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Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:03 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Next a monster storm will back in from the ocean and hit north of us and then we will hit for the cycle!!

After these goofball sharp cutoffs, I'll believe anything can happen including what you say jim.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:10 pm

As the outsider, this is the first storm where a cold, more westerly track would jackpot me.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:19 pm

@TheAresian wrote:As the outsider, this is the first storm where a cold, more westerly track would jackpot me.

Good for you! These coastal huggers have been rough for you north and west guys.Hope it pans out.
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:26 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Next a monster storm will back in from the ocean and hit north of us and then we will hit for the cycle!!

Wouldn't that be more like a golden sombrero? Smile
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:36 pm

Aresian good luck! You look to be in a good spot right now.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:44 pm

SREFS not in good range yet but look good. 15z

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:04 pm

18 Z GFS SAYS HI - EURO YOU'RE TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER CONTINUES...

TOM MAY HAVE NAILED THIS ONE LIKE LAST FRIDAY!!

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SANOW TO SLT TO ZR FOR NNJ AND N & W STAY MOSTLY SNOW - EAST TREND AND WEAKER LP - COLD AIR HANGING TOUGH

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:05 pm

18z gfs looks like cmc. Low off the nj coast at hr 87. Very weak unlike the euro and Ukie
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:06 pm

FOLLOW UP WAVE IS INTERESTING

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:12 pm

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_us_17

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:14 pm

Wow mugs what a crazy run. Well another day closer and still no solution I personally like the weak strung out wave rather than the amped up that the euro and ukie are showing. Flow to progressive for anything to dig and become that amped Especially with the PNA Ridge collapsing
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:19 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea EURO basically has everyone in the northeast raining

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

Frank are you concerned at all about the massive wind out put on the Euro? its showing hurricane force gusts ov er LI and high TS pretty far inland from NYC (if you only look at surface sustained its 30+ over most the coastal areas LI 50+. I know rarely verify but was wondering if this setup warrents this or if the other models (which still show pretty strong winds) are more on par. If ice becomes a issue and wind we got a big problem.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:19 pm

@algae888 wrote:Wow mugs what a crazy run. Well another day closer and still no solution I personally like the weak strung out wave rather than the amped up that the euro and ukie are showing. Flow to progressive for anything to dig and become that amped Especially with the PNA Ridge collapsing

TOTALLY AGREE - SHOWING A STRUNG OUT H5 AND ALLOWS IT SLIDE EAST WHICH IS FINE BY ME - BIG CHANGES AT THE H5 AS FRANK WAS ALLUDING TO.
MORER UNS TO GO BUT WE SHALL SEE. THE WAVE BEHIND IT IS INTERESTING - IF IT CAN DIG MORE SOUTH BY A GOOD 100 MILES THEN WE CAN ALL GET A GOOD SNOWSTORM - NOT OUT OF THE REALM WITH THIS WINTER AND MODEL RUNS.

AS YOU STATED AL WE WANT A WEAK LP - ONE TIME WE WANT SUCH THIS WINTER. FEEL THE SNOW TO ICE FOR AREAS N&W OF TEH CITY - HOW FAR 20-25 MILES? MAYBE CLOSER TO THE CITY THAN ONE THINKS COLD AIR IS HANGING TOUGH THIS RUN.

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:22 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea EURO basically has everyone in the northeast raining

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

Frank are you concerned at all about the massive wind out put on the Euro?  its showing hurricane force gusts ov er LI and high TS pretty far inland from NYC (if you only look at surface sustained its 30+ over most the coastal areas LI 50+.  I know rarely verify but was wondering if this setup warrents this or if the other models (which still show pretty strong winds) are more on par.  If ice becomes a issue and wind we got a big problem.
JMAN!! Haven't we discussed how windstorms and ice storms never transpire in the city as models depict! Lol  Basketball
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:22 pm

@algae888 wrote:Wow mugs what a crazy run. Well another day closer and still no solution I personally like the weak strung out wave rather than the amped up that the euro and ukie are showing. Flow to progressive for anything to dig and become that amped Especially with the PNA Ridge collapsing

I haven't had time of late to look, but I know that this is what was shown a few days ago and earlier, which is why Frank and I both favored a complete OTS solution. Honestly, we might be seeing signs of the models returning to this idea. Again, I haven't had any time to look for myself, just quickly glance at all of the comments, so I could be "wide right" with this comment myself hahaha Should have more time over the weekend, though Smile

