June 2013 Casual Observation/Discussion Thread

[Frank_Wx]

Lets keep it rolling here...

Potential tropical system this weekend. Look for blog release around 8pm. I see a lot of rain 1st half of this month, with average to below average temps.

[Frank_Wx]

Some moderate storms and showers developing at this hour

[Frank_Wx]

[Snow88]

Beautiful weather. 64 degrees. Nice and cool.

[Frank_Wx]

It is soooo nice outside

[Frank_Wx]

Some showers possible again this afternoon. Otherwise, remainder of the weekend should remain dry. More rain and possible t-storms likely early next week, then clearing out and remaining seasonable.

[Quietace]

Wow, rain threat Monday, Tuesday, and then Thursday and Friday.... we are in a very wet pattern. I don't know how much more water the ground and rivers can take.

[Quietace]

4km NAM has some serious rainfall over the area Monday.

This is only the Monday and tuesday Event.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea...lots of rain still to come. I think after this week, pattern turns a little drier (and milder)

[Quietace]

Wow, tommorow into tuesday seems like a lock for another 1-1.5+ inches. Lots of heavy convection will be in the area.

Then later in the week another system diving out of the midwest will enter the area, before moving off the coast then north. Again heavy rain.

[Frank_Wx]

Flood prone areas should be on alert

[Quietace]

The HPC For Today

[Snow88]

Soaker on the way

[Frank_Wx]

Another 1-2 inches today into tomorrow. Lots of rain. Dangerous flooding possible for flood prone zones

[Frank_Wx]

It could get interesting around here Thursday. A coastal low may try developing due to the strong blocking conditions. If one does, it will run into a favorable severe weather environment.

[Snow88]

Heavy rain right now. 0.22" so far on the day.

[Quietace]

Everything is flooded once again today. Route 35 is completely flooded over in a foot of water. Heavy rain all mourning so far. The ground just can't take any more water. That is something that worrys me alot about the late week system.

[Quietace]

Doppler radar estimates has me between 1.5 and 2 inches

[Snow88]

12z Euro has 1.50-2.00 inches of rain for NYC on Thursday. It also shows strong winds.

[Frank_Wx]

[Math23x7]

As of 4 PM, CPK has 7.09" of rain for June, currently making it the 10th wettest June on record. Here are the top 9 as they stand right now, along with the amount of rain from June 1st to 10th alone during those Junes

Wettest Amount Through June 10th
2003 10.27" 5.25"
2009 10.06" 3.89"
1903 9.78" 0.59"
1972 9.30" 0.93"
1989 8.79" 5.06"
2006 8.55" 6.15"
1887 7.76" N/A
1975 7.58" 4.02"
1938 7.13" 1.77"

I could not get precipitation data for specific dates for June 1887 because I could not find them, but with more rain on the way, this is to put the first ten days of June in perspective. Here is the link:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+%3E

[Frank_Wx]

And we still have about 2.5 weeks of June left

[Frank_Wx]

We are on pace for wettest June of all time

[Dunnzoo]

Wasn't the long range forecast for a cooler and wetter summer? Sure seems like it will be.....

[Quietace]

I know its a little early, but the Thursday/ Friday storm has a chance to be a "Nor-Easter." With the track it is taking, it could pose a hazard with storm surge. Most models are showing a strengthening LP that is sub 1000mb. Most models are increasing the total QPF and max wind speeds as the days go on. It will have a very good set up for bringing in very strong convection bands into the area, so im not surprised with what models are spitting out. Here is the GGEM.

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