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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map Empty 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:21 pm

First is first. Hats off to Tom, Mugs, Sroc, and others who did not give up on this event. I was sure this was going to remain a minor event for Long Island and the general area. They recognized the trend and warned everyone. Excellent job.

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map Gulf_flow

The current orientation of the 500mb trough is neutral and nicely dug into the Gulf of Mexico. Once again, another trough this year digging into the Gulf and tapping into the warm sea surface temperatures and sub-tropical jet stream. The Gulf flow is going to gradually increase qpf amounts on latest modeling and make this a wetter than currently advertised storm as long as the surface low tracks close enough to the coast.

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map 500mb_trough

The 500mb is modeled to go negative between 3-6am tomorrow morning. This is what will allow the surface low along the frontal boundary to tug closer to the coast and expand its precipitation field further N&W. The PVA associated with the 500mb trough is very impressive and goes right over our area.

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map Jet

Dynamics will also play a critical role thanks to the H250/200kt jet streak north of the area. This is one of the better jet streaks we've seen this year. Cold air should have no trouble getting down to the coast.

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map H7_4am

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map H7_7am

700mb vertical velocities are impressive for NYC Metro, especially Long Island. I think the better snowfall rates will occur from eastern NJ - NYC - LI. It would not shock me to see 1-2"/hour snow rates on the cold side of the baroclinic zone. There is usually lots of instability around that area.

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map 925mb_temps

925mb temps by 4am are beginning to crash S&E and are in the negatives for everyone by 7am. I think the changeover will take place between 2-4am from west to east, with NYC in the middle around 3am.


02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map Hrrr_ref_nyc_15

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map Rap_ref_nyc_13

The HRRR is on top and RAP at the bottom. The RAP is faster with the storm suggesting the heaviest will fall between 4-7am, while the HRRR is in line with a 6-8am time for the heaviest snow to fall. I am leaning more with the HRRR since the GFS and SREFS also agree with that timing.

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map Woof

The snow rates the GFS advertises is impressive. The morning commute to work is going to be a disaster for MANY people. The heaviest snow is expected to fall between 6-9am across much of the area. I highly suggest to work from home if you can.

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map February_2nd_storm_final_call

This is how I am expecting snow accumulations to go. Between the impressive dynamics, frontogenesis, enhanced precip from Gulf flow, and track of 500mb trough I am in the camp on seeing bullish snowfall amounts. We'll see how this goes! Definitely a nowcast type of storm.

Best,

Frank


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:30 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:27 pm

Wow, right on the edge of the 3-6, 4-8 line. I'd take anything in those ranges and walk away happy.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:30 pm

Why the hell do I keep thinking it's the 2nd????????????????

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:33 pm

Nice, generally agree with map and will release my own after priminary 0z guidance, think NWS is shooting low again
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Post by snowday111 Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Why the hell do I keep thinking it's the 2nd????????????????
Because your favorite movie is Groundhog Day! Very Happy

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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:38 pm

i agree with you frank tom ,sroc ,mugs and everyone else did not give up on this storm excellent job we all thought that this storm will be out to sea but now we are getting a minor event now bring on the storm and thank you frank and everyone else

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:54 pm

A newsletter has been sent to all members. It may take 1-2 hours until you get it since it's a mass email being sent to over 800 members.

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Post by Dtone Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:55 pm

Light rain now 52*

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:00 pm

Wow on the cusp of 4-8 I'll take the 3-6
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Post by snow247 Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:04 pm

Nice, I'm in the 4-8.

Currently cloudy here and 44*.
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Post by Grselig Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:20 pm

Thanks guys. I appreciate the warning. You all ROCK. Nice surprise
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:30 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Wow, right on the edge of the 3-6, 4-8 line. I'd take anything in those ranges and walk away happy.

Well, as Gabby Hayes used to say..."I'll be hornswoggled!!"

Who knew? The snow sniper team does it again, CP. If we see 4 inches from this, I'll sign right now.

Enjoy the snow, everybody!!!!
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Post by snowlover78 Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:36 pm

I am in the zone of 4-8". I am exited.

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Post by Vinnydula Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:38 pm

41 now getting chilly out
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:44 pm

18z JMA, a tick west of 12z

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=jma&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=jma&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=018&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:47 pm

23z RAP is the farthest NW so far w/ 1" line

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=23&fhour=18¶meter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:51 pm

HRRRX?

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=280526
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:51 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:23z RAP is the farthest NW so far w/ 1" line

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=23&fhour=18¶meter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

We shall see if it verifies but that is some move from 24 hours ago.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:01 pm

Updated map.  Im going to be off for awhile.  Giddy up!

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map Snow_m13

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:28 pm

I must say radar trends arent too great looking. Not seeing much in the way of westward expansion of precip shield and find QPF numbers some models print out here hard to believe. But ill be up late tonight so well see how this unfolds.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:45 pm

Well the 0z RAP is coming in and still looking good, hr 10

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=00&fhour=10¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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Post by Fededle22 Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:45 pm

So what is the expected timing for this storm? I saw that you are saying changeover between 2-4am but how long will it be snowing for us in the 4-7" range? Just trying to plan the day with the wife and kids. Thanks for all of your help guys. By the way, does the fact that this storm is having such as impact on us now, impact our chances for next weeks storm(s)?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:50 pm

@Fededle22 wrote:So what is the expected timing for this storm? I saw that you are saying changeover between 2-4am but how long will it be snowing for us in the 4-7" range? Just trying to plan the day with the wife and kids. Thanks for all of your help guys.  By the way, does the fact that this storm is having such as impact on us now, impact our chances for next weeks storm(s)?

I would say from what the models expect a nasty first half of the day, snowfall possible until around 10am-noon ending west to east. Will probably hit fast and furious if it does.... unless the NAM is right with this storm too lol then just a few hrs of light snow in the early morning with heavier east.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:52 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I must say radar trends arent too great looking. Not seeing much in the way of westward expansion of precip shield and find QPF numbers some models print out here hard to believe. But ill be up late tonight so well see how this unfolds.

Dynamics are not in play yet. They won't be until the middle of the night. 

@Fededle22 wrote:So what is the expected timing for this storm? I saw that you are saying changeover between 2-4am but how long will it be snowing for us in the 4-7" range? Just trying to plan the day with the wife and kids. Thanks for all of your help guys.  By the way, does the fact that this storm is having such as impact on us now, impact our chances for next weeks storm(s)?

It'll end between 11am-1pm. And no, I don't see this storm impacting next week's setup. If you read my blog from that thread you'll see there is a second wave that develops off the coast late Sunday that could affect the Tuesday storm.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I must say radar trends arent too great looking. Not seeing much in the way of westward expansion of precip shield and find QPF numbers some models print out here hard to believe. But ill be up late tonight so well see how this unfolds.

Dynamics are not in play yet. They won't be until the middle of the night. 

@Fededle22 wrote:So what is the expected timing for this storm? I saw that you are saying changeover between 2-4am but how long will it be snowing for us in the 4-7" range? Just trying to plan the day with the wife and kids. Thanks for all of your help guys.  By the way, does the fact that this storm is having such as impact on us now, impact our chances for next weeks storm(s)?

It'll end between 11am-1pm. And no, I don't see this storm impacting next week's setup. If you read my blog from that thread you'll see there is a second wave that develops off the coast late Sunday that could affect the Tuesday storm.
Yeah just looked at how its forecast to unfold via RAP composite reflectivity, 0z QPF totals out momentarily, looks to hold serve
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