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February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:50 pm

I hope everyone had a wonderful V-Day today. The work week is going to start off awful with snow, ice, and rain.

February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call 12719336_1042726292437727_735198894313402069_o

My biggest change from my 1st call to the final is cutting down on snow amounts in PA. Otherwise, it is relatively the same. The toughest part of the forecast is figuring out how much ice may accumulate. If the changeover is longer than expected, potentially due to the stubborn cold air, then we will see more ice accumulate in parts of interior and northern NJ. I also thing the flooding could be bad for some in NNJ and eastern PA. The ground is frozen so it will not absorb water as easily. Start and end times are posted on the map in the upper right.

The fun begins again post February 22nd. See long range thread for more details.

Best,

Frank

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 14, 2016 7:01 pm

Radar looking healthy
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:16 pm

NAM holding serve. 2"-4" for most, LI less.
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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Mon Feb 15, 2016 7:41 am

Got some light snow falling down here already. 18* shame it will be close to 60 with rain tomorrow!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 15, 2016 7:45 am

Light snow here
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Post by Teetghhuhnbhj Mon Feb 15, 2016 8:07 am

Yep. Light snow here as well

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 15, 2016 8:21 am

Light snow will fall from squalls but the main action is still well south of the area. The air is very dry so we may battle some virga.

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Post by Taffy Mon Feb 15, 2016 8:48 am

14 Degrees
Real Feel 7
Light snow
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Post by Fededle22 Mon Feb 15, 2016 8:54 am

Light snow here as well. The main storm is not supposed to get here until 3pm.... right?
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:23 am

Light snow 10*
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:25 am

Snowing, 10*F
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Post by Grselig Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:33 am

When is the ice going to hit. Don't mind driving in snow but ice is a different story
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:41 am

Flurries at 13*

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Post by Dtone Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:42 am

Light snow shower 20*

feels like a heat wave

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:49 am

@Grselig wrote:When is the ice going to hit.   Don't mind driving in snow but ice is a different story

From JB

JB-


February 15 09:35 AM
A winter storm warning has been issued around DC as the snow is coming in thickly with the wave I am counting on to leave a boundary behind that will have a tough time getting into the areas getting what is a snowstorm today, I like 3-6 in DC fading to 1-3 around NYC, but am getting more concerned this just comes up the I-95 corridor and carries the 3-6 into NYC, Amazing that was the first forecast there and what has changing it got me? Its back west of that where the snow is overforecasted, but the battle now becomes is it a big ice storm

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:49 am

@Grselig wrote:When is the ice going to hit.   Don't mind driving in snow but ice is a different story
about 10pm you could stay all frozen until second wave hits tomorrow. looks like first wave 1pm til 1am then a lot of our area dry slotted until around noon tomorrow. then a period of heavy rain tomorrow after noon with cold front...
February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call Namconus_ref_frzn_us_3
February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call Namconus_ref_frzn_us_7
February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call Namconus_ref_frzn_us_10
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:50 am

12K NAM

February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call Namconus_asnow_us_28

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:53 am

18* flurries on and off
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:54 am

do not be fooled 35* and rain tonight with such a cold ground will be more like frz rain for most of us. will have to wait to sunrise tomorrow to get out of the ice threat even with temps above frz.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:19 am

Latest HRRR has a prettyt decent front end thump even on LI esp the N shore. About 5 hrs worth. Cold air is always diff to scour out. Freezing rain will def be an issue for many, so everyone please be careful driving later.

February 15-16, 2016 OBS & Final Call Hrrr_2016021513_ref_neng

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Biggin23 Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:23 am

Wow, just saw reports of over 7 inches at my old house in southern MD. Good storm down there!

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Post by Biggin23 Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:33 am

Snow becoming more moderate here

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:40 am

Been flurrying since 9
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:43 am

I'm holding steady at 14* here... Good.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:45 am

13.1 flurrying very lightly for the last half hour
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