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02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:33 am

And here's a hint...not much.

Please read my latest Mo Mo to see why February 27th - March 5th may be our last sustained wintry period until 2016-2017. Key words are sustained. There may be times in March we get below normal and even see some snow, but it will likely be quick hitting.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/02/022216-mo-mo-figuring-out-whats-left-of.html


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:13 am

Nice write up Frank, good to have the mo mo back.

BTW the average HIGH temperature in NYC on March 1st is 45, it doesn't hit 50 until March 16th, and reaches 55 on March 31st.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:04 am

Thanks for the Mo Mo and analysis Frank.
When we least expect it is when it will happen.
Agree once teh trop forcing starts to shift east then I think we are done like you said until next winter.

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:10 am

Thank you for the latest MoMo
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:18 am

Good Mo Mo Frank. No thanks on the cold with no snow scenario. After being outdoors the last few days and enjoying myself I'm ready for spring. Golfing and fishing time. If it's gonna be cold give me snow or no thank you.

I guess you must be feeling better if you put out a detailed mo mo like this. That's good news

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02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Empty Re: 02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:08 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Nice write up Frank, good to have the mo mo back.

BTW the average HIGH temperature in NYC on March 1st is 45, it doesn't hit 50 until March 16th, and reaches 55 on March 31st.

Thanks, AccuWeather had a historical average of 50 degrees by March 10th or so. Unless I read it wrong.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:10 am

syosnow94 wrote:Good Mo Mo Frank.  No thanks on the cold with no snow scenario.  After being outdoors the last few days and enjoying myself I'm ready for spring.  Golfing and fishing time.  If it's gonna be cold give me snow or no thank you.  

I guess you must be feeling better if you put out a detailed mo mo like this.  That's good news

March 1st - 5th is when I say it will be cold with our best chance of a winter storm. And yes, I'm feeling better. Thanks again to everyone for the well wishes.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:51 am

Thanks for the write up!

come on snow..one last blast..I promise not to complain with shoveling...lol..husband going to be away on business trip...Positive energy...PJ's inside out this week!!

Glad to hear you are feeling better!!

Happy Monday Everyone!
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:09 pm

i am glad you are feeling better frank and thank u for ur post .i say winter is almost over march does not look to good for snow wise i just want one more beast then i will be happy .but i do look forward for spring i am ready for yankee games fishing bbq

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:14 pm

Today's LR models insist winter will continue beyond March 5th. I have a feeling we're going to see a lot of flip flopping through the course of this week. Like I stated in my Mo Mo, if the tropical forcing sets up east of the Dateline then I don't see how a cold pattern continues after March 5th. It's possible the CFS is incorrect in its depiction of the forcing and may be rushing things. If this is true, expect the cold pattern to last beyond March 5th to at least March 10th. Good news!! Let's hope today's ensembles have the right idea. Here the Day 15 height anomalies. Notice how the +PNA is maintained. 

EPS

02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Eps_z500a_noram_61

GEFS

02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Gefs_z500a_noram_61

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02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Empty Re: 02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 23, 2016 7:35 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's LR models insist winter will continue beyond March 5th. I have a feeling we're going to see a lot of flip flopping through the course of this week. Like I stated in my Mo Mo, if the tropical forcing sets up east of the Dateline then I don't see how a cold pattern continues after March 5th. It's possible the CFS is incorrect in its depiction of the forcing and may be rushing things. If this is true, expect the cold pattern to last beyond March 5th to at least March 10th. Good news!! Let's hope today's ensembles have the right idea. Here the Day 15 height anomalies. Notice how the +PNA is maintained. 

EPS

02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Eps_z500a_noram_61

GEFS

02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Gefs_z500a_noram_61

Honestly I am glad you posted this.  As long as we see the trough S of the Aleutians, and the strong positives in NW Canada/Arctic winter will likely hold on.  Obv as we head into March climatology will limit the staying power to the cold, but winter storm chances through at least mid March should be there.  Again so long as the Sub Aleutian trough does not end up along the west coast of NA. The LR 500mb anomalies have done a pretty horrible job of verifying/recognizing the pattern regardless of which ensemble forecast you look at. The LR MJO forecasts, esp the GFS, has done poorly as well, constantly correcting as time marches on. Should be interesting to see how the remainder of this season plays out. Im not going to lie, the talk of golf, and fishing by Doc and Syo initiated a smidge of cabin fever...just a smidge.  

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 23, 2016 8:33 am

Sroc. I'd much rather cold and snow this time of year, but with the lack of both this season (with the exception of a ten day period) cabin fever to a fly fisherman like me sets in pretty bad this time of year.

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02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Empty Re: 02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter

Post by oldtimer Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:01 am

Gee. Local METS calling for 50 early next week. Where is the cold air after the current system departs Thrusday

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02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Empty Re: 02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:07 am

@oldtimer wrote:Gee. Local METS calling for 50 early next week. Where is  the cold air after the current system departs Thrusday

Arctic blast was the wrong terminology to use to coin the pattern between the 27th-5th. It will be more seasonable with some days below normal. 

Friday afternoon will be -3 to -6 below normal 

02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Gfs_T2ma_neus_16

Saturday just slightly below 

02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Gfs_T2ma_neus_20

Then Sunday we'll be above because there is a clipper in Canada dropping into Great Lakes then cutting back north. This turns our winds over from the south. 

02/22/16 Mo Mo: Figuring Out What's Left Of Winter Gfs_T2ma_neus_24

Then every day next week should be below normal. But below normal this time of year could be lower 40s. I don't see a day next week where it will be 50 degrees (other than Sunday).

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Post by oldtimer Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:20 am

Thanks Frank Glad you are feeling better That clears it up nicely so we know what to expect

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