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February 9th-10th IVT Update

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:55 pm

RGEM is a NEPA-HV-CT special 

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 4 Image.thumb.png.a5460783d67182530c71f8c3d251e4d9

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:55 pm

@amugs wrote:PRO MET STATED THIS:

Ratios would be killer with the insanely cold temps aloft and ridiculous instability/lapse rates, leading to plenty of lift in the snow growth zone. 15-20:1 is realistically possible at times.

Surface temp depiction is expected to be in the lower 30s when heaviest precip arrives. Unfortunately it may be high ratio aloft but on the surface it will immediately compact hence the 10:1 snow maps and forecasts.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:56 pm

RGEM! where do I sign?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:57 pm

Anyone got QPF or snow maps from RGEM? Imagine similar to NAM but a bit more north.
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Post by Fededle22 Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:58 pm

Hey Frank. The banner at the top says you posted a snow map but I can't seem to find it. Just wondering what are the possibilities are for tomorrow night into Wednesday. Can this really turn into a 6" event for NNJ? Any others are definitely welcome to chime in.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:01 pm

@Fededle22 wrote:Hey Frank. The banner at the top says you posted a snow map but I can't seem to find it. Just wondering what are the possibilities are for tomorrow night into Wednesday. Can this really turn into a 6" event for NNJ? Any others are definitely welcome to chime in.

Check very 1st post of the thread. 

I think if the coastal develops like latest models insist, there will be a band of 6"+ of snow to fall somewhere from CNJ to HV. Exactly where it sets up will remain a mystery until we see tomorrow's models. It won't develop until late in the day Tuesday anyway. Maybe 5pm.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:03 pm

@Fededle22 wrote:Hey Frank. The banner at the top says you posted a snow map but I can't seem to find it. Just wondering what are the possibilities are for tomorrow night into Wednesday. Can this really turn into a 6" event for NNJ? Any others are definitely welcome to chime in.
 6" is pushing it with the temps and QPF we're dealing with but possible. Really depends where the IVT sets up shop and stalls out.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:06 pm

Wow, I will sign for rgem now! I take back my thoughts for tomorrow, so this is less of a IVT and now a coastal so easier to predict? Frank so you think there could be 4+ here north suburbs of NYC, you know me and al's area, maybe even 6+ if we get lucky?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow, I will sign for rgem now!  I take back my thoughts for tomorrow, so this is less of a IVT and now a coastal so easier to predict? Frank so you think there could be 4+ here north suburbs of NYC, you know me and al's area, maybe even 6+ if we get lucky?

Yes. Ratios are good. Could be long duration event too.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Wow, I will sign for rgem now!  I take back my thoughts for tomorrow, so this is less of a IVT and now a coastal so easier to predict? Frank so you think there could be 4+ here north suburbs of NYC, you know me and al's area, maybe even 6+ if we get lucky?

Yes. Ratios are good. Could be long duration event too.

You da man! Hopefully we get thumped, I really do not like start time though evening rush errr....
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:22 pm

Will you be upping snow map, since you feel may be higher totals and if so when will you put that out, I imagine not till sometime tomorrow?
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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:27 pm

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 4 Rgem_asnow_neus_12

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:28 pm

Rgem, snow man for u!!
February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 4 SN_000-048_0000.thumb.gif.dac1afd4d0a652b1128eea9ece6dfa08

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:28 pm

I will gladly take 3" and run with it. Ratios may pull 4" out if that

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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:29 pm

I don't like this at friekin all! This is gonna give me much less!!!
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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:30 pm

FWIW 00z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX


Last edited by rb924119 on Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:31 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:30 pm

NFebruary 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 4 R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_NewYork.thumb.png.fc43f5d3a240347d317313e7ddc469ea

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:38 pm

I DON'T BELIEVE IT THE GFS POPS A COASTAL NOW TOO

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:38 pm

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 4 GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0030

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Post by Biggin23 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:39 pm

That band down south looks to be weakening. Hope it stays together. I saw 10 mins of light snow so I am going with a trace for my measurement today.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:41 pm

February 9th-10th IVT Update - Page 4 GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0036

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:41 pm

GFS ON BOARD NOW WITH THE COASTAL

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:42 pm

UKIE, GFS, NAM, HI RES NAM, RGEM, GEM LAM ALL HAVE COASTALS - GAME ON NOW??!!

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:43 pm

BOY DO I HAVE A GIFT FOR US NORTHERN FOLKS WHEN IT COMES OUT............

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:44 pm

It looks like there is decent concensus the IVT snow will be contained to southern PA - DC - SNJ. Maybe as far north as Allentown PA through CNJ. Then a weak coastal in conjunction with the 500-700mb lift will bring widespread snow from NEPA - NNJ - NYC - HV - LI - CT. 

Looks to me like everyone wins if it works out this way.

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