Re: 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:52 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I must say radar trends arent too great looking. Not seeing much in the way of westward expansion of precip shield and find QPF numbers some models print out here hard to believe. But ill be up late tonight so well see how this unfolds.

Dynamics are not in play yet. They won't be until the middle of the night.

Fededle22 wrote:So what is the expected timing for this storm? I saw that you are saying changeover between 2-4am but how long will it be snowing for us in the 4-7" range? Just trying to plan the day with the wife and kids. Thanks for all of your help guys. By the way, does the fact that this storm is having such as impact on us now, impact our chances for next weeks storm(s)?

It'll end between 11am-1pm. And no, I don't see this storm impacting next week's setup. If you read my blog from that thread you'll see there is a second wave that develops off the coast late Sunday that could affect the Tuesday storm.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:I must say radar trends arent too great looking. Not seeing much in the way of westward expansion of precip shield and find QPF numbers some models print out here hard to believe. But ill be up late tonight so well see how this unfolds.

Dynamics are not in play yet. They won't be until the middle of the night.

Fededle22 wrote:So what is the expected timing for this storm? I saw that you are saying changeover between 2-4am but how long will it be snowing for us in the 4-7" range? Just trying to plan the day with the wife and kids. Thanks for all of your help guys. By the way, does the fact that this storm is having such as impact on us now, impact our chances for next weeks storm(s)?

It'll end between 11am-1pm. And no, I don't see this storm impacting next week's setup. If you read my blog from that thread you'll see there is a second wave that develops off the coast late Sunday that could affect the Tuesday storm.

Yeah just looked at how its forecast to unfold via RAP composite reflectivity, 0z QPF totals out momentarily, looks to hold serve

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:56 pm

00z NAM has sharp cutoff for NW people. Hopefully there's another frontogenesis to expand the snow bands west enough. Now cast event

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f19

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f19

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:57 pm

Worth noting the NAM doesn't bring the heaviest snow in until 7-8am.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:58 pm

0z RAP

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=00&fhour=17¶meter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:00 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM has sharp cutoff for NW people. Hopefully there's another frontogenesis to expand the snow bands west enough. Now cast event

Looks slightly NW from 18z, or about the same

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html#picture

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:01 pm

Actually, it is NW of 18z. You're right.

0z NAM
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_neus_6

18z NAM

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_neus_8

Like this

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM has sharp cutoff for NW people. Hopefully there's another frontogenesis to expand the snow bands west enough. Now cast event

No biggie, we're use to it.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:05 pm

1z RAP and it's still snowing

by **snow247** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:05 pm

Eastern LI upgraded to a warning.

Also noticed Orange County was added to the advisories, 2-4.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:06 pm

Latest HRRR

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:07 pm

18z NAVGEM was NW of the NAM, we'll see how this plays out

by **snow247** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:10 pm

Upton upped a lot of us to 3"-5" now.

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:12 pm

WSW for Suffolk County, LI now. 5-8"

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:13 pm

21z SREFs

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture

Still quite a spread, some really wind it up and some are a little faster to move it along, still a decent mean and a nowcast for sure

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:22 pm

Mt. Holly not confident enough to change 1-3" call. Some people will be surprised again I think. My location is close to the heavier precip cutoff.

Closest location to my house
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Montgomery+Volunteer+Fire+Department+1,+35+Belle+Mead+Griggstown+Road,+Belle+Mead,+NJ+08502,+United+States/@40.2315521,-74.7761644,10z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x89c3e91b9427621d:0x6b1bf1cde069eb52

by **sroc4** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:23 pm

aiannone wrote:WSW for Suffolk County, LI now. 5-8"

Anyone else having trouble with their main website?

by **bloc1357** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:WSW for Suffolk County, LI now. 5-8"

Anyone else having trouble with their main website?

yeah, uptons main page won't load. If I use new york it is fine

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:29 pm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

by **Math23x7** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:39 pm

Here are the 21Z SREF members for LaGuardia Airport for tomorrow's snow:

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Sreflg12

As shown above, the mean is ~6.36" and the median is ~6.24!

by **snow247** Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:40 pm

Probably lots of supers out there with a trigger finger who won't think twice about blowing the first snow day of the season on a few inches of snow. Especially being so late in the season.