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February 22nd Snow Possible

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:07 pm

Wow that has a nice strip of moderate snow right over me for majority of the run.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:08 pm

Frank, the simulated radar and snow map show all rain?!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:09 pm

February 22nd Snow Possible  - Page 2 Untitl10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:10 pm

February 22nd Snow Possible  - Page 2 Untitl11
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:12 pm

So does the wrf. Are the models in error? Or are we missing something here?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:52 pm

Most likely a warm nose beneath 850 melts it before it reaches the surface. Check soundings.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:57 pm

Yup, that's exactly what it is. At 00z on Sunday night the column is above freezing from about 835 hPa to the surface. It's not until after at least 06z that snow even becomes a remote possibility, but the ground will still be too warm, especially with surface temps in the lower to mid-30s.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:57 pm

Surface temps are bad

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html#picture
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:59 pm

CMC is basically all rain, but usually has a warm bias, still, not too hyped about this due to temp profiles.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 19, 2016 5:42 pm

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj

Bernie Rayno today...
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:18 pm

I love Bernie. So enthusiastic and clear.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:29 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj

Bernie Rayno today...

If you haven't watched..HV guys and gals should.

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj

Bernie Rayno today...

If you haven't watched..HV guys and gals should.  

I watched his video and I wasn't sure if my area (EPA) would be rain/snow or a mix. It seemed like he felt that from Harrisburg PA. west would be hit the hardest as it stands right now. I know things will change though.
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Post by wilsocks Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:54 am

The tulips are coming up in midtown manhattan you know what that means springtime in new york city....
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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:23 am

Just saw the forecast from several TV Mets for next weeks storm. At the moment it's not looking good for our area. The Capper was the NWS says there's a 40%-50% chance that temps for March will be above normal.
 Please tell me we till have a chance to get one more decent snow event this season. Otherwise I'm going to have to say a line from one of my favorite movies. "It's over Johnny" and he reply's "nothing is over". I'm hoping he's right. UGH ! affraid
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 20, 2016 7:10 am

Looks dismal. Sunday night now light rain and next week is a mix at best, mostly rain.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 20, 2016 7:48 am

Closing this thread. Clipper looks like it will stay south of the area. And if there is precip, it'll likely fall in the form of rain. BL temps are too warm.

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