February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

weatherwatchermom wrote:gfs is up next right..

HEATMISER wrote:How much long till we see what the gfs says

At hour 6

Frank_Wx wrote:This is amazing. Look at the trough over the Great Lakes digging south and east as the beast storm moves up the coast.

Any chance they phase, or to late and to far apart at this juncture.

no body mentioned it but RGEM still does well over LI. It showed a heavy band over eastern Suffolk. Again subtle shifts could have huge implications. This system will likely have outer bands similar to a tropical system. If they swing through surprise increased totals is likely...again esp eastern sections.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:This is amazing. Look at the trough over the Great Lakes digging south and east as the beast storm moves up the coast.

Any chance they phase, or to late and to far apart at this juncture.

Too late. The southern energy is too far south and east. The friction in the atmosphere between the two will allow snow squalls to break out across the northeast late Monday into Tuesday. Very unstable atmosphere

FWIW
WRF ARW model:



WRF-NMM model:

Frank_Wx wrote:This is amazing. Look at the trough over the Great Lakes digging south and east as the beast storm moves up the coast.

it is amazing...

i also like to look at this when storms are coming

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.53,30.55,891/loc=-73.577,40.085 is that what a ccb looks like?

12z GFS is west of prior runs. Haha





HUGE SHIFT BY THE GFS

NAM vs current observations: Like has already been said the trough is neg already whereas the NAM has it more neural for same time. Def could be in for NW trends

Models may not be able to keep up with NW shifts vs current observations.

This is a few inches for LI

If you look at the water vapor loop the lip off sc looks as if it moves NE then briefly slows and now wobbles slightly west of due north. Plus the wind streams I remember you guys pointing out just before Jonas are pointing due north until south jersey when they begin to point NE. What's the chances all the models completely messed this up? (For the good)

Look GFS has same initiation issue as NAM. Current conditions vs 12z GFS initialization at 500mb. Trough in the SW is neutral on the GFS and even closed already; wheeas current observations clearly tilt it neg. Honestly further NW shift relative towhat GFS is showing is likely IMO

Someone on the other board said the northern stream system has almost slowed to a crawl, which could allow it to move north from it's current position.

Thoughts?

sroc4 wrote:Look GFS has same initiation issue as NAM.  Current conditions vs 12z GFS initialization at 500mb.  Trough in the SW is neutral on the GFS and even closed already; wheeas current observations clearly tilt it neg.  Honestly further NW shift relative towhat GFS is showing is likely IMO

Fantastic observation

In addition the GFS initialized the storm as a 995mb system.  Current observations have it at 1002mb.  AND the surface LP associated with the Incoming trough is much further S and E relative to current observations. GFS IS WRONG

syosnow94 wrote:If you look at the water vapor loop the lip off sc looks as if it moves NE then briefly slows and now wobbles slightly west of due north. Plus the wind streams I remember you guys pointing out just before Jonas are pointing due north until south jersey when they begin to point NE. What's the chances all the models completely messed this up? (For the good)

GFS just came NW to bring light snow into LI. I think if this keeps trending more folks will get into light accumulations and LI will get into moderate ones

Nice obs, sroc.

Sroc just realized your time stamp for mesoanalysis is 15z. Your comparing against 12z models. That's why they're different

Frank_Wx wrote:Sroc just realized your time stamp for mesoanalysis is 15z. Your comparing against 12z models. That's why they're different

Im not sure I completely understand. In theory the model image should indicate a time frame later than the current observation right? ie: valid for the 18z timeframe, vs the 15z current observation. So the trough is neg already whereas the GFS wants to keep it positive in its depiction for 18z. This is a good thing right? Or am I interpreting this wrong?

Frank_Wx wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

I'm pretty sure everyone will see accumulating snow Monday-Tuesday. Just a matter of determining how much. I'm very close to saying 2-4 incheS for everyone (both days combined) WITH POCKETS OF 6"+ WHERE THE IVT SETS UP.

Frank would this include the Morris county and EPA area or just Eastern most sections of NJ ? I have a feeling this Winter season (snow wise) is pretty much over in my neck of the woods. It just seems we're always on the very edge of all these systems this year.
The only hope I have for a decent snowfall is maybe between the 15th and 18th. The Mets out at Penn State spoke about this event in the 12 day outlook Friday evening. The only thing that made me nervous about this one was they said it could be a mixed event. Thanks.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carolinas-rad-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Sroc just realized your time stamp for mesoanalysis is 15z. Your comparing against 12z models. That's why they're different

Im not sure I completely understand.  In theory the model image should indicate a time frame later than the current observation right?  ie: valid for the 18z timeframe, vs the 15z current observation.  So the trough is neg already whereas the GFS wants to keep it positive in its depiction for 18z.  This is a good thing right?  Or am I interpreting this wrong?

The mesoanalysis shows it ran at 15z so you can only compare that against 15z model runs. There's a 3 hour difference between the time stamps you posted.

SNOW MAN wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

I'm pretty sure everyone will see accumulating snow Monday-Tuesday. Just a matter of determining how much. I'm very close to saying 2-4 incheS for everyone (both days combined) WITH POCKETS OF 6"+ WHERE THE IVT SETS UP.

Frank would this include the Morris county and  EPA  area or just Eastern most sections of NJ ? I have a feeling this Winter season (snow wise) is pretty much over in my neck of the woods. It just seems we're always on the very edge of all these systems this year.
 The only hope I have for a decent snowfall is maybe between the 15th and 18th. The Mets out at Penn State spoke about this event in the 12 day outlook Friday evening. The only thing that made me nervous about this one was they said it could be a mixed event. Thanks.

Snow should breakout in eastern PA tomorrow too. Best chance will be to your south and east though.

RAP

Are we still looking at 2-4 event for the coast Tommorow. And when should it start?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8wv.html

skinsfan1177 wrote:Are we still looking at 2-4 event for the coast Tommorow. And when should it start?

Yes, 6-7am