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Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0

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Post by oldtimer Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:44 pm

Sroc I hope so I thought there were more factors with this other than just looking at the radar

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Post by RJB8525 Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:45 pm

33* Radar looks like it wants to throw some flakes on me right now but just cloudy
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:46 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Sroc   I hope so  I thought there were more factors with this other than just looking at the radar

There are but ultimately its the combination of looking at radar, and even better, out the window, to know if you get snow in your backyard. geek

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:46 pm

Snow247, I just called my wife because I live under that blob that's over Eastern PA. She said the squirrel left more crumbs on my deck from a peanut he ate than there are snow flakes. It looks impressive, but my wife said she could probably count them as they fell that's how light it is.
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Post by oldtimer Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:48 pm

Thanks Sroc lol

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I don't know if they will or won't, but if the radar returns from Deleware hold together, (and they are heading this way) then I can see ALL members of this forum getting into some Heavy snow bands with potential thunder and 2-3" per hour rates this evening after 7 or 8 p.m

tx
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:01 pm

Wait didnt the NAM show the LP right next to LI? What am I missing it looks like its way out in the ocean already?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

This is a weird setup, been snowing on and off for a while now despite no returns, would say its steady light as of now, worried about how spotty it looks and would say the lucky ones probably get around 4" (in our area) some people in PA getting heavy amounts already but dont want it to dry up before it gets here.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:03 pm

@snow247 wrote:Hope this can hold together.

Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

Start facing reality already. It won't.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:05 pm

Steady light snow again here Laughing Laughing

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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:06 pm

18z Rgem is almost completely dry for the area. maybe the models were over playing the dynamics involved
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:07 pm

@algae888 wrote:18z Rgem is almost completely dry for the area.  maybe the models were over playing the dynamics involved

Now that's the winter of 2015/16 I've grown to hate.

The snow to rain early next week should polish me off for the rest of the winter.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:09 pm

Current observations:  Here is the loop to see in real time:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=off/orthographic=-73.77,38.30,3000

Look at the current radar.  I have circled the two most prominent lines of precip.  Want to know why?  Because that's where the best convergence is.  Right now there is no way the line down down in the Delmarva/S NJ holds together anywhere past central NJ at least for now due to the divergence in that area.  We need the LP center that Is east of the BM to get out of here, and hope the second LP center forms somewhere S of LI later tonight into tomorrow.  Will it happen...we'll see models aren't very encouraging at the moment.

Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Aaaa11
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Eeee11
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Dddd11

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:24 pm

@algae888 wrote:18z Rgem is almost completely dry for the area.  maybe the models were over playing the dynamics involved

FWIW (again probably not much) The NWS continues at their 4 pm update a winter weather advisory for 2-4" area wide with potentially more on LI. But it completely disagrees with Frank's scroll. They say light snow between 10 pm and 1 am then snow from 1 pm to noon tomorrow with Thunder possible in banding. Text forecast is actually 3-6" Again for an organization that is usually pretty conservative with their forecasts I wonder what they are looking at?

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Post by hyde345 Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:26 pm

@algae888 wrote:18z Rgem is almost completely dry for the area.  maybe the models were over playing the dynamics involved

Can you post please?
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Post by oldtimer Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:44 pm

Syo I'm sure Frank will give us a update soon The crawl on top was early on today

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:55 pm

Snowing quite steadily here and a light coating beginning to develop. Just up in Somerville (8 miles north) and barely a flurry. 32 degrees, 85% RH and 27 deg dew point, any others to compare these obs? Most weather apps will tell you what nearest station is reporting.
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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:08 pm

i am done with this storm from 2 to 4 inches to coating to 2 inches what a shame

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:09 pm

My forecast goes as follows...
SCPA 4-8"+ Jackpot
SEPA 3-6"
Interior SNJ 3-6"
Coastal NJ 1-4" (most south central, less north)
CNJ 2-5" (less N)
-NEPA 2-5" (less NW)
-HV C-2" (less N)
-NNJ 1-3" (less N)
-NYC C-3" (sticking concerns in city depending on rates)
-LI 1-3"
-Indicates high volitality forecast, depends on how far banding gets, LI may see coastal enhancement but not present as of now
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:15 pm

1000mb just SE of ACY

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:21 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:18z Rgem is almost completely dry for the area.  maybe the models were over playing the dynamics involved

Can you post please?
latest hrrr
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Hrrr_asnow_neus_14
rgem
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_12
gfs
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_neus_7
nam
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Namconus_asnow_neus_13
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:24 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:18z Rgem is almost completely dry for the area.  maybe the models were over playing the dynamics involved

Can you post please?
latest hrrr
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Hrrr_asnow_neus_14
rgem
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_12
gfs
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_neus_7
nam
Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Namconus_asnow_neus_13
Wow those look pretty terrible, I thought I was being conservative. May have to lower just issued forecast lol but ill wait to see what radar trends do over next few hrs.
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Post by Biggin23 Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:28 pm

Dumping in Farmingdale on my way home.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:33 pm

I'm done with this one. Maybe I wake up to a surprise, 100-1 against that happening.

Bring on PDIII, please.
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Post by Biggin23 Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:35 pm

Massive flakes as well

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:55 pm

This is the band of snow that we'll have to track how far north it gets. Then once the trough pulls out, the secondary low may pop off the coast even though I think it will be too far east to bring any impact to our area. I'm sticking with my snow map for a general 1-3 inches area wide, with 3"+ for those who get trapped under the IVT band. 

Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0  - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

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