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February 9th-10th IVT Update

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:04 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Check out current radar. Look at all these bands rotating around the 500mb low. As the 500mb low track south and east we have to carefully watch where the norlun sets up and IF a Miller-B coastal low "pops" somewhere like Mugs showed with the RGEM

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 56b91385c9cef_RAD_MOS_REG_NE_N0R_ANI(38).thumb.gif.e00e01aa406d0c2162c226eb4894ee07

Dang what are the reports out of CT LI and MA? Must be over a foot in some places no? Doesnt lookt to end anytime soon either, just keeps rotating around, wish I was at my parents enjoying this.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:09 pm

I wrote this in the other thread and I am going to post it again. I agree with the general 1-3 Frank has but I think some of our members will be surprised in a good way by the IVT.

I want everyone to be very clear on this. IVT has HUGE bust or BOOM potential. I am willing to bet you will get folks down in the DC area crying because they busted because it either never materialized, or set up different than what was modeled. This is the nature of an IVT. I NEVER trust the models verbatim to where they set up and trust even less so the amt of QPF they spit out over the areas they do show it set up. What appears to be a 4-6" event under the IVT can turn into 12-14" in a heart beat. Not saying that happens here but it has and will happen again.

We are all in the game still for this event.
.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:11 pm

SREFS don't have the coastal and the IVT is way south.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:16 pm

FWIW, GEM-LAM precip total starting at 7AM tomorrow morning.

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SN_012-048_0000
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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:16 pm

They're not even out yet, are they; the 21z's? Lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:20 pm

SREFS are out but not on StormVista. Snow247 is right - they stink!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:20 pm

@snow247 wrote:FWIW, GEM-LAM precip total starting at 7AM tomorrow morning.

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SN_012-048_0000

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:26 pm

That would make a lot of people angry lmao especially if they watched the weather on the networks haha

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:28 pm

@rb924119 wrote:That would make a lot of people angry lmao especially if they watched the weather on the networks haha

SREFS DO pop a coastal, albeit late / weak

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREFUS6Precip21036

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:32 pm

I'm waiting for them to come out on the Ewall. I like those graphics lol

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:34 pm

GUYS THEY ARE PLAYING CATCH UP - U HAVE THE GEM LAM, RGEM, HI RES NAM AND REGULAR NAM NOW IT IS COMING AROUND, SREFS SHOWING THE COASTAL ALBEIT WEAK BUT IT IS THERE.

GLOBALS WILL NOT HIT THIS MUCH DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRESSURE OF THE SFC LP AND MSLP WATCH - MEOSCALE MODELS GOT IT .

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:34 pm

But that is interesting......that's two models now so far tonight. Trend is our friend?? If that happens, though, southern coastal sections definitely have p-type issues

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:35 pm

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

UGH, why am I tracking this? WHY

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:35 pm

DON'T FORGET THE UKIE- IMHO THIS IS ON NOW.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:36 pm

@amugs wrote:GUYS THEY ARE PLAYING CATCH UP - U HAVE THE GEM LAM, RGEM, HI RES NAM AND REGULAR NAM NOW IT IS COMING AROUND, SREFS SHOWING THE COASTAL ALBEIT WEAK BUT IT IS THERE.

GLOBALS WILL NOT HIT THIS MUCH DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRESSURE OF THE SFC LP AND MSLP WATCH - MEOSCALE MODELS GOT IT .

What a Face

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:36 pm

@amugs wrote:DON'T FORGET THE UKIE- IMHO THIS IS ON NOW.

UKIE shows nothing, I thought?

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:42 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:DON'T FORGET THE UKIE- IMHO THIS IS ON NOW.

UKIE shows nothing, I thought?

UKIE POPS THE LOW

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 P1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:45 pm

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 Image.gif.0a36047c6b1645a8925e98b7f191e640
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:50 pm

Looking at the new trend do u think the wwa come further  north

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:59 pm

Possibly. Have to see the rest of the guidance to say with any certainty though

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:00 pm

TREND NW
21Z

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREFUS3Precip21036
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREFNE24Precip21042

15 Z

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREFUS3Precip15042

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 SREFNE24Precip15048


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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:02 pm

So far this doesnt look too promising for anything more than the 1-3 but who knows like sroc said this could be nothing or a foot (not that this one in particular but I remember IVT that have gone crazy.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:06 pm

Snowing here
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:06 pm

Wow, doesnt even look like returns over me yet, snowing for about 20 mins and picking up a bit, 31 deg
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:11 pm

NAM!!!

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f25
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f30
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f31
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f32
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f33
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f34
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f35
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f36

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