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Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:44 am

Lots of snow and ice on the NAM, especially N&W. Big slop storm looking increasingly likely.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:44 am

We could see snow start as early as 3pm Monday

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:50 am

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 5 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60


Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 5 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 5 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:51 am

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 5 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:52 am

Hires NAM looks interesting.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:53 am

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 5 Image.thumb.png.b43953052af6d949e86fe08bfb15a38f

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:09 am

12z NAM shows a 2-5" front end thump for most of us, to short period of ZR to about an inch of rain.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:10 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 5 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78
Too bad the surface is too warm on the back end, upper 30s,  but thats the way it usually goes, backend never works out because the surface doesnt cool fast enough
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:16 am

Starting to get a little excited for us HV people could get a decent snow ice event.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:33 am

@jimv45 wrote:Starting to get a little excited for us HV people could get a decent snow ice event.

Agree. Very similar look to Valentine's Day 2014 when we received 21 inches. 10 on the front and 11 on the back. Mid levels will determine this for us. Either double digit snow or lots of sleet and ice. My thinking now is several inches of snow total 5-7 and lots of ice.

A lot better better than three days ago when I wrote this off as a rain storm.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:38 am

I remember that storm, CP. Heavy snow all day, then rain and a thunderstorm in the evening, and back to heavy snow at around 10PM. Total 16".
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:40 am

Yea me to cp i wrote it off as well but we got to have something good happen up here.  Just got to hope this trend continues!

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:50 am

Looks to me like 12z GFS is going be weaker with wave 1 energy which would put it further east. Only out to 54 on my mobile, so I could be behind the times haha

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:56 am

The 6z para GFS is mostly snow for you guys in the Hudson Valley
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:59 am

NEPA gets clapped this run on 12z GFS OP verbatim. 12+ EASY. Gonna happen too, you watch; Syo, the King of Snow this season will be there and with my presence back in Fishkill, the combination of these forces will undoubtedly lead to a blockbuster up there. You watch -_-

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:03 am

@algae888 wrote:The 6z para GFS is mostly snow for you guys in the Hudson Valley

Keep the positive vibes coming Al. I'm not sold on this one yet, but I like the trends
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:06 am

me to cp not sold yet but I could see 6 plus if things work out!!

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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:08 am

RB back in Fishkill? its got to be our time to get the goods.

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:11 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The 6z para GFS is mostly snow for you guys in the Hudson Valley

Keep the positive vibes coming Al. I'm not sold on this one yet, but I like the trends
Cp the jackpot zone on today's gfs is Northeast PA towards Binghamton. The over-running precip is delayed on the GFS today so only about an inch or two on the front side the city and coast go to rain. I believe you guys are going to have a lot of mixing issues probably freezing rain. If the storm is weaker the southerly winds will be weaker and it will be tough for surface temperatures to rise especially where you are.
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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:26 am

@algae888 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The 6z para GFS is mostly snow for you guys in the Hudson Valley

Keep the positive vibes coming Al. I'm not sold on this one yet, but I like the trends
Cp the jackpot zone on today's gfs is Northeast PA towards Binghamton. The over-running precip is delayed on the GFS today so only about an inch or two on the front side the city and coast go to rain. I believe you guys are going to have a lot of mixing issues probably freezing rain. If the storm is weaker the southerly winds will be weaker and it will be tough for surface temperatures to rise especially where you are.

I'm not sure what the thermal profiles look like but looking at that run ZR could be an issue in HV. 50 miles further east and we could get a decent amount of snow. We'll see.
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Post by mancave25 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:26 am

Does Sussex county get any rain or all snow

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:27 am

Looks like a Binghamton to Albany major snow storm?
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:31 am

Its getting funny Hyde now we want it to go further East! But I do think we will see some snow!! how much?

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:40 am

@WeatherBob wrote:Looks like a Binghamton to Albany major snow storm?
Yes also east central Pennsylvania. The CMC which was the furthest East shifted west while it still gives a nice front end snow it changes to rain through all of New Jersey and most of the Hudson Valley. The problem really isn't the low pressure track it's more the high pressure off the coast it's in a really bad spot
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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:59 am

@jimv45 wrote:Its getting funny Hyde now we want it to go further East!  But I do think we will see some snow!! how much?

It is funny Jim. We definitely need this to be weaker and go east. There will be front end snow to eventual rain but there could be a prolonged period of icing too. I'm not sure how quickly this arctic air will be scoured out at the surface in the valley. I really think this is going to be a mess of a storm.
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