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Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:44 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Hey, does anybody know where I can find a good map for storm reports from this?? I want to self assess lol

http://www.weather.gov/erh/hydromet

Thanks Scott!!

Although it is still snowing over parts of the area, it would happen such that I busted in the areas that everybody on this board live in ahaha

Observations:

Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 7 Screen11

My second call:

Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 7 Slide113

As you can see, my max area verified pretty well, and for the most part, all areas south of I-80 and west of the Delaware River verified pretty well. My 5-7" zone did expand a bit too far to the east it appears, but only by about 40 miles. The north-south extent was spot on, and it's hard to tell about the western periphery, but I'll give myself a fail for that, since I do have a closed contour and since the terrain doesn't vary significantly in the lacking regions of the observations (it's fairly mountainous), that is justifiable. With respect to this region, I'll give myself a threat-score of 80%. Where I got burned was the eastern extents of my 3-5" and 1-3" zones across New Jersey, Long Island, and southeastern Connecticut. My forecast was reliant on the coastal low developing, which in hindsight, we now know never happened. Had this developed, I think I would have verified a lot better, but seeing the current radar, it looks like Frank's general 1-3" will end up having verified for most members of this, and to him I tip my hat. Well done!! Seeing as though my 1-3" should have spanned from the Delaware River (roughly) to where it meets the 3-5" zone in New Jersey on my map, and my 1-3" zone there should have been a "Coating-1", all of Long Island should have been "Coating-1", Connecticut will likely meet the low end of my criteria save the 3-5" region in the extreme corner of the map, and that this busted for a majority of the members of this board, I will rate my threat score as a 25% for these regions. Keeping things mathematically simple, averaging these out I end up with a final threat-score of 52.5%, which is clearly an "F".

If this was a test in school, I'd be devastated; I won't lie. While this was a tough forecast, as this seems to be a trend in the last two seasons, I REFUSE to use that a cop-out. On the other hand, I am very happy that I spatially and fairly accurately pinpointed the highest impact zone with the greatest amounts. In the end, this comes down to serving as a learning experience, and I don't think only for me. That's the point of doing this; this isn't hating on myself, or being envious of Frank's better forecast. This is a platform for all to engage in constructively criticizing myself, because that's how you (I) learn. Honestly, I think that I've finally found a method of forecasting that I can use consistently in order to predict amounts, even though I got burned this time. I can be happy with that, and look forward to the next one so that I can better develop this new forecasting method. Live and learn, and track on dudes and dudettes!!!
I think we all busted on this one, my call

[size=37]My forecast goes as follows...[/size]
[size=37]SCPA 4-8"+ Jackpot[/size]
[size=37]SEPA 3-6"[/size]
[size=37]Interior SNJ 3-6"[/size]
[size=37]Coastal NJ 1-4" (most south central, less north)[/size]
[size=37]CNJ 2-5" (less N)[/size]
[size=37]-NEPA 2-5" (less NW)[/size]
[size=37]-HV C-2" (less N)[/size]
[size=37]-NNJ 1-3" (less N)[/size]
[size=37]-NYC C-3" (sticking concerns in city depending on rates)[/size]
[size=37]-LI 1-3"[/size]
[size=37]-Indicates high volitality forecast, depends on how far banding gets, LI may see coastal enhancement but not present as of now[/size]
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:00 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:A 3 day discussion about a threat that produced flurries.

What about the past 2 storms that dumped on you and scraped the rest of us with a few inches that melted after a couple hours with none at all the last one? My area and areas to my west and south have gotten several hours of snow in 3 rounds, the first one two nights ago with about 1" that melted pretty quickly. Round 2 last night with another thick coating and round 3 early this morning and continuing now with another 1" or so as of now combining the two. Driving last night around 12am road conditions actually became hazardous as it began to stick on treated roadways after heavy rates for a couple hours. Its not always about what happens in your backyard. I could have whined about the last 2 unmercifully but considering we had a historic blizzard in an unusually warm January and winter overall so far NOBODY should be complaining (besides NEPA and HV people well below avg as of now, cut them a pass on that one). NYC south exceeded seasonal snowfall already, Im around 35" now after this and theres nothing to be complainy about...

Thank you Nj for not forgetting the NEPA people in your post. I'm hoping we can get at least one decent snowfall before this season goes in the books.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:38 am

Some back filling...have had light snow for about an hr or two.  Not accumulating on roads, but a light accum on the ground.  Maybe quater inch.  I will check in a bit

Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 7 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.4717391304347826&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=384.1013824884792&centery=209.26267281105987&transx=-15.898617511520797&transy=-30

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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