Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:

@docstox12 wrote:NWS still going with 3 to 5 front end here but looking at some of these models, I think this thing will bust here.Hope I'm wrong.

I'm looking at a thermometer that says -8.4 and it's going to be soaking rain of 1-2 inches Tuesday in the 40's.It's to friggin' die for,LOL!

These temps are just unpleasant.

Agree,Tom.Just a friggin' waste of money up the chimney heating the house.This cold air won't be worth a damn as that soaking rainstorm is coming a few days after.Hope it is just all rain so I don't have to deal with slop,UGH!!!

In 48 hrs IMBY the temp is expected to rise 52 degrees due to the storm cutting, will probably feel like someone turned the heater on and will be rolling with the windows down...

You got that right.Typical tri-state area phenomenon, seen it way to many times through the years.You gotta be way, way west and north to benefit from these storms to get away from the ocean.

@docstox12 wrote:You got that right.Typical tri-state area phenomenon, seen it way to many times through the years.You gotta be way, way west and north to benefit from these storms to get away from the ocean.

It's just the nature of these setups Doc it happens everywhere. If you're on the west side of these things your golden and the east side your warm. It happens in the Midwest all the time. A storm cuts up the Mississippi and Iowa gets a foot of snow and Chicago 50 and soaking rain. Any strong storm that moves NNE will kill anyone on its eastern side. It's just the nature of the beast.

I will have an updated impact map out this afternoon. Models trended west with the storm track over the last 24 hours. The euro gets a lot of credit with this one. Maybe there is a last push east on the 12z runs today. We'll see.

Does anybody know the rain/snow cutoff from the 0z Euro?

@TheAresian wrote:Does anybody know the rain/snow cutoff from the 0z Euro?

Besides an hour or two of front end wintry precip, the EURO shows rain for everyone

Thanks, Frank.

Nam has 2-4 for NYC before rain

The one time the euro gets something right this winter it's when it advertises a rainstorm

NAM 12z bullseyes me with white gold. Now I can only hope it pans out.

With the ground being very cold, almost completely frozen, I can see the rain freezing on contact and causing a mess around here.

Temp still in the single digits for many.

@Frank_Wx wrote:I will have an updated impact map out this afternoon. Models trended west with the storm track over the last 24 hours. The euro gets a lot of credit with this one. Maybe there is a last push east on the 12z runs today. We'll see.

Hey Thanks for the impact model you are gong to post..but, I hope you are going to enjoy your Valentine's Day a little bit!!!! Not just hugging a Model As Sroc says!!

NAM oes best with thermal temp profiles, goofus too warm with this, normal warm bias. NAM saying cold air hangs tough and as with waa at the beginning models usually underestimate this. We could se a nice front end dump as Frank noted and then more ice N&W of the city before we flip to rain. This is just my opinion here and what I have learned over the many years with such storms.

BTW NAM NAILED the temps.last night!!
Tonight since then pv will be to our ne we may get down to zero n&w of the city with ckear skiws and radiational cooling, wouldnt surprise me.

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:I will have an updated impact map out this afternoon. Models trended west with the storm track over the last 24 hours. The euro gets a lot of credit with this one. Maybe there is a last push east on the 12z runs today. We'll see.

Hey Thanks for the impact model you are gong to post..but,  I hope you are going to enjoy your Valentine's Day a little bit!!!! Not just hugging a Model As Sroc says!!

Hi Joanne - we'll be eating out today. Family all together. 

I told my mom the last 2 years she's been lucky cause I've been single so she by default is my valentine.

@amugs wrote:NAM oes best with thermal temp profiles, goofus too warm with this, normal warm bias. NAM saying cold air hangs tough and as with waa at the beginning models usually underestimate this. We could se a nice front end dump as Frank noted and then more ice  N&W of the city before we flip to rain. This is just my opinion here and what I have learned over the many years with such storms.

BTW NAM NAILED the temps.last night!!
Tonight since then pv will be to our ne we may get down to zero n&w of the city with ckear skiws and radiational cooling, wouldnt surprise me.

A front end dump? That doesn't sound pleasant.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@amugs wrote:NAM oes best with thermal temp profiles, goofus too warm with this, normal warm bias. NAM saying cold air hangs tough and as with waa at the beginning models usually underestimate this. We could se a nice front end dump as Frank noted and then more ice  N&W of the city before we flip to rain. This is just my opinion here and what I have learned over the many years with such storms.

BTW NAM NAILED the temps.last night!!
Tonight since then pv will be to our ne we may get down to zero n&w of the city with ckear skiws and radiational cooling, wouldnt surprise me.

A front end dump? That doesn't sound pleasant.

So Could their be a few inches of dump before the change in coastal areas.

We should all start rooting for rain and warmth around here. My logic is that since less than 1/3 of this winters threats have panned out for us maybe we can change our luck by hoping for the opposite. Then if our wishes work out 1/3 of the time we will get the cold snowy solutions 2/3 of the time. Reverse psychology to battle hellnino

syosnow94 wrote:We should all start rooting for rain and warmth around here. My logic is that since less than 1/3 of this winters threats have panned out for us maybe we can change our luck by hoping for the opposite. Then if our wishes work out 1/3 of the time we will get the cold snowy solutions 2/3 of the time. Reverse psychology to battle hellnino

I like it. Do the opposite. It worked for George Costanza.

syosnow94 wrote:We should all start rooting for rain and warmth around here. My logic is that since less than 1/3 of this winters threats have panned out for us maybe we can change our luck by hoping for the opposite. Then if our wishes work out 1/3 of the time we will get the cold snowy solutions 2/3 of the time. Reverse psychology to battle hellnino

I really want to see the beautiful spring time daffodils and colorful tulips. Oh the pretty pink roses and warm sunny skies and green grass. I never want to see snow again. I hope I never ever see record cold again. I hope it never snows again in my life. Come on early Spring. I believe in Puxatony Phil. YEAh.


I can't believe I just wrote that. It really was painful.

I'm an old fashioned blame guy. This went around last year.  

Combined with opposite negative thoughts and a scapegoat, we have a shot.  Just need to find the evil member and shut him or her down.   F@#$ science.  That and facts are way to complicated for a simple guy like me.  They always get in the way.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:I will have an updated impact map out this afternoon. Models trended west with the storm track over the last 24 hours. The euro gets a lot of credit with this one. Maybe there is a last push east on the 12z runs today. We'll see.

Hey Thanks for the impact model you are gong to post..but,  I hope you are going to enjoy your Valentine's Day a little bit!!!! Not just hugging a Model As Sroc says!!

Hi Joanne - we'll be eating out today. Family all together. 

I told my mom the last 2 years she's been lucky cause I've been single so she by default is my valentine.

Sweet!! I am happy you are spending day with Family..the 3 of us are hanging today..playing games and watching movies...I cherish these times!!

My first call

@Grselig wrote:I'm an old fashioned blame guy. This went around last year.  

Combined with opposite negative thoughts and a scapegoat, we have a shot.  Just need to find the evil member and shut him or her down.   F@#$ science.  That and facts are way to complicated for a simple guy like me.  They always get in the way.

Excellent sound, rational thinking GRES.

I believe we should search through the November threads and find someone that doesn't post much who touted  that they thought we would have a cold and snowy December. That should be our new sacrificial lamb and extradition proceedings should proceed immediately should that person be posting on other forums.  

We'll show that anonymous person not to mess with our winters. Our forum historian Math would be the best person to find the son of a bitch.