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February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:38 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm worried what Bernie Rayno has been saying is a possibility will transpire; both storms screw each other up and we get zilch.

Soul, Bernie's 2:30 report seemed encouraging...
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/storm-to-threaten-mid-atlantic
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:49 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm worried what Bernie Rayno has been saying is a possibility will transpire; both storms screw each other up and we get zilch.

Soul, Bernie's 2:30 report seemed encouraging...
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/storm-to-threaten-mid-atlantic

I really like how he presents things. He really is good at laying it all out.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:54 pm

Bernies video is on pt. I believe that it will get drawn back in. He noted though Euro was OTS the trough had a neg tilt. GFS was more neutral but system closer. This has high impact potential IMO. Stay cautiously optimistic and at the end of his video the possibility that we get less than a 18 hr break with another possible system . WOW
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:54 pm

http://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_02/image.thumb.gif.b4c6f6823c90bb929108bce9caa449c1.gif
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:56 pm

I love Bernie. Very real and entertaining with his passion at the same time. He paints a snowy 2 to 3 day period. Maybe not heavy but hey we'll see. I love the fact he likes the models being east right now because they will trend west. Don't wanna be in the bullseye 4 days out

What are Frank's thoughts here. He's been eerily quiet today. Makes me think he has something up his sleeve for later

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:02 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm worried what Bernie Rayno has been saying is a possibility will transpire; both storms screw each other up and we get zilch.

Soul, Bernie's 2:30 report seemed encouraging...
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/storm-to-threaten-mid-atlantic

I really like how he presents things.  He really is good at laying it all out.  

He really is good at laying out all the possibilities, which seem to be many.

I love this at the end..."is it (the 1st low) gonna get drawn back in or does it go east and hit Nova Scotia? I can see either or, but the fact that the models have this east means look out it's gonna come west."
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:19 pm

Can't wait to read the analysis on next week from frank,sroc,amugs and so on
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:23 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm worried what Bernie Rayno has been saying is a possibility will transpire; both storms screw each other up and we get zilch.

Soul, Bernie's 2:30 report seemed encouraging...
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/storm-to-threaten-mid-atlantic

I really like how he presents things.  He really is good at laying it all out.  

He really is good at laying out all the possibilities, which seem to be many.

I love this at the end..."is it (the 1st low) gonna get drawn back in or does it go east and hit Nova Scotia? I can see either or, but the fact that the models have this east means look out it's gonna come west."

Thanks for the updated video, Essex! Haven't had a chance to check him on Twitter today. And completely agree, SROC; he really is awesome at making the most of 6 minutes and explaining setups thoroughly.

SREFs looked encouraging as well last I saw...
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:27 pm

wow on nws disco...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS
. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:28 pm

more disco...
DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:34 pm

@algae888 wrote:more disco...
DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS



That is a serious statement.
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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:35 pm

350 miles east of benchmark Does this really have a chance even if the trends could be west? Don't understand Help

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I love Bernie. Very real and entertaining with his passion at the same time. He paints a snowy 2 to 3 day period. Maybe not heavy but hey we'll see. I love the fact he likes the models being east right now because they will trend west.  Don't wanna be in the bullseye 4 days out

What are Frank's thoughts here. He's been eerily quiet today. Makes me think he has something up his sleeve for later

Actually I'm on my way into NYC for the night. I'll have thoughts up around 10pm. I already told my friend I need to use his laptop because I need to update my NJ Strong fam.

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:55 pm

this is nws snow forecast from 1am Monday thru 7pm Monday.
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 4 StormTotalSnowWeb1
and this max potential
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 4 MaxSnowWeb
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:05 pm

We can wait till tomorrow buddy. Have a fun night out. Don't sweat it

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:10 pm

Over the last month, we saw a low that was progged to be hundreds of miles SE of us trend back and give us our first measurable snow.

We saw models trend more NW and closer to the coast with Jonass!! after having it, losing it and then bringing it back.

We saw models completely screw up basic meteorology and were not developing precip far enough NW and then wala a better looking low formed near the BM,

Much of these trends happened last minute.

In this case, we have a northern stream diving south. We have a big time southern stream wave. If you think what you see now is the final solution, then you have not learned anything.

Its good to be cautious because there is always the chance it doesn't work out, but you cannot cancel anything. Not with how volatile the subtropical jet has been, and how loaded with moisture these systems are and lastly the TRENDS!!!

Fun times abound this week upcoming and I think my PD tres(3) call for next week with severe cold - momma mia is it going to plummet - clipper for next friday with a side of an arctic front with snow ratios as we saw last year on some storms - 18-24:1 type!!

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:We can wait till tomorrow buddy. Have a fun night out. Don't sweat it

Seriously! Enjoy a nice night off Frank, and hopefully you won't be hungover when you give your update tomorrow Very Happy Very Happy
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:17 pm

Actually I'm on my way into NYC for the night. I'll have thoughts up around 10pm. I already told my friend I need to use his laptop because I need to update my NJ Strong fam.[/quote]



Frank,Frank,Frank, its Friday night, you're going to the city, young and single, go to a club and chase some real models instead of some weather models. Very Happy You're only young once, but the weather will be around forever. tongue

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:26 pm

I think this probably stays a Miller B with a swath of moderate snowfall, 18z GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avn84.html
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Post by Grselig Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:55 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Actually I'm on my way into NYC for the night. I'll have thoughts up around 10pm. I already told my friend I need to use his laptop because I need to update my NJ Strong fam.



Frank,Frank,Frank, its Friday night, you're going to the city, young and single, go to a club and chase some real models instead of some weather models. Very Happy You're only young once, but the weather will be around forever. tongue[/quote]

Quite right. I hear the Miller sisters, Annette and Barbara, can create some unforgettable thunder snow.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:03 pm

lee goldberg said we could have 3 to 6 inches from mon night till wed morning i know that will change to higher

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:05 pm

The nws saying serious impacts is something though they said scrape they also said data messed up.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:18 pm

15z SREF

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:33 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:15z SREF

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture


That looks familiar............seems like I saw that a few weeks ago.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:40 pm

Wow many of those are monsters like feet of snow and major winds. Would make jonas look like a puppy.
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