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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:56 pm

00z NAM has sharp cutoff for NW people. Hopefully there's another frontogenesis to expand the snow bands west enough. Now cast event 

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f19

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:57 pm

Worth noting the NAM doesn't bring the heaviest snow in until 7-8am.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:58 pm

0z RAP

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=00&fhour=17¶meter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM has sharp cutoff for NW people. Hopefully there's another frontogenesis to expand the snow bands west enough. Now cast event 

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f19

Looks slightly NW from 18z, or about the same

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html#picture
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:01 pm

Actually, it is NW of 18z. You're right.




0z NAM
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_neus_6
 
18z NAM
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_neus_8

 Like this

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM has sharp cutoff for NW people. Hopefully there's another frontogenesis to expand the snow bands west enough. Now cast event 

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f19

No biggie, we're use to it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:05 pm

1z RAP and it's still snowing 

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Rap_snow_acc_neus_16.thumb.png.7ee17b6b7f9f48f52e735f4fd2571ef2

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Post by snow247 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:05 pm

Eastern LI upgraded to a warning.

Also noticed Orange County was added to the advisories, 2-4.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:06 pm

Latest HRRR

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Hrrr_2016020500_ref_ne.thumb.gif.9d1d6bc0b9bf57202c2e4942e8d1ee5c

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:07 pm

18z NAVGEM was NW of the NAM, we'll see how this plays out
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Post by snow247 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:10 pm

Upton upped a lot of us to 3"-5" now.
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:12 pm

WSW for Suffolk County, LI now. 5-8"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:13 pm

21z SREFs

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture

Still quite a spread, some really wind it up and some are a little faster to move it along, still a decent mean and a nowcast for sure
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:22 pm

Mt. Holly not confident enough to change 1-3" call. Some people will be surprised again I think. My location is close to the heavier precip cutoff.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:23 pm

@aiannone wrote:WSW for Suffolk County, LI now. 5-8"

Anyone else having trouble with their main website?

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Post by bloc1357 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:27 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:WSW for Suffolk County, LI now. 5-8"

Anyone else having trouble with their main website?

yeah, uptons main page won't load. If I use new york it is fine

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:29 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Stormt11
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:39 pm

Here are the 21Z SREF members for LaGuardia Airport for tomorrow's snow:

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Sreflg12

As shown above, the mean is ~6.36" and the median is ~6.24!

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Post by snow247 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:40 pm

Probably lots of supers out there with a trigger finger who won't think twice about blowing the first snow day of the season on a few inches of snow. Especially being so late in the season.


Last edited by snow247 on Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:40 pm

@aiannone wrote:02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Stormt11

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 12669510

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:44 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

THAT IS A BEAUTIFUL FETCH OF MOISTURE!!!!

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:45 pm

@amugs wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

THAT IS A BEAUTIFUL FETCH OF MOISTURE!!!!

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Wv-animated

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:48 pm

00z RGEM is very solid for most

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 I_nw_EST_2016020500_013

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:52 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.1930c3a7a916c4c34a2d315694835010
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.df26929a68c16ef98d32913900a0ff2e
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.9597b01d2efd3a6d22653336f043581b
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.af5468f0bad29f003d5179e9678823c3
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.e1768919a635dceec3b5bad53ed4f00c

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