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:24 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea EURO basically has everyone in the northeast raining

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

Frank are you concerned at all about the massive wind out put on the Euro?  its showing hurricane force gusts ov er LI and high TS pretty far inland from NYC (if you only look at surface sustained its 30+ over most the coastal areas LI 50+.  I know rarely verify but was wondering if this setup warrents this or if the other models (which still show pretty strong winds) are more on par.  If ice becomes a issue and wind we got a big problem.
JMAN!! Haven't we discussed how windstorms and ice storms never transpire in the city as models depict! Lol  Basketball

I do not live on heat island. Was talking northern suburbs inland etc.
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Post by jwalsh Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:25 pm

Thanks for the analysis! For future reference, could I please have an explanation of the abbreviations used (PWA, s/w, etc.)? Very Happy
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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:26 pm

Wow, quite a different scenario than the Euro and we are only 4 days out. I'll sign up for that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:47 pm

The 18z GFS is quite remarkable. Instead of phasing the two energies like the EURO does, it keeps them separate and they come in two different storm systens. Remember a weaker storm actually means a wintry solution for most of us. A stronger storm will cut the low to our west and bring a minor front end thump then rain. 

Here are the scenarios in play:

1. Minor front end thump of snow and ice then 1-3 inches of rain and high winds 

2. Significant front end thump of snow and ice then 1-2 inches of rain 

3. Little rain and more snow. Major accumulations possible 

I don't think this storm is going out to sea.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:51 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Wow mugs what a crazy run. Well another day closer and still no solution I personally like the weak strung out wave rather than the amped up that the euro and ukie are showing. Flow to progressive for anything to dig and become that amped Especially with the PNA Ridge collapsing

I haven't had time of late to look, but I know that this is what was shown a few days ago and earlier, which is why Frank and I both favored a complete OTS solution. Honestly, we might be seeing signs of the models returning to this idea. Again, I haven't had any time to look for myself, just quickly glance at all of the comments, so I could be "wide right" with this comment myself hahaha Should have more time over the weekend, though Smile

I don't remember ever favoring an OTS solution for this storm. My only analysis I think is in the first post of this thread. Unless I said something in the LR thread. My memory is shot

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:58 pm

This storm is going to bury NCC and LI and there will be a sharp cutoff N and W

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Wow mugs what a crazy run. Well another day closer and still no solution I personally like the weak strung out wave rather than the amped up that the euro and ukie are showing. Flow to progressive for anything to dig and become that amped Especially with the PNA Ridge collapsing

I haven't had time of late to look, but I know that this is what was shown a few days ago and earlier, which is why Frank and I both favored a complete OTS solution. Honestly, we might be seeing signs of the models returning to this idea. Again, I haven't had any time to look for myself, just quickly glance at all of the comments, so I could be "wide right" with this comment myself hahaha Should have more time over the weekend, though Smile

I don't remember ever favoring an OTS solution for this storm. My only analysis I think is in the first post of this thread. Unless I said something in the LR thread. My memory is shot

My fault buddy, I should have been more specific. I think it was at the very beginning of this month in the LR thread you spoke highly of this period for a possible event, but then around the 5-7th (?) I remember you posting that the flow would be too progressive for this period for anything to materialize, which is what I referenced with the above post. The only reason that I remembered that is because I think I posted the exact same thing shortly before you did, and while updating myself later on read your post about it haha It was at least 7-10 days ago when we both posted about the progressiveness of the pattern; I remember that much lmfao

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The 18z GFS is quite remarkable. Instead of phasing the two energies like the EURO does, it keeps them separate and they come in two different storm systens. Remember a weaker storm actually means a wintry solution for most of us. A stronger storm will cut the low to our west and bring a minor front end thump then rain. 

I'll take sceneries #3 for $ 1000 please Frank!!

Here are the scenarios in play:

1. Minor front end thump of snow and ice then 1-3 inches of rain and high winds 

2. Significant front end thump of snow and ice then 1-2 inches of rain 

3. Little rain and more snow. Major accumulations possible 

I don't think this storm is going out to sea.

I will take sceneries #3 for $1000 please Frank!! cheers

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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:18 pm

Yes num 3  no rain or ice just snoooooowwwwewe

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:20 pm

Tomorrow guidance will be telling imo. The gfs has done very well imo overall with our winter storms

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