NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Page 5 of 20 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 12 ... 20  Next

Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:18 am

The way this winter has gone anything is on the table.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by jake732 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:20 am

frank how many miles west does this beast have to come to get jersey shore some nice stuff?
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:22 am

@jake732 wrote:frank how many miles west does this beast have to come to get jersey shore some nice stuff?

The NAM was still 2-4 for you guys. Another 20 mile shift west and much of eastern NJ will be in the 3-6

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:25 am

If the coastal storm comes as far west as the NAM suggests I don't see how the IVT makes it north too. It's one or the other. The baroclinic zone is shunted S&E from the ocean storm and the 500mb energy stays south too.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:26 am

Snow for everyone on Monday

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_12.thumb.png.0b6f64863c4d944a3fdecd271f8a1f11

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:32 am

As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:34 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag

I'm pretty sure everyone will see accumulating snow Monday-Tuesday. Just a matter of determining how much. I'm very close to saying 2-4 incheS for everyone (both days combined) WITH POCKETS OF 6"+ WHERE THE IVT SETS UP.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Guest Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:00 am

Frank buddy. If it's one or the other not both, which one is preferable. What I mean is which one can give us the most snow?

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:07 am

www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif                                              
Check out this 3 hour pressure change map. I think this beast is really starting a trend N/W!!!
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Deed79 Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:13 am

Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks

Deed79

Posts : 2
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-12-31

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:16 am

syosnow94 wrote:Frank buddy.  If it's one or the other not both, which one is preferable.  What I mean is which one can give us the most snow?

The IVT is unpredictable. We can only go off trends and model guidance less than 12 hours away. The coastal is more clear cut even though there is incredible spread in guidance.

I'm going to say Tuesday will be better.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by snow247 Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:16 am

Look at that north push.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:17 am

@Deed79 wrote:Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks
The trough is currently Neg tilted and no longer closed off. The pressure change near the Carolina's is probably being caused by the slight kink in the 500mb isobars, and a large amount of divergence at 300mb situated over this area.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:18 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag

LOL, that's something new and different...areas S and E of us getting more snow.And as you say, look at jimv, hyde and Damian north of us.

Here's a horrible statistic for those guys that may play out.If the recent S and E trend continues, those guys up there may get less than 5 inches, if any, while the City is over 35 inches.Sharpen your pencil and see if that ever happened in the last 100 years,LOL!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:18 am

@Deed79 wrote:Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks

Hello Deed. Yes, the 500mb trough associated with the storm in the southeast is negative but it's not closed off. This means it will track more northeast than north. The reason why outer bands are reaching the coast is because of the HUGE RH (relative humidity) field mixing with 700mb frontogenesis (lift) in the atmosphere. It will be interesting to track the radar today.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:21 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Deed79 wrote:Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks

Hello Deed. Yes, the 500mb trough associated with the storm in the southeast is negative but it's not closed off. This means it will track more northeast than north. The reason why outer bands are reaching the coast is because of the HUGE RH (relative humidity) field mixing with 700mb frontogenesis (lift) in the atmosphere. It will be interesting to track the radar today.
February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Sfnt
February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 7fnt

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:22 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif                                                 Check out this 3 hour pressure change map. I think this beast is really starting a trend N/W!!!

Very impressive. Wow.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:23 am

500mb
February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 500mb
February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 300mb

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:23 am

Upper level Winds streaming north. HMMM MM

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Ua_vect_300

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Deed79 Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:24 am

Thanks guys keep up the great work

Deed79

Posts : 2
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-12-31

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:24 am

gfs is up next right..
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2932
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by HEATMISER Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:26 am

How much long till we see what the gfs says

HEATMISER

Posts : 62
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-11-22

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:27 am

This is amazing. Look at the trough over the Great Lakes digging south and east as the beast storm moves up the coast.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Sat_ir_us_loop-12

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:28 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:gfs is up next right..

@HEATMISER wrote:How much long till we see what the gfs says

At hour 6

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:30 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:This is amazing. Look at the trough over the Great Lakes digging south and east as the beast storm moves up the coast.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Sat_ir_us_loop-12

Any chance they phase, or to late and to far apart at this juncture.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 20 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 12 ... 20  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum