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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:48 pm

This thread will solely focus on Monday's possible snowfall. I will start another thread for Tuesday's inverted trough. This is a very tough forecast and one that has high volatility. Meaning, I would not be surprised at all if I BUST with this call. There are only 2 models out of dozens supporting my 1st call snow map for Monday. However, given the set-up and jet dynamics I can see why these two models may be onto something. And let's not forget the NAM and SREFS also did very well with Jonas, another complex setup.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Wow

If there is one thing models do agree on it is the size and strength of this beast. We're looking at a sub 980mb low located well south and east of the 40/70 BM. In any normal circumstances the location of this mega-storm would bring minimal impacts to the coast because it's well off the coast. But this is not normal. Heck, it's not a normal winter!

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Jets

One of the reasons why this is not "any ol' storm" is because of these 250mb northern and southern jet streaks. The northern jet is exiting the picture as the 500mb low sits off the coast while the southern jet is getting ready to come up the coast. When winds are moving this quickly in the upper levels it usually creates instability and frontogenesis (lift) in the atmosphere. As long as there is sufficient PVA (positive vorticity advection) these dynamics will have energy to work with to promote snowfall across the area.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Gfs_z500_vort_neus_8

Between Monday's large coastal storm and Tuesday's inverted trough, both nicely shown in the above frame, our area is stuck between two areas of upper level PVA. What the NAM, SREFS, and RPM models are doing is they think Monday's coastal storm will track close enough to the coast to get partially captured by Tuesday's inverted trough. Given the jet dynamics this allows the precipitation field to expand west and bring light to moderate snow to much of the area.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Nam_invt

Here is a visual look of what I just explained. The NAM expands the precipitation field into the coast even though the coastal low is NOWHERE NEAR the BM. The BM is the red "X" and the modeled position of the surface low is the black "X." Look at what is moving into the Ohio Valley - the Inverted Trough!

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions 18z_nam_invt_2

As a result, the Monday system is partially captured and the PVA from both systems streams up the coast to promote prolonged snowfall over the area. The CCB is expansive and stretches from NYC to Maine.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Feb_8th_snow_map

Here is what I am thinking:

1. Monday's system will track close enough to the coast and partially phase with Tuesday's Inverted Trough.

2. Snow will break out over the coast first early Monday morning and slowly push inland as the CCB develops.

3. A high ratio light to moderate snow will fall through early to mid afternoon Monday.

4. Since the IVT is diving south I think DC to Philly Metro have the best shot of seeing snow from Tuesday's inverted trough, but I will speak about this system separately in another thread.

5. This has HIGH BUST potential as it's a very tricky set-up, but I rather prepare everyone on the board for snow than no snow. Just like Friday's storm when TV Mets were thinking only a C-1" myself and others warned a 3-6" snowfall is coming (almost 12" on LI!!!).

HUGE 00z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT! We'll see if any global models begin latching onto what the NAM/SREFS/RGEM are seeing!!!!

Best,

Frank

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:58 pm

Who loves the French? The French model is in agreement with the mesoscale models!

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Image.jpg.f1ceda310d7549832e2db5a3fa7ffb4d

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Post by RJB8525 Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Who loves the French? The French model is in agreement with the mesoscale models!

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Image.jpg.f1ceda310d7549832e2db5a3fa7ffb4d

Oh Merci!

Amazing write up I'm learning an amazing amount of information on models and tracking
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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:02 pm

Thanks Frank Could this monster still move west??

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:06 pm

For comparison purposes...
February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Rap_z516
February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Rap_pr13

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:07 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Thanks Frank  Could this monster still move west??

Well, one thing that I am looking into even though no models show this yet is the possibility of a secondary low forming right off the coast. As the monster storm moves up the eastern seaboard off the Carolina's and tracks northeast, there may be enough instability / convection close enough to the coast to allow a secondary low to form. If a secondary forms and track toward the BM that could bring additional snow to the area. As of now, this has no support and the "beast" is most likely to track east of the BM.

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:07 pm

Thanks Frank. What did nonna cook for you today? Laughing Laughing

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Post by frank 638 Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:10 pm

Thanks frank I still think that this Mon storm will come more west

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:12 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank.  What did nonna cook for you today? Laughing Laughing

Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers

No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank.  What did nonna cook for you today? Laughing Laughing

Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers

No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.  


nice!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:23 pm

18z RGEM IR Satellite. YES

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Image.thumb.png.da1af1c945c979e96199a7c805de3a96

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z RGEM IR Satellite. YES

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions Image.thumb.png.da1af1c945c979e96199a7c805de3a96

I'll take it!!!
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:29 pm

Very nice writeup Frank!

I was going to make a first call snow map, but I'm not so sure if I should now because I almost fully agree with yours.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank.  What did nonna cook for you today? Laughing Laughing

Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers

No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.  

Such a great meal, yet tomorrow you won't remember what you had????

Yesterday I had penne alla vodka, broccoli, and a garlic knot.  Today I had some leftovers of that.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:36 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank.  What did nonna cook for you today? Laughing Laughing

Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers

No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.  

Such a great meal, yet tomorrow you won't remember what you had????

Yesterday I had penne alla vodka, broccoli, and a garlic knot.  Today I had some leftovers of that.

lol! lol!

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:48 pm

SREFS ARE GOING TO BE HUGE - ONCE AGAIN THE MEOSCALE MODELS WILL LEAD THE WAY WITH THESE - THE GLOBALS WILL FRICKIN LIMP TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.

BEEN AWAY ALL DAY AND WOW THIS IS COMPLEX

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:57 pm

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions SN_000-048_0000

RGEM HI RES

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:11 pm

THE SREFS ARE WEST!!!!! ALERT ALERT THE LATEST SREFS ARE WEST BY ABOUT 10-15 MILES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

15Z

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions SREFNE24Precip15063

21Z

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions SREFNE24Precip21057

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:13 pm

I think their might of been a more pronounced SLP shift. Just by the way the offshore precip axis adjusted. Or the shield it self expanded.But i haven't looked.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:16 pm

@Quietace wrote:I think their might of been a more pronounced SLP shift. Just by the way the offshore precip axis adjusted. Or the shield it self expanded.But i haven't looked.

The Mean SLP did nudge east, but the trough over the midwest is more negatively tilted so the precip field is more expansive due to the better capture

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:21 pm

Srefs leading the way!!!!

SREFSSSSSSSSSS

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:25 pm

Yes yes yes. What model is next?
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:27 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes yes yes. What model is next?

NAM in a few.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:42 pm

Off topic, but Mike Trout just followed me. He's a huge weather weenie.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions 56b6a08a39bc0_February6201683928PMEST.thumb.png.5ae3009a019d4a76547dde652405d96b

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:44 pm

Cool, and a Jersey boy

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