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Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

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WeatherBob
snow247
weatherwatchermom
mancave25
devsman
frank 638
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Post by devsman Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:40 pm

syosnow94 wrote:This storm is going to bury NCC and LI and there will be a sharp cutoff N and W

No one else laughed at this? lol, good one SYO. Crazy if it happens. LONG LIVE LONG ISLAND!
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:50 pm

SREFS LOOK LIKE 18Z GFS RUN GREAT FIR HV PEEPS !!!

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Post by mancave25 Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:52 pm

How about Sussex county nj

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:02 pm

syosnow94 wrote:This storm is going to bury NCC and LI and there will be a sharp cutoff N and W

All rain for attitude. Blizzard NW of 95 with a wide swath of heavy snow, snow to mix/rain around NYC, 2 seconds of snow to ALLLLLLLL rain for LI. LP right over your house 980mb lol.

Realistically, the far interior still has the best shot at heftier accumulating snows, not talking just NW of 95 but further NW than that. But, there may be a trend going on so its too early to rule anything out, could also go back west and give us all rain.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:04 pm

[quote="mancave25"]How about Sussex county nj[/quote

Look really good luke hv
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72]
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:07 pm

Tom if we get the weaker version and get two waves, front wave then the clipper behind it, the clipper can dig further south and swing off the coast and up by central long island or east of that.
An unphased solution is our best shot here.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:38 pm

Put out a preliminary forecast in the scroll. This applies to everyone...for now.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Put out a preliminary forecast in the scroll. This applies to everyone...for now.
Hey Frank tx...hope you are feeling better??
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:56 pm

I know I'm like 250 miles west of actual geographical qualification for membership, but just this once I'll ask for a quick and dirty guess on how this thing might shape up for the Finger Lakes region, particularly along the NY/PA border.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:29 pm

Frank good call right now. Hope the tend continues with a weaker east solution

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:50 pm

No comments on the 0Z NAM? It takes the low from west of Binghamton southeast over NYC.

Who knows if that verifies but it's certainly not a track you see very often.
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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:07 pm

00z GFS is a big rain storm.
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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:23 pm

@snow247 wrote:00z GFS is a big rain storm.

Actually in the HV its front end snow to FR then plain rain, then possibly changing back to snow before ending.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:16 am

6Z NAM AND 6Z GFS showing a lot more promise for this especially for the HV. When someone wakes up that has temp profiles I'd love to see how much of this is snow. It's weaker and east but still has ample moisture. Temperatures Are very close so I'm note sure how much is snow frozen or rain. On on my phone so maps are hard to come by. Help is appreciated.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:28 am

Hey CP on phone but wxbell. Shows quite a significant amount of ice just NW of nyc rain and snow but way nw.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:16 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:6Z NAM AND 6Z GFS showing a lot more promise for this especially for the HV. When someone wakes up that has temp profiles I'd love to see how much of this is snow.  It's weaker and east but still has ample moisture. Temperatures Are very close so I'm note sure how much is snow frozen or rain. On on my phone so maps are hard to come by. Help is appreciated.

According to NWS right now CP, 3 to 5 possible here in the HV but torches into the 40's Tuesday with soaking rain.This has to move further east to help us out here.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:41 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:6Z NAM AND 6Z GFS showing a lot more promise for this especially for the HV. When someone wakes up that has temp profiles I'd love to see how much of this is snow.  It's weaker and east but still has ample moisture. Temperatures Are very close so I'm note sure how much is snow frozen or rain. On on my phone so maps are hard to come by. Help is appreciated.
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Namconus_asnow_neus_29
nam
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_16
6z gfs
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:47 am

0z Euro caved to gfs idea of weaker slp last night, very goodbsign. HV boys and epa are on this one. Have a feeling it trends a bit more east due to this. Good trend overnight. Lots of ice nw of city.
850's are nrleg by 2* but surface is above freezing, don't know why? On phone heading to get my high , that's right from joe malafy my farm boy. OINK OINK!!

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:11 am

@algae888 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:6Z NAM AND 6Z GFS showing a lot more promise for this especially for the HV. When someone wakes up that has temp profiles I'd love to see how much of this is snow.  It's weaker and east but still has ample moisture. Temperatures Are very close so I'm note sure how much is snow frozen or rain. On on my phone so maps are hard to come by. Help is appreciated.
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Namconus_asnow_neus_29
nam
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_16
6z gfs

Still very early but the east and weaker trend looks good for my area.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:28 am

Still a fair amount of run to run inconsistency at 500mb; however I agree the euro has def trended towards the CMC/GFS/NAM soln of a weaker lead system for Monday into Tuesday. The other trend Im seeing is the trailing s/w is further apart from the lead wave. Models may end up keying in on this energy as the stronger piece. Reason this may be important is a HP is building to the N as it swings through, and ridge out west is building as well. Could we see this trend deeper into SE? Lead wave energy is just now coming ashore, and the second wave wont be onshore until tomorrow so changes to come Im sure.

12z Yesterday:

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 12z10


00Z last night...much weaker lead wave:

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Hr7810


Second wave for Wednesday:

GFS
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_us_16

CMC:
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gem_z500_vort_us_18

NAM:
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_29



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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:11 am

@sroc4 wrote:Still a fair amount of run to run inconsistency at 500mb; however I agree the euro has def trended towards the CMC/GFS/NAM soln of a weaker lead system for Monday into Tuesday.  The other trend Im seeing is the trailing s/w is further apart from the lead wave.  Models may end up keying in on this energy as the stronger piece.  Reason this may be important is a HP is building to the N as it swings through, and ridge out west is building as well. Could we see this trend deeper into SE?  Lead wave energy is just now coming ashore, and the second wave wont be onshore until tomorrow so changes to come Im sure.  

12z Yesterday:

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 12z10


00Z last night...much weaker lead wave:

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Hr7810


Second wave for Wednesday:

GFS
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_us_16

CMC:
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gem_z500_vort_us_18

NAM:
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_29


Great anazlysis sroc now the second system has a chance to bring snow to all.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:22 am

SREF spread very wide, not too terrible mean.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html#picture
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:23 am

@algae888 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:6Z NAM AND 6Z GFS showing a lot more promise for this especially for the HV. When someone wakes up that has temp profiles I'd love to see how much of this is snow.  It's weaker and east but still has ample moisture. Temperatures Are very close so I'm note sure how much is snow frozen or rain. On on my phone so maps are hard to come by. Help is appreciated.
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Namconus_asnow_neus_29
nam
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_16
6z gfs
Ugly for most of the area, slop storm city, need it east
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:38 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Still a fair amount of run to run inconsistency at 500mb; however I agree the euro has def trended towards the CMC/GFS/NAM soln of a weaker lead system for Monday into Tuesday.  The other trend Im seeing is the trailing s/w is further apart from the lead wave.  Models may end up keying in on this energy as the stronger piece.  Reason this may be important is a HP is building to the N as it swings through, and ridge out west is building as well. Could we see this trend deeper into SE?  Lead wave energy is just now coming ashore, and the second wave wont be onshore until tomorrow so changes to come Im sure.  

12z Yesterday:

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 12z10


00Z last night...much weaker lead wave:

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Hr7810


Second wave for Wednesday:

GFS
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_us_16

CMC:
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Gem_z500_vort_us_18

NAM:
Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_29


Great anazlysis sroc now the second system has a chance to bring snow to all.

wave spacing may be the issue here

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:39 am

So NE PA looks to be in a real good spot right now. I WONDER WHY???

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