting wave 3. I would keep an eye out with that first storm. There's a marked trend this year of storms coming west inside 72 hours. I can even see the possibility of a partial phase between the two lows if wave 2 slows down or wave 3 speeds up. Very interesting week ahead!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:17 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I have a sneaking suspicion we get a storm Jonas style from the next storm that was progged to go OTS, it has been coming back toward coast Euro now NAM, yes its days away but something just tells me that monster aint going ots.  The two show events we have and including today have been surprise why not a 3rd.
I've got that sneaky suspicion too. Don't count out wave 2 hitting us in the end. People are getting all bent out of shape of it not getting out of the way in time thus adversely effecting wave 3. I would keep an eye out with that first storm. There's a marked trend this year of storms coming west inside 72 hours. I can even see the possibility of a partial phase between the two lows if wave 2 slows down or wave 3 speeds up. Very interesting week ahead!

Bernie Rayno mentioned if they bump heads nothing will transpire. Maybe he is right I am not sure, a phase of two bombs would be epic. But that first system Monday is very powerful as it exits the coast. If it can find a way to head more NE than ENE we are golden.
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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:38 am

Nothing can be ruled out but wave 2 and 3 are just too close and not enough spacing for wave 3 to develop. Wave 2 goes OTS and wave 3 just gives light snow IMO. I wouldn't expect anything more than that specially in HV.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:49 am

@hyde345 wrote:Nothing can be ruled out but wave 2 and 3 are just too close and not enough spacing for wave 3 to develop. Wave 2 goes OTS and wave 3 just gives light snow IMO. I wouldn't expect anything more than that specially in HV.

Frank was pretty enthusiastic of a possible Godzilla in a post he made in this thread yesterday.  I wouldn't discount it at all.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:56 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:Nothing can be ruled out but wave 2 and 3 are just too close and not enough spacing for wave 3 to develop. Wave 2 goes OTS and wave 3 just gives light snow IMO. I wouldn't expect anything more than that specially in HV.

Frank was pretty enthusiastic of a possible Godzilla in a post he made in this thread yesterday.  I wouldn't discount it at all.

Yes, but he used the word possible, meaning anything is this far out, from 0 to Godzilla.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:56 am

GFS and CMC have next system a bit closer to coast, CMC gives cape some snow, lets see if this trends NW in upcoming days. But not a lot time left. The second system also gives us some light snow. Who knows gonna be tricky since they are so close.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2016 12:36 pm

He also mentioned he like the 14th timeframe better. The big problem is next week storms are to close together
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:GFS and CMC have next system  a bit closer to coast, CMC gives cape some snow, lets see if this trends NW in upcoming days.  But not a lot time left.  The second system also gives us some light snow.  Who knows gonna be tricky since they are so close.
The GEFS and cmc ensembles are west of the OP with Monday's storm. I think its time to focus on this wave and see if it can make it far enough west to give us a substantial impact. I believe it can. There's no denying the west trend this year!!!
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Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:28 pm

Both misses on the Euro
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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:03 pm

Snow Both misses on Euro So now we got nothing going for next week ? I thought the Euro was the one going for us Sad

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:16 pm

AND OFF TO THE RACES HERE WE GO AGAIN - WAVE SUN INTO MON - SUPER BOWL SPECIAL #3 - THE PAISANS ON HERE KNOW THIS IS AN ITALIAN BELIEF!!
SREFS - TREND THIS WEST - PURE MILLER A, CATCHES PART OF THE NORTHERN VORT INTO IT LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 Image.thumb.gif.308806ccd02abbf18614ca1f053b6f62

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 SREFUS6Precip15069

_________________
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:17 pm

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 Sref_namer_069_mslp

_________________
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:22 pm

I'm worried what Bernie Rayno has been saying is a possibility will transpire; both storms screw each other up and we get zilch.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:23 pm

2 things.

1. The NWS which I consider mostly useless has us for a 60% chance of snow on Monday and Monday night and......
2. I've seen these setups before where the low over the GL pulls the coastal closer. Plus every storm has trended significantly west inside of 3 days

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:26 pm

@amugs wrote:AND OFF TO THE RACES HERE WE GO AGAIN - WAVE SUN INTO MON - SUPER BOWL SPECIAL #3 - THE PAISANS ON HERE KNOW THIS IS AN ITALIAN BELIEF!!
SREFS - TREND THIS WEST - PURE MILLER A, CATCHES PART OF THE NORTHERN VORT INTO IT LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 Image.thumb.gif.308806ccd02abbf18614ca1f053b6f62

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 SREFUS6Precip15069

Sign me up right now. I'll take it as is and walk away, no regrets.
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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:30 pm

But what was the deal with the Euro today Mugs paisan

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:31 pm

@amugs wrote:AND OFF TO THE RACES HERE WE GO AGAIN - WAVE SUN INTO MON - SUPER BOWL SPECIAL #3 - THE PAISANS ON HERE KNOW THIS IS AN ITALIAN BELIEF!!
SREFS - TREND THIS WEST - PURE MILLER A, CATCHES PART OF THE NORTHERN VORT INTO IT LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 Image.thumb.gif.308806ccd02abbf18614ca1f053b6f62

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 3 SREFUS6Precip15069
Trend is our friend Mugs! Unlike most weather enthusiasts, I would like the two waves come as close together as possible. The SREF map above you just posted shows my line of thinking. You start to see interaction between the two lows. I don't think its not out of the realm of possibilities that the northern vort can pull the offshore low closer to the coast and have a partial phase at least. It would also help if we can get that trough to tilt negative which would ensure a capture.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:37 pm

I'm reading good stuff for the mo,day storm on another board. One of the knowledgable ones on their is all in on this storm after seeing nam
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:37 pm

Another weekend of parking my browser on NJStrong and hitting refresh. Love it!
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