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Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:35 pm

Gonna be nice storm for me. I will be enjoying my 3rd mecs of the year in a hellnino winter. Just call me the snowisperer

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Post by frank 638 Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:27 pm

Are we go it to have a second storm for Tues  night and wed with mix to snow

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:50 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Are we go it to have a second storm for Tues  night and wed with mix to snow

We have to see what happens with teh first one, if it is amped up no storm if it is weak sauce then we have another storm

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:53 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Are we go it to have a second storm for Tues  night and wed with mix to snow

Def a possibility. I mentioned this this morning. Second wave is intruiging to me.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:59 pm

Second one needs to dig farther south
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:05 pm

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_28

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:38 pm

NAM coming in way warmer.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:55 pm

Yep, much warmer than 18z. Great.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:04 pm

Horrible if the 0z NAM is right, snow to ice to heavy rain with this a few hours on its heels, will cause big problems if it verifies this way especiallly in my area S-ZR-R-S-ZR-S (combining the storms as one due to timing)

Sim Radar
http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016021400/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_27.png

Totals
http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016021400/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png


Terrible beginning to the week if this is coming
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:12 pm

Closest analog IMO

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/28-Jan-09-SurfaceMaps.html
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:14 pm

rgem nice front end dump...for city nand w
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2016021400_045
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2016021400_046
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2016021400_047
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2016021400_048
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:15 pm

4k nam
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 7 Nam4km_asnow_neus_21
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:19 pm

if we are looking for more than a front end dump with this system we are setting ourselves up for disappointment. even those of us in eastern pa.(james). euro probably going to be right with ukie however they both could be missing the front end. 2-4 maybe 6" in n/w areas before we all torch and rain imo.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:56 pm

0Z GFS
COATING TO 1" ON FRONT END - WAY WEST WITH LP - OVER CINCY FOR GODS SAKE THEN TO CENTRAL PA AND THEN UP THROUGH WESTERN NY STATE = WHOLE NE TORCHED

2ND WAVE IS NADA

LOVELY RUN BY THE GOOFUS!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:00 pm

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 7 Gfs_asnow_us_13

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:01 pm

GFS is rain all the way west to Buffalo and north to Quebec City. Sick.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:07 pm

2nd wave is DOA too.

At least we all get a free car wash to start the week.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:15 pm

And the snow drought continues for HV people thanks GFS.

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:16 pm

@jimv45 wrote:And the snow drought continues for HV people thanks GFS.

Yep. Finally a chance for HV members to catch up and we get a rain storm instead.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:22 pm

Snow just unbelievable with the cold we have!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:45 pm

GGEM may be warmer than the GFS. looks like the Euro may have been right all along.

Not surprised but disappointed. I'm sure tomorrow morning will find Central Park bottomed at 1. That will be the icing on the cake.

I'm hearing March 17th looks interesting.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:29 am

Yea this hasnt trended well
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 14, 2016 5:30 am

6z NAM is terrible, towel thrown

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_6z/etaloop.html#picture
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 14, 2016 7:20 am

NWS still going with 3 to 5 front end here but looking at some of these models, I think this thing will bust here.Hope I'm wrong.

I'm looking at a thermometer that says -8.4 and it's going to be soaking rain of 1-2 inches Tuesday in the 40's.It's to friggin' die for,LOL!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 14, 2016 7:24 am

@docstox12 wrote:NWS still going with 3 to 5 front end here but looking at some of these models, I think this thing will bust here.Hope I'm wrong.

I'm looking at a thermometer that says -8.4 and it's going to be soaking rain of 1-2 inches Tuesday in the 40's.It's to friggin' die for,LOL!
These temps are just unpleasant.
